Excess Deaths in Young Canadians Jump to 27 Percent

People are seen in silhouette while walking along the shore of Lake Ontario, underneath a canopy of fall leaves, on Oct. 5, 2022. Alex Lupul/The Canadian Press

Canadians up to age 44 saw 27 percent more deaths than expected in the last five months of 2022, a big jump compared to the 19 percent seen from the onset of the pandemic in March 2020 up until August 2022, according to Statistics Canada data analyzed by The Epoch Times.

The 27 percent excess deaths among Canadians below age 44 represent 1,597 more deaths than expected between August and December 2022, or 10 extra deaths per day.

Excess mortality takes place when more people die during a given period than normally expected based on trends.

The rate in younger people is significantly higher when compared to older Canadians, although there has been an overall increase in excess deaths in all age groups.

Previously analyzed Statistics Canada data shows that excess mortality for all ages from March 2020 to August 2022 was 7 percent, while for the last five months of 2022, it jumped to over 13 percent.

COVID-19 has been a significant cause of excess mortality, but it has not been a big factor among younger people. Health Canada data indicates there were 102 fatalities attributed to COVID-19 in the 0–49 age group between August and December 2022.

So what caused close to 1,600 estimated excess deaths in the younger age group over the five-month period if COVID-19 wasn’t an important factor?

Government Points to Overdoses

When asked to comment on the 27 percent excess mortality in younger people over the August to December 2022 period, Statistics Canada referred to its January report titled “Provisional death counts and excess mortality, January 2020 to October 2022.”

The report highlights the increase in poisoning and overdose deaths since the pandemic, with younger people being disproportionately affected.

For example, there were 2,640 accidental poisoning deaths in 2020 and 3,600 in 2021 among individuals under 45—an increase of 36 percent. The report doesn’t have data for 2022.

Statistics Canada data on cause of deaths shows that there was a 17.3 percent decrease in deaths caused by accidents (which includes accidental poisonings) when comparing the August to December 2022 time frame with the same period in 2019.

When contacted by The Epoch Times, the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) said it’s been working collaboratively with Statistics Canada to improve its understanding of excess mortality.

“While COVID-19 has been a main driver of excess deaths overall, we are observing that other factors are also driving excess mortality, particularly among younger Canadians,” said spokeswoman Anna Maddison, pointing to Statistics Canada’s January article which mentions increases in drug overdose and alcohol poisoning deaths.

“These findings align with what has been observed through PHAC-led population health surveillance initiatives,” she said.

On March 23, PHAC released a report titled “Apparent Opioid and Stimulant Toxicity Deaths.” It shows there were 5,360 apparent deaths caused by opioids from January to September 2022 on a national scale, excluding Manitoba which didn’t have available data. Of those deaths, 3,698, or 69 percent, were in the 0–49 age category.

This equates to approximately 13.6 opioid overdose deaths per day over the period for the 0-49 age group. Calculations based on Statistics Canada data in the 0–44 age category from August to December 2022 showed excess deaths to be around 10 per day.

“Canada has seen substantially elevated numbers of opioid-related deaths and other harms since surveillance began in 2016,” says the report, noting that the pandemic “contributed to and exacerbated the crisis.”

“A number of factors have likely contributed to a worsening of the overdose crisis over the course of the pandemic, including the increasingly toxic drug supply, increased feelings of isolation, stress, and anxiety, and limited availability or accessibility of services for people who use drugs,” wrote PHAC in its 2022–2023 departmental plan.

The Epoch Times also analyzed Statistics Canada data on causes of death for the period of August to December 2022, in comparison to the same pre-pandemic period in 2019.

The deaths caused by cancer were relatively similar, with a 1.5 percent increase in 2022. Deaths caused by chronic lower respiratory diseases (such as asthma) increased by 8 percent, whereas those caused by cerebrovascular diseases, such as strokes, dropped by 3.34 percent.

Deaths caused by accidents, which include drug overdoses, saw the largest decrease with 17.3 percent, but no breakdown was provided to show the portion for overdose deaths in the report.

More Recent Data in Quebec

While recent data on excess deaths for 2023 isn’t available for all of Canada from Statistics Canada, Quebec has published data from January to April 2023.

Data from the Institut de la statistique du Québec from earlier this year shows excess deaths at 27 percent in the 0–49 age range, which is consistent with the national figures for late 2022. This is while excess deaths were only 1 percent for all age groups in the province so far this year.

Demographer Frédéric Fleury-Payeur of the Institut de la statistique du Québec noted in an email to The Epoch Times that excess mortality for people between 0 and 49 has rarely dropped below the expected median value in recent times, particularly since mid-2022.

But he advised caution in interpreting the data, pointing to a rising trend in excess mortality for certain age categories within the 0–49 age group dating from before the pandemic. A graph provided by the institute shows a slight stabilization and then an upward trend starting in early 2019, after a steady decrease in excess mortality since 2010.

Deaths in the 0-49 years-old category in Quebec (four weeks average) for the period 2010-2023. The orange line is "observed" (excess mortality) for 2013-2019. The blue line is "observed" for 2010-2023. The green line is "average" for 2016-2019. The yellow line is "trend" for 2013-2019 (modelling by the institute). The dotted line is "trend for 2010-2023.
Institut de la statistique du Québec

“In this context, excess mortality in this group would be half what it [currently is] (but still present) if we measure it in comparison with the average of the 2016–2019 period,” he said.

“To summarize, there is indeed a slight rise in deaths among this group, but it has to be observed in relation to the very particular context of the reference period which serves as the basis for our projection of expected deaths.”

Fleury-Payeur also noted that trends for younger people can be harder to model compared to the elderly given they can change more quickly.

Around the World

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) keeps a dashboard for excess mortality among member nations.

An analysis of data for the period examined in this article, August to December 2022, shows that Canada ranked fourth worst for excess mortality at 21.26 percent. This figure is different from the 13 percent found in Statistics Canada data.

The only countries among the OECD’s 38 members that ranked worse are Germany (23.83 percent), Finland (22.82 percent), and Chile (22.19 percent).

The countries with the lowest excess mortality over the period as calculated by the organization are Sweden (6.93 percent), Hungary (7.03 percent), Luxembourg (8.55), and Latvia (8.7).

Editor’s note: A previous version of this article incorrectly stated the time period for the 27 percent excess deaths in Canada. The correct period is August to December 2022. The Epoch Times regrets the error.