Why This Week’s Local Elections Are so Important for Rishi Sunak

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (C) with Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen (L) and Conservative MP Jacob Young (R) during a visit to Redcar, England, on April 2, 2024. PA

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said local elections are “always difficult” for the party in power, while Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch has said she does not think his position is under threat.

Voters in England and Wales go to the polls on Thursday for elections in 107 local authority areas, but much of the focus will be on the 11 mayors—including London’s Sadiq Khan—who are facing the electorate.

There are also votes for 37 police and crime commissioners, the London Assembly, and a parliamentary by-election in Blackpool South caused by the resignation of Tory MP Scott Benton.

Pollsters have forecast the Conservatives could lose up to half of the council seats they are fighting, and there has been speculation Mr. Sunak would face a leadership challenge in the event of such a result.

But Ms. Badenoch told Sky News on Wednesday: “I don’t think the prime minister’s position is under threat. I think there’s a lot of noise being made by people who want to get attention, but the prime minister has the full backing of the Cabinet. He has my full backing.”

Badenoch ‘Expecting a Good Result’

She said she was “expecting a good result” on Thursday.

But opinion polls suggest two of the Tories’ most high-profile regional mayors—Andy Street in the West Midlands and Lord Houchen in Tees Valley—will lose to Labour candidates.

A poll by Censuswide suggested only 19 percent of people in Tees Valley—which includes the so-called red wall towns of Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, and Darlington—said they intended to vote for Lord Houchen, the Conservative incumbent, compared with 45 percent for Labour’s candidate Chris McEwan.

Lord Houchen, who was ennobled in former Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s resignation honours list, has been hailed by government ministers as a model for metro mayors and an example of what a Tory can achieve in devolved authorities.

But a report in January criticised the governance and transparency of Lord Houchen’s Teesworks project—a plan to redevelop the former Redcar steelworks for green industry—while adding there was “no evidence to support allegations of corruption or illegality.”

Labour is also expected to win the newly created metro mayor posts in the East Midlands (Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire) and the northeast (Newcastle, Sunderland, and Northumbria).

In the East Midlands a former Labour MP for Watford, Claire Ward, is running against the current Tory MP for Mansfield, Ben Bradley.

Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves (C) with party activists during Labour's by-election campaign launch in Blackpool, England, on April 5, 2024. PA

The Tories could also lose the new mayoral vacancy in York and North Yorkshire, a region which includes Mr. Sunak’s own Richmond constituency.

Around a third of councils are due to declare their election results in the early hours of Friday morning, including Bolton and Hartlepool, where Labour is hoping to win back overall control.

Eyes on Reform Party’s Showing

There will also eyes on the Reform Party’s performance in places like Southend, Thurrock, and Redditch, where it could cost the ruling Tory party control of those councils.

Former Conservative MP Lee Anderson campaigning for the Reform Party in Ashfield, Nottinghamshire, on March 15, 2024. PA Wire

The Reform Party’s vote could also cost the Tories victory in Blackpool South where Labour’s Chris Webb is up against the Conservatives’ David Jones.

Most of the remaining councils in England will conclude their counts on Friday morning and the results of the East Midlands, northeast, Tees Valley, and York and North Yorkshire metro mayor races should be known by Friday afternoon.

The Green Party will be hoping to make considerable gains at this week’s elections and one of the places where they could conceivably end up as the largest party is Sheffield, which is a three-way battle between Labour, Liberal Democrats, and Greens.

Green Party co-leaders Carla Denyer (L) and Adrian Ramsey (R) during the party's local election campaign launch in Bristol on April 4, 2024. PA Wire

On Friday evening the outcome of council results in so-called blue wall areas like Dorset, Gloucester, and Elmbridge in Surrey could be known and the Liberal Democrats have high hopes of winning overall control.

The outcome of the mayoral election in London could become clear by Saturday afternoon with each of the 14 London Assembly constituencies across the capital due to report their results.

Tory Candidate Promising to Scrap ULEZ Extension

Sadiq Khan is hoping to win a third consecutive term but is up against Susan Hall, the Conservative candidate who has promised to scrap the controversial extension of the Ultra Low Emission Zone to outer London.

If Labour does well in the capital it could even gain the London Assembly seat of West Central, where the Conservative candidate Tony Devenish is defending a majority of just over 2,000 against Labour’s James Small-Edwards, who is the son of former England rugby league player Shaun Edwards and M People singer Heather Small.

Mayor of London Sadiq Khan jokes with local Labour councillors during a visit to St. John's Church in Waterloo, London, on April 15, 2024. PA Wire

On Sunday West Midlands Mayor Mr. Street—who is up against Labour’s Richard Parker, a former accountant with PwC—will find out his fate, and the last results are expected to come in from Salford council and the police and crime commissioner elections in Kent and Sussex.

Mr. Sunak told ITV News earlier this week, “Local elections are always difficult for incumbent governments, but we’ll be campaigning very hard.”

“We’ve got fantastic candidates and ... there’s a very clear contrast in what you get from Conservatives at a local level, keeping your taxes low, keeping crime low, attracting jobs and investment, and the alternative with Labour, taxes going up, local authorities bankrupted, motorists being driven off the road and houses not remotely being built for a next generation,” he added.

PA Media contributed to this report.