Pressure is mounting from all sides for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who faces a divided caucus, the NDP joining other opposition parties to vote no confidence, and the incoming president of the world’s superpower promising economy-crushing tariffs while dubbing him the “governor” of a 51st U.S. state.
Where can the prime minister take it from here?
Trudeau has had to make decisions about his political future a number of times in recent months, following repeated setbacks in byelections, the ensuing mini-caucus revolt in October, and declining numbers in the polls. Each time he chose to stay on, saying he is best placed to lead the Liberal Party in the next election despite facing very challenging odds, counting on his past campaign successes.
But things escalated quickly this week.
The last days before the House of Commons holiday break were eventful, to say the least. The cascade of events started when Trudeau apparently miscalculated by telling his finance minister Chrystia Freeland on Dec. 13 that she would lose her post after delivering the fall economic statement on Dec. 16.
Freeland instead pulled the pin before presenting the mini-budget. She made her resignation letter to Trudeau public for maximum damage, accusing him of using unspecified “costly political gimmicks” when the country should be making responsible decisions with budget and prepare for a trade war.
Cracks had already appeared in caucus prior to that, and they started showing in cabinet afterwards. On Dec. 19, when asked repeatedly by reporters on Dec. 19 where he stands on the prime minister’s leadership, Justice Minister Arif Virani did not directly say he supports Trudeau.
Additionally, following Freeland’s resignation, more Liberal MPs began to more openly call for Trudeau’s resignation, although the number willing to speak publicly so far is below the 23 who signed an internal letter in October asking him to leave.
By all accounts, there are still a sizeable number of MPs who support Trudeau, and no cabinet member other than Virani has shown signs of not being fully supportive.
Earlier this week, Singh had said Trudeau should resign, and NDP House Leader Peter Julian had signalled that the party could pull its support for the government. With the Bloc Québécois pledging to bring down the government earlier this fall when it didn’t support two of the BQ’s bills, there’s no one left to support the minority Liberals.
The odds of a spring election have now increased, which moves up the timelines for the Liberals who want to go to the polls with a different leader.
If Trudeau cedes to pressure and resigns, an interim leader will be named as the party organizes a leadership race. This exercise, which usually takes many months, would have to be compressed into a shorter time frame to be ready for the election.
Meanwhile, the messaging from Trudeau’s supporters is that Canada needs stability as Donald Trump will return to the White House on Jan. 20.
The work facing the government is also how newly promoted Minister of Democratic Institutions Ruby Sahota explained was the reason for Trudeau not speaking to reporters after the shuffle. The prime minister hasn’t held a press conference since Freeland’s resignation. He has also cancelled all of his traditional year-end interviews with media outlets, only talking briefly to reporters as he was walking out of a Dec. 20 cabinet meeting, saying he’s focused on the the issue of U.S. tariffs.
“The prime minister is working hard to make sure that we lead this government and we deal with the pressing issues of today,” Sahota told reporters at Rideau Hall on Dec. 20.
An option Trudeau has if he chooses to stay on and wants to avoid a spring election would be to ask the Governor General to prorogue Parliament. Such a move at a time when his all-round popularity is not strong would likely result in backlash and not improve his electoral odds.
Trudeau previously used the tool in 2020 at the time of the WE Charity scandal. Stephen Harper also prorogued Parliament twice.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is pushing to have a non-confidence vote immediately and is putting pressure on Singh to follow through with his non-confidence motion instead of waiting for the next House sitting in late January.
