What to Know About the Upcoming Federal Byelection in BC

A voter arrives to cast his ballot in the federal byelection for the riding of Lasalle-Emard-Verdun in Montreal on Sept. 16, 2024. The Canadian PressT/Christinne Muschi

The federal Liberals will face another popularity test as British Columbians head to the polls in a Dec. 16 byelection, providing a measure of how the party is faring among voters with its latest policy moves and international challenges.

The seat was vacated after Liberal MP John Aldag resigned to run for the B.C. NDP in the October election, a contest he lost to the B.C. Conservatives by over 20 percentage points.

Since the byelection was announced in November in the riding of Cloverdale-Langley City, the Liberal government has put forward its two-month GST tax holiday, which is now at the last stage of approval in the Senate. The minority Liberals’ parallel plan to provide $250 cheques to working Canadians wasn’t backed by the NDP, which declined to support it saying it wouldn’t help non-working people like seniors.

Ottawa has also been preoccupied with the U.S. re-election of Donald Trump, who has threatened to impose a 25 percent tariff on Canada if it doesn’t strengthened border security. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing scrutiny on how he can manage the relationship with Trump and avoid what could deliver a serious blow to the Canadian economy if broad new tariffs are introduced with the country’s largest trading partner.

A recent poll by Nanos Research for Bloomberg suggested Trudeau had closed the gap with Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as to who Canadians believe is better placed to negotiate with Trump. In January 2024, 39 percent of respondents said Poilievre was better placed, compared to 28 percent for Trudeau. In December 2024, Poilievre was down to 36 percent whereas Trudeau had climbed to 34 percent.

Whether this data and the tax holiday translate into gains at the ballot box for the Liberals remains to be seen. The party is still trailing in national polls by a large margin, while the Conservatives are leading by 22 points in voting intentions, according to the latest Léger poll.

The situation in British Columbia, which recently re-elected a majority NDP government, is not more favourable. Polling average by CBC gives the Conservatives 43.7 percent in voting intentions against 17.9 percent for the Liberals. The NDP comes in second with 27.8 percent.

If polls provide no certainty, one thing that’s clear is the labour conflict at Canada Post is having an impact on the byelection’s organization.

Elections Canada issued a warning that electors will not be receiving a voter information card due to the postal service disruption. Those cards usually inform electors about where to cast their ballots. Voters can find out their polling station by entering their postal code on the Elections Canada website.

Who Is Running

The riding of Cloverdale-Langley City is not considered a safe Liberal seat, as opposed to the ridings of Toronto-St.Paul’s and Lasalle-Émard-Verdun, both of which the Liberals lost in byelections this year. The riding has switched hands between Liberals and Tories in the last elections.

The Conservative candidate is Tamara Jansen, an agricultural business owner who represented the riding in the House of Commons from 2019 to 2021. She lost to Aldag by 1,654 votes in 2021, or a margin of 3.1 percent.

The four provincial ridings that roughly cover the area of the federal Cloverdale-Langley City riding were all won by B.C. Conservatives in the October provincial election.

Other candidates in the byelection include Madison Fleischer for the Liberal Party and Vanessa Sharma for the NDP. Bios on the respective party websites describe Fleischer as a small business owner and community leader, and Sharma as a union leader and anti-racism activist.

Advance voting concluded on Dec. 9, and election day voting will take place on Dec. 16 from 8:30 a.m. to 8:30 p.m. local time.