Yellen Admits Inflation Could Rise Again but for Now It’s ‘Nice’ to See Softer Price Data

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks in Dearborn, Mich., on Sept. 8, 2022. Paul Sancya/AP Photo

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Friday that she’s not sure whether the rate of inflation has hit a peak and won’t accelerate again, apparently seeking to temper expectations after a government report showed inflation printing lower than markets predicted, sending stocks soaring.

“I don’t know if this is a turning point,” Yellen told Reuters in an interview in New Delhi, India, on Nov. 11, a day after the Commerce Department released data showing the annualized rate of U.S. inflation at a lower-than-expected 7.7 percent.

Market forecasts prior to the inflation data release put the figure at 8.0 percent, with the publication of the report sparking a sharp rally on Wall Street.

The better-than-expected price data also fueled market chatter about whether inflation has peaked and if subsequent reports would show a string of monthly declines.

But, like a number of market analysts, Yellen made clear it’s not reasonable to put too much stake into a single inflation report.

“I never make more of one data point. That is one data point,” Yellen said.

“It was certainly nice to see an inflation report that came in on the low side of expectations rather than the high side,” she continued, adding that there have been some early signs that inflation might be diminishing, though she did not go into detail.

Still No Meaningful Relief for Households

Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate, told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement that even though the inflation data were better than investors expected, the fight against soaring prices is far from over.

“If this constitutes improvement, we’ve set a very low bar,” McBride said, adding that “the pervasiveness of price increases remains problematic.”

Even though the headline inflation number came in lower than markets expected, categories of basic necessities like food, energy, and shelter saw meaningful increases.

For example, the report showed that grocery store prices rose 12.4 percent year over year while energy prices advanced 17.6 percent in annual terms.

“The areas posting declines are for the most part either irregular or more discretionary in nature—airfare, used cars, and apparel,” McBride said. “Any meaningful relief for household budgets is still somewhere over the horizon.”

No Guarantee Inflation Has Peaked

Yellen’s remarks about the possibility that inflation could rise again also dovetail with those of President Joe Biden and other administration officials.

Biden acknowledged at a Nov. 9 press conference at the White House that there’s no guarantee inflation won’t rise again.

“I can’t guarantee that we’re going to be able to get rid of inflation, but I do think we can, we’ve already brought down the price of gasoline about a dollar a gallon across the board,” Biden said.

At $3.79 per gallon on average countrywide on Nov. 11, gas prices have eased off record highs of over $5 a gallon hit over the summer. Still, they remain $1.40 per gallon higher than when Biden took office.

Following the release of Thursday’s inflation report, Biden said in a statement that it would “take time” for inflation to fall back to normal levels and that “we could see setbacks along the way.”

In a similar vein, National Economic Council Director Brian Deese told CNBC on Thursday that the lower-than-expected inflation data released earlier in the day was welcome, it’s possible that the pace of price increases will accelerate.

“I think that it is welcome that we’re seeing some deceleration, certainly, and absolute price declines in certain goods categories as well,” Deese said.

“And certainly, there can be unexpected setbacks. There can be bumps in the road,” he added, saying it’s too soon to say whether the lower price pressures seen in the inflation report would persist over time.

Asked whether he’s unwilling to say that inflation has peaked, Deese replied by saying he’s willing to acknowledge some “moderation and deceleration” in inflation, which he said were “good indications” of what could come in the future.

But the future is uncertain, he cautioned, with no guarantee prices won’t accelerate again.