What Comes Next After Trudeau Prorogues Parliament, Announces Incoming Resignation

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks with reporters before caucus, in Ottawa, on Nov. 29, 2023. The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld

Justin Trudeau has announced he intends to resign as prime minister and Liberal Party leader once the party has chosen a replacement.

In the meantime, all parliamentary business is on hold after Trudeau met with Governor General Mary Simon on the morning of Jan. 6 to ask her to prorogue Parliament. She granted the request, bringing an end to the current parliamentary session and suspending House of Commons proceedings until March 24.

The development means opposition parties will be unable to vote non-confidence in the government as they had pledged, delaying an election for the time being.

The Liberal Party will need to organize a relatively short leadership contest in the coming weeks.

Trudeau’s announcement came after regional caucuses comprising a majority of Liberal MPs asked him to step down, amid a year of poor polling numbers and byelection losses. The calls for Trudeau to resign intensified after former Deputy Premier and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned from cabinet on Dec. 16.

Speaking from Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Jan. 6, Trudeau said the the Liberal Party needs to go through a “robust, nationwide, competitive process” to pick a new leader.

“This country deserves a real choice in the next election, and it has become clear to me that if I am having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election,” he said.

According to the Liberal Party of Canada’s constitution, when the leader announces his resignation or triggers a leadership event, the national president must call a meeting of the board of directors within 27 days. Liberal MPs are meeting this week to discuss the latest development. A special six-hour caucus meeting will be held on Jan. 8.

Trudeau’s prorogation announcement ends the chance for a non-confidence vote to be passed early in the year, which would have normally led to the dissolution of Parliament and brought about an early election. A successful non-confidence vote would require the Conservatives, NDP, and Bloc Québécois to vote in favour.

The Conservatives and Bloc Québécois have previously voted in favour of non-confidence motions, while NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said his party would table its own non-confidence motion to bring down the government in 2025. Singh said on Dec. 20 that his party would vote non-confidence no matter who the Liberal leader is. After Trudeau’s resignation announcement on Jan. 6, Singh said his party would still vote non-confidence in the Liberal government when Parliament resumes.

The Conservatives had also planned to reconvene the House of Commons public accounts committee early in the new year to prepare a non-confidence motion, to be voted on as early as Jan. 30. This tactic is no longer possible with Parliament being prorogued.

Trudeau previously prorogued Parliament in August 2020 for a month to allow the government to lay out its long-term plan to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. The announcement also came amid the WE Charity controversy and less than a day after Bill Morneau announced he was resigning as finance minister after he faced allegations of improper conduct by the federal ethics watchdog.

Former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper also prorogued Parliament four times—in 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2013—during his nine years in power. Harper was particularly criticized by the other parties for proroguing Parliament in December 2008 to avoid a non-confidence vote, and his government ultimately avoided such a vote as the coalition to bring down the government had fallen apart by the time Parliament reconvened.

As for the Liberal leadership race, candidates whose names have been mentioned as possible contenders include: Freeland, Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, and Transport Minister Anita Anand.

Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, who is currently board chair of Brookfield Asset Management, was asked about running for political office during an October 2024 podcast, and responded “The opportunity may present itself.” Former B.C. Premier Christy Clark also said back in October that she had not ruled out returning to politics and wanted to be “part of the conversation on the future direction of the Liberal Party and of the country.”