Global intelligence analysts, political risk consultants, and members of security establishments are warning about the “probability” of Russia interfering in South Africa’s election next year.
“The goal of the interference would be to ensure that a pro-Russian government is elected in one of the world’s most resource-rich nations, and that means the Kremlin-funded Internet Research Agency (IRA) could be used to influence voting in South Africa,” said Brendan von Essen, a Johannesburg-based international relations expert and political and security risk analyst.
While the date for elections is yet to be confirmed, several government sources told The Epoch Times it would be in April 2024.
“South Africa’s very important to Moscow,“ Von Essen told The Epoch Times. ”It’s the second-largest economy in Africa, with its gold and platinum mines and lucrative financial sector.
“South Africa influences the foreign policies of a lot of other African countries because it has a strong voice in the African Union and beyond.”
South Africa is a member of the BRICS bloc of some of the world’s top developing economies; the organization also includes Brazil, Russia, India, and China.
It’s the only African member of the G-20, which includes powers such as the United States, the UK, and Russia.
South Africa also is lobbying intensively for a place on the U.N. Security Council.
However, the African National Congress (ANC) government led by President Cyril Ramaphosa is enduring international condemnation for what is seen as its pro-Russian stance in Moscow’s war in Ukraine, even as it maintains that it’s “non-aligned” and “neutral.”
“Make no mistake, Moscow is heavily invested in making sure that South Africa stays firmly in the Russian camp,” said Von Essen, who gives advice to multinationals, foreign governments, and others about political and security risks in South Africa.
“The ANC government has always been totally uncritical of Russia at the U.N., G-20, [African Union], and BRICS. While most of the world is condemning Russia for its brutal assault on Ukraine, the ANC is hosting its navy for training exercises and sending its top army general to Moscow to discuss ‘military cooperation.’
“This kind of propagandistic support at a time like this, from Africa’s most technologically advanced economy, is invaluable to Moscow, and given Russia’s behavior in other countries it’s fair to say it will do everything it can to hold on to such support.”
During a meeting of BRICS foreign ministers in Cape Town this month, Russia’s Sergey Lavrov branded South Africa one of Moscow’s “greatest friends and allies in the world.”
Naledi Pandor, South Africa’s minister of international affairs, responded in kind, using the phrase “our Russian friends” several times.
The former Soviet Union, which at the time included Ukraine, supported the ANC’s insurrection against the apartheid government from the 1960s to the early 1990s, with weapons and money. Many of the party’s top officials attended college and received military training in the USSR.
Since Putin’s invasion in February 2022, the ANC has moved ever closer to Russia.
It has refused to condemn the war on Ukraine; held joint military exercises with Russia; allowed sanctioned Russian ships and aircraft into South African territory and dispatched its army chief to discuss “military cooperation and conflict readiness” with his counterpart in the Kremlin.
In recent months, ANC ministers have made several unexplained visits to Moscow and also have been keynote speakers at Russian “security conferences.”
Ramaphosa is leading a group of six African leaders set to begin brokering peace in Ukraine in mid-June, with analysts convinced that the effort will fail because of South Africa’s pro-Russian stance.
Ahead of next year’s polls, the ANC finds itself in crisis.
Decades of corruption, mismanagement, and incompetence have resulted in a breakdown of services in many cities and towns.
“Going into 2024, it’s clear the ANC’s more desperate than it’s ever been,” said Sanusha Naidu, a political analyst at the South African Poverty Network.
“The party’s previous strongholds are turning against it. It’s putting on a brave face, but behind closed doors, it’s terrified of losing power.
“If it wasn’t scared, it wouldn’t be talking with other parties in case it has to form a coalition government to hold on to government,” she told The Epoch Times. “Desperate people do desperate things.”
Other recent polls have the ANC as low as 41 percent, with only a few projecting that it will win the 50-plus-one needed for it to form a majority government.
The party captured 57.5 percent of the vote in the last elections in 2019. However, Naidu and other analysts said 2021 local government elections offered a more credible reflection of where it presently stood in terms of support.
In 2021, the ANC slipped below 50 percent of the national vote for the first time, losing control of several major cities and towns to its main opposition in parliament, the Democratic Alliance (DA), and coalitions of smaller parties.
“Even the slightest indication that the ANC’s grip on power will end in 2024 will worry the Russians,“ Von Essen said. ”They know that an ANC loss will probably result in South Africa adopting stances that are far more pro-Western.
“The Russians are already trying to strengthen the ANC, with money the most obvious example.”
In September 2021, after the Political Party Funding Act was approved, the ANC was forced to disclose its donors. It then became clear that a company called United Manganese of Kalahari (UMK) was funding it with millions of dollars.
UMK was established in 2011 as a joint venture between Russian oligarch and Putin ally Viktor Vekselberg and South African black economic empowerment investors.
These included the ANC’s investment vehicle Chancellor House.
ANC funding reports show that UMK continues to give generously to the ANC.
“Russia is already propping up the ANC with cash,” DA leader John Steenhuisen told The Epoch Times. “This is just the tip of the iceberg. Who knows what else the Russians are prepared to do, to make sure their buddies stay in government?”
The 2022 documents said Vekselberg was accused of using Russian soldiers to “gain control of a Siberian oilfield” in 2001. In 2004, he allegedly stole “client funds,” which he used to purchase Faberge eggs.
In 2022, the U.S. Treasury imposed new sanctions on Vekselberg, noting that he was maintaining “close ties” with Putin and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
It said Vekselberg had participated in “Russian diplomatic and soft power activities on behalf of the Kremlin, accompanying officials on cultural missions abroad,” including to South Africa.
Steven Gruzd, who heads the African Governance and Diplomacy Program at the South African Institute of International Affairs, told The Epoch Times: “We know Moscow’s modus operandi: Its agents and agents provocateurs are typically deployed to countries with plenty of natural resources, where dictators or governments or ruling parties are in danger of losing power.
“The Russians, using whatever means necessary, even mercenaries, then turn losers into winners, and benefit by way of massive mining concessions, stakes in oil and diamond fields; energy projects, you name it.”
Von Essen also is convinced the Internet Research Agency (IRA) already has a “presence” in South Africa.
“I am strongly inclined to believe, based on what several sources have told me, that the IRA is being prepared to stoke pro-ANC and anti-opposition feelings,” he said.
Several intelligence agents told The Epoch Times that “Russian businessmen” frequently met with ANC officials.
“They call themselves businessmen,“ one said. ”Everyone calls everyone else a businessman; we don’t actually know what kind of business they’re involved in.”
Von Essen said the risk of hackers targeting South African political parties in the run-up to the 2024 polls—similar to what occurred in the United States in 2016—was “very high.”
”Our internet space is very insecure and unrestricted,” he explained.
The U.S. government has sanctioned Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the chief of Wagner PMC, Russia’s Kremlin-backed mercenary force, for financing the IRA.
On Feb. 16, 2018, the FBI issued a warrant of arrest for Prigozhin for “defrauding the United States” by allegedly interfering in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, which sent Donald Trump to the White House.
It reads: “Prigozhin was the primary funder of the St. Petersburg-based Internet Research Agency.
“He allegedly oversaw and approved their political and electoral interference operations in the United States which included the purchase of American computer server space, the creation of hundreds of fictitious online personas, and the use of stolen identities of persons from the United States.
“These actions were allegedly taken to reach significant numbers of Americans for the purposes of interfering with the United States political system, including the 2016 presidential election.”
“The stakes are so high in our national elections next year that I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume that some malign forces will, in some way or the other, use illegal methods to influence the vote,” said Emma Powell, the opposition Democratic Alliance’s representative on international relations.
“I don’t think the ANC plans to blatantly steal elections, and rig the vote, like we see in a lot of other African countries.
“It will be more subtle than that, and part of that could well involve attacking opponents online, to disrupt their campaigning and to use disinformation to undermine their messaging.
“The ANC succeeded for many years in keeping its Russian funding secret. What else are they hiding?”
ANC spokesperson, Pule Mabe, told The Epoch Times the party had “no need of any illegal foreign intervention whatsoever” to gain “outright victory” in the 2024 polls.
He denied that the IRA was present in South Africa.
“Firstly, we [the ANC] would never dream of using the internet to hack opponents or to harm them in cyberspace or on social media.
“They will be allowed to campaign freely. Secondly, we have our own IT specialists; why should we call in Russians or anyone else to do jobs we ourselves are capable of doing?”
