What Could Trigger an Election Now That NDP Has Broken With Liberals?

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh meets with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Nov. 14, 2019. The Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick

The unpredictability of minority governments will make a return to the House of Commons in a few days, with the NDP having dropped out of its deal with the Liberals.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced on Sept. 4 that he had ripped up the supply-and confidence agreement that had been in place since March 2022. It was originally set to expire in June 2025 ahead of the fixed-date election in October that year.

“The Liberals have let people down. They don’t deserve another chance,” Singh said in a video published on social media. He accused the Liberals of being “beholden to corporate interests,” and said only his party can stop the Conservatives.

Under the agreement, NDP MPs supported the government during confidence votes in the House of Commons in exchange for the Liberals tabling bills and implementing policies favoured by the NDP.

Most of the policy objectives outlined in the agreement have been actioned by the Liberal government, from dental care to anti-scab legislation.

In a statement to media following Singh’s announcement, the NDP said the end of the agreement with the governing Liberals doesn’t “automatically send voters to the polls,” but rather the party will be deciding on a case-by-case basis.

“Singh said the NDP is ready for an election, and voting non-confidence will be on the table with each and every confidence measure,” the statement said.

Polling may also not be in the favour of the NDP currently. A survey by Leger conducted between Aug. 23 and 25 suggested that support for the New Democrats has dropped 5 percentage points, to 15 percent, compared to July.  The survey showed support for the Conservatives at 43 percent and the Liberals at 25 percent.

The Conservatives have maintained a solid lead in the polls for an extended period, and Pierre Poilievre has been calling for a “carbon tax election.” Last week, the Tory leader issued a letter to Singh asking him to end his agreement with the Liberals.

Votes of Confidence

Having lost formal NDP support, the Liberals could remain in power with the support of any major party in the House around confidence votes.

Confidence votes determine if the government has the support of the House.

To pass confidence votes, the Liberals, which currently hold 154 seats out of the 338 seats of the House, would need the support of at least one of the other major opposition parties to ensure they have over half of the votes. With the Conservatives, who hold 119 seats, ruled out since they have indicated they want an early election, that means the Liberals would need the support of the Bloc Québécois, who hold 32 seats, or the NDP, who hold 24 seats, on key votes. And that could be possible if the Liberals entertain key demands from these parties in exchange for their support on key votes.

The next budget, for which the government will table a confidence motion to be voted on, will be presented in early spring. The government will also be issuing a fall economic update.

In the last three votes on budget motions, in April 2022, April 2023, and May 2024, the NDP backed the government whereas the Conservatives and the Bloc opposed it.

Aside from motions of confidence related to the budget or the speech from the throne, which takes place shortly after a new government takes power, the government can designate certain votes as being questions of confidence, or opposition MPs can table motions of non-confidence in the government.

Poilievre tabled such a motion in March, asking the House to declare non-confidence in the prime minister and his government over the planned carbon tax hike on April 1. It was opposed by every other major party.

On the government side, Trudeau had implied a House vote on the invocation of the Emergencies Act in February 2022 could be interpreted as a confidence vote, even though the motion’s language was not explicit on that point.

The NDP had sided with the Liberals while the Conservatives and the Bloc had opposed. At that time, the supply-and-confidence agreement was not yet in place. The deal was struck in March 2022 and was set to last until the end of the parliamentary session in June 2025.

Government House Leader Karina Gould said on the margins of the cabinet retreat in Halifax on Aug. 27 that she was “fairly confident” the deal would hold. “It’s a strong agreement, and we'll get to the end of June,” she said.

Reacting to Singh’s announcement, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said during a press conference in Newfoundland and Labrador on Sept. 4 that he hopes the NDP will remain “focused on how we can deliver for Canadians, as we have over the past years, rather than focusing on politics.”

Reporters asked Trudeau whether he would consider calling an election before potentially being submitted to a non-confidence vote.

“I'll let the other parties focus on politics,” he said. “An election will come in the coming year, hopefully not till next fall, because in the meantime, we’re going to deliver for Canadians.”

Poilievre, when asked on Sept. 4 how quickly he will test the NDP’s support for the minority Liberal government, said he didn’t have a specific date or plan for doing so.

“We don’t have a calendar to indicate when we can put forward a motion,” he said, adding: “Singh did this stunt today. He is going to have to vote on whether he keeps Justin Trudeau’s costly government in power, or whether he triggers a carbon tax election.”

A handful of governments have been toppled by House votes in Canadian history, the latest one being led by Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper in 2011. Harper went on to win a majority in the subsequent election in May that year.

Before that, Paul Martin’s Liberals were toppled in the 2006 federal election by an opposition motion tabled the previous year over the sponsorship scandal.

Pierre Trudeau also lost the confidence of the House over his budget in 1974, but subsequently won a majority.

The Canadian Press contributed to this report.