Violent Crime Surges in Canada’s Major Cities: Report

OPP officers stand near the scene of a shooting where one Ontario Provincial Police officer was killed and two others were injured in the town of Bourget, Ont. on May 11, 2023. The Canadian Press/Patrick Doyle

Violent crime is surging in some of Canada’s major cities, with sexual assault rates showing the largest increase over the short and long term, according to a new report.

Sexual assault cases climbed in eight of nine major cities over the past seven years, with Ottawa being the exception to the trend, according to a study by the Macdonald Laurier Institute (MLI). The incidence of sexual assault has risen since 2016 in Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Toronto, Montreal, Peel, Ont., and York, Ont., with the last nearly doubling from 2016 to 2023.

“In recent years there has been a surge in violent crime across Canada as a whole,” says the report authored by Dave Snow and Rickard Audas, senior fellows at MLI. “We found that violent crime was increasing in many cities in the short-term, most notably for sexual assaults and robberies.”

Winnipeg and Edmonton recorded the highest number of sexual assault cases during the seven-year period. In 2023, Edmonton had a sexual assault rate of 108.64 cases per 100,000 people, while Winnipeg saw a rate of 107.76. Toronto followed at 97.8 cases.

The rate in Peel, on the other hand, was 52.15 cases last year, the lowest among all major cities.

The study’s goal was to analyze crime trends at a local level. To do so, the authors looked at 10 years of police-reported violent crime records from nine major cities, which they say account for one-third of the Canadian population.

They considered four crime categories: homicide, aggravated assault, sexual assault, and robbery. They did not include Vancouver data on sexual assault because of differences in how it reports the crime, they noted.

Winnipeg: Highest Robbery Rates

The robbery rate in Manitoba’s capital last year was nearly triple that of every other major city, at 305.82 cases per 100,000 population, according to the report. The rate has increased by more than 50 percent since 2016, decreasing slightly from 2019 to 2021, and reaching a peak in 2023.

The authors noted the rate decline coincides with the years of pandemic lockdowns.

The second highest robbery rate last year was in Edmonton, which had less than half that of Winnipeg, at 106.01 cases per 100,000 population. Alberta’s capital city had the second highest rate for the entire period, while Montreal and Toronto have followed closely in recent years.

By contrast, York reported the lowest robbery rates since 2016 among all major cities, with 31.66 cases last year. Ottawa and Peel also reported lower rates than other cities.

Edmonton: Highest Rates of Aggravated Assault

Edmonton’s aggravated assault rate in 2023 was more than four times that of any other major Canadian city except Winnipeg, said the report, at 38.72 incidents per 100,000 population compared to Winnipeg’s 22.81.

Aggravated assault refers to injuring, maiming, disfiguring, or endangering someone’s life, according to the Criminal Code of Canada.

The aggravated assault rate from 2016 to 2023 was highest in Edmonton, where it’s been rising steadily over the last decade, according to the study. Winnipeg had the second highest rates in the study period.

The authors said that despite being Canada’s largest city, Toronto has experienced “a considerable decline” in its aggravated assault rate over the last decade, with 8.29 cases in 2023.

York had the lowest rates since 2016, followed by Peel and Montreal.