What’s Ahead for Trudeau as He Faces Internal and External Pressure

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks during a Laurier Club Holiday Party event in Gatineau, Que., on Dec. 16, 2024. The Canadian Press/Spencer Colby

News Analysis

Pressure is mounting from all sides for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who faces a divided caucus, the NDP joining other opposition parties to vote no confidence, and the incoming president of the world’s superpower promising economy-crushing tariffs while dubbing him the “governor” of a 51st U.S. state.

Where can the prime minister take it from here?

Trudeau has had to make decisions about his political future a number of times in recent months. The Liberals saw repeated setbacks in byelections and a mini-caucus revolt in October, amid declining numbers in the polls. Each time Trudeau chose to stay on, saying he is best placed to lead the Liberal Party in the next election despite very challenging odds, counting on his past campaign successes.

But things escalated quickly in mid-December.

The last days before the House of Commons holiday break were eventful, to say the least. The cascade of events started when Trudeau apparently miscalculated by telling his finance minister Chrystia Freeland on Dec. 13 that she would lose her post on Dec. 16 after she delivers the fall economic statement.

Freeland instead pulled the pin on Dec. 16 just hours before presenting the mini-budget. She made her resignation letter to Trudeau public for maximum damage, accusing him of using unspecified “costly political gimmicks” when the country should be making responsible decisions with the budget and prepare for a trade war.

Cracks had already appeared in caucus prior to that, and they started showing in cabinet afterwards. On Dec. 19, when asked repeatedly by reporters where he stands on the prime minister’s leadership, Justice Minister Arif Virani did not directly say he supports Trudeau.

Additionally, following Freeland’s resignation, more Liberal MPs began to more openly call for Trudeau’s resignation, although the number willing to speak publicly so far is below the 23 who signed an internal letter in October asking him to leave.

By all accounts, there are still a sizeable number of MPs who support Trudeau, and no cabinet member other than Virani has shown signs of not being fully supportive.

What changed the equation significantly for Trudeau and the Liberal caucus is NDP MP Jagmeet Singh’s Dec. 20 statement saying he will put forward a “clear motion of non-confidence” after the House of Commons reconvenes in late January. The New Democrats had been the only major opposition party keeping the Liberals in power, consistently voting with the Liberals on confidence votes.

Singh on Dec. 16 had said Trudeau should resign, and NDP House Leader Peter Julian on the same day signalled that the party could pull its support for the government. With the Bloc Québécois pledging to bring down the government earlier this fall when it didn’t support two of the BQ’s bills, there’s no one left to support the minority Liberals.

The odds of a spring election have now increased, which moves up the timelines for the Liberals who want to go to the polls with a different leader.

If Trudeau cedes to pressure and resigns, an interim leader could be named while the party organizes a leadership race. This exercise, which usually takes many months, would have to be compressed into a shorter time frame to be ready for an election. Another option would be for Trudeau to ask the Governor General to prorogue Parliament to avoid an election during the Liberal leadership contest.

Trudeau could also decide to stay on and prorogue Parliament. Such a move at a time when his all-round popularity is weak would likely result in backlash and not improve his electoral odds. Trudeau used the tool in 2020 at the time of the WE Charity controversy. Stephen Harper had also prorogued Parliament—in 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2013—during his nine years in power from 2006 to 2015.

Meanwhile, the messaging from Trudeau’s supporters is that Canada needs stability as Donald Trump is set to return to the White House on Jan. 20.

“I would ask that at this time, this very critical juncture, that we all push in the same direction,” newly appointed Veterans Affairs Minister Darren Fisher said after the cabinet shuffle at Rideau Hall on Dec. 20.

The work facing the government is also how newly promoted Minister of Democratic Institutions Ruby Sahota explained was the reason for Trudeau not speaking to reporters after the shuffle.

The prime minister hasn’t held a press conference since Freeland’s resignation on Dec. 16. He has also cancelled all of his traditional year-end interviews with media outlets, only talking briefly to reporters as he was walking out of a Dec. 20 cabinet meeting, saying he’s focused on the the issue of U.S. tariffs.

“The prime minister is working hard to make sure that we lead this government and we deal with the pressing issues of today,” Sahota told reporters at Rideau Hall on Dec. 20.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is pushing to have a non-confidence vote immediately and putting pressure on Singh to follow through with his non-confidence motion instead of waiting for the next House sitting in late January.

Poilievre wrote a letter to Governor General Mary Simon on Dec. 20 asking her to recall Parliament before year-end in order to hold a confidence vote, given “all three recognized parties ... have now stated unequivocally that they have lost confidence in the Prime Minister.” He called on the NDP and Bloc Québécois leaders to do the same.