Voters’ Differences Over Net Zero Come Down to ‘Traditional’ Political Division: Expert

Polling expert Sir John Curtice speaks to NTD's "British Thought Leaders" programme. NTD

Despite widespread support for reaching the target of net zero, self-identified Conservative and Labour voters disagree on how to achieve it and especially about taxation and bans, said one of Britain’s most respected polling analysts, Sir John Curtice.

Speaking to NTD’s “British Thought Leaders” programme, Sir John said polling data suggested 75 percent of people in the UK are concerned about climate change and there is “widespread support for the target of achieving net zero.”

But Sir John, a professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said, “Once you get down to should you tax people in order to ... dissuade them from flying, or should we start banning things or implementing limitations, then it becomes more debatable.”

He said: “If you take, for example ... the proposal to ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2030. Only around 18 percent of Conservative voters were backing that idea in a poll that was done just at the beginning of August by YouGov, whereas among Labour supporters, the figure was in the high 40s.”

Sir John said: “We shouldn’t be surprised, because, in a sense, although everybody wants climate change addressed, there is still a debate about how best to do it. And that debate matches on the traditional division.”

“Labour Party voters tend to be more sympathetic to the government intervening towards perhaps taxing people a bit more, Conservative voters are less inclined in that direction, and perhaps more than more willing to rely on voluntary action,” he added.

Sir John said Prime Minister Rishi Sunak probably hoped his recent U-turn on green policies might improve his party’s popularity, but he said the most important question was what would living costs be like when it came to October 2024, if that is when the general election is held.

He said: “Apart from those people who are inclined to put in a heat pump very quickly, it’s not clear that it’s going to make a difference ... Whether or not in the end this is going to persuade voters that ... the government has helped to address the cost of living crisis, I think ... the prime minister’s on somewhat softer ground.”

UK Faces a ‘Lot of Very Substantial Problems’

Sir John said whatever the incoming government is after the next election, it faces a “lot of very substantial problems.”

He said: “We have maxed out our credit card, as was demonstrated in the reaction to [former Prime Minister] Liz Truss’s budget, and we’re government debt at around 100 percent of GDP. We’ve got pretty high levels of taxation by our historical standards and we also have very high levels of public spending.”

But he said despite high public spending the public satisfaction with the NHS was at a record low level and he said the recent decision to close hundreds of school buildings because of problems with reinforced autoclaved aerated concrete was in danger of “becoming a symbol of our crumbling Britain.”

He said illegal immigration would doubtless be an issue at the next election and he said: “There is no doubt that Conservative voters are more concerned about this issue. There is no doubt that Conservative voters tend to back the government’s Rwanda policy; Labour voters tend not to.”

Britain's Foreign Secretary Liz Truss (L) and former Chancellor Rishi Sunak arrive to take part in the BBC's "The UK's Next Prime Minister: The Debate" in Victoria Hall in Stoke-on-Trent, central England, on July 25, 2022. Jacob King / POOL / AFP

But he said the crucial point is whether those who voted Conservative in 2019 because they thought they could reduce immigration are less likely to vote for them now, and he said there is little evidence of that.

Are Tories ‘Tilting at Windmills’?

Sir John said: “The honest truth is the Conservative politicians think this appeals to our base, but they are at risk at tilting at windmills on an issue where in the end, there is of course widespread doubt about whether actually this can actually be stopped.”

He said the Tories are battling to overcome two big legacies from previous prime ministers: the lack of trust stemming from Partygate, and the economic fallout from former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s 2022 budget.

Sir John said “Sunak Mark I” had managed to provide stability after Ms. Truss’s disastrous premiership and now the prime minister was ready to move on to “Sunak Mark II,” who “begins to try to make an wider impression on the electorate.”

“But whether he succeeds or not. We have of course yet to wait and see,” he added.

After Labour won the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election on Thursday, Sir John said if the result is replicated across Scotland, Labour would once again be the dominant party north of the border.

Sir John told the PA News Agency that it would make it easier for Labour “to get an overall majority” at the general election.