With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau saying he will resign after a new Liberal Party leader has been chosen, Canadians could face a period during which the most powerful position in the country is occupied by someone who’s unelected.
There are currently two potential candidates to replace Trudeau who do not hold a seat in the House of Commons, including former central banker Mark Carney and former Liberal MP Frank Baylis.
If one of them were to win the Liberal leadership, he would normally become the prime minister. Prime ministers in Canada are not specifically elected to the position, but rather the prime minister is typically the leader of the party that has won the most seats in the House of Commons. The appointment is made by the governor general.
With the new leader to be chosen March 9, before Parliament resumes on March 24 after Trudeau prorogued the legislature, it means the new leader can be appointed before the government faces a confidence vote and is potentially brought down.
Having an unelected prime minister in place is not without precedent in Canada. In the earliest examples, John Abbott and Mackenzie Bowell were both senators before being appointed as prime minister in the late 19th century.
The latest instance goes back to when Justin Trudeau was a child, and his father Pierre Trudeau decided to resign instead of running in the next election. Pierre, like Justin, was facing the prospect of defeat.
Pierre Trudeau decided to quit in 1984 after taking his famous “walk in the snow” to reflect on his future. Justin Trudeau did his own reflecting during his Christmas holiday ski vacation in British Columbia.
John Turner, who was not an MP at the time, won the Liberal Party leadership race in June 1984. Turner had the option of running in a byelection or a general election to win a House seat. Shortly after becoming prime minister, he asked the governor general to dissolve Parliament and an election was held in September 1984. The Liberals went from 135 to 40 seats in that election, while the Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Mulroney won a majority by increasing their 100 seats to 211.
Current Projections
The current projections by polling aggregator website 338Canada.com have Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives winning 237 seats against 37 for the Liberals. This would be a gain of 127 seats for the Tories and a drop of 116 for the Liberals.The Bloc Québécois has a seat projection of 45, which would make it the Official Opposition, while the NDP has a projected 22 seats.
These are mere projections at this stage, and it remains to be seen whether the new Liberal leadership will improve the party’s fortunes when the next election takes place.
Whether the next prime minister holds a House seat or not, opposition parties have all declared they intend to bring down the government by voting non-confidence at the next opportunity.
When Parliament returns in late March, the next Liberal leader could at that time immediately ask the governor general to dissolve Parliament or attempt to govern by first delivering a Speech from the Throne to outline the government’s agenda. The throne speech and budget issues are considered matters of confidence, hence the opposition will have early opportunities to bring down the government.
Depending on how the Liberal Party fares in the election, the tenure of the next Liberal Party leader could be short lived. But if history continues repeating itself, lessons can be drawn from Turner, who stayed after losing in 1984. The party improved its fortunes under his direction until it came back in 1993, albeit under Jean Chrétien, to deliver a crushing blow to the Tories.
Liberals won a majority with 177 seats, Tories dropped from 156 seats to 2, and the Bloc Québécois became the Official Opposition.
