Vietnam’s leader and general secretary of the ruling communist party, Nguyen Phu Trong, died on July 19 at age 80. His successor, To Lam has taken over his position.
The Central Committee of Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party issued an obituary on July 19 saying that Nguyen, the general secretary of the party, died “due to old age and serious illness.” Vietnamese officials did not mention details about Nguyen’s illness.
Since 2011, Nguyen had served as general secretary of the Communist Party of the one-party-ruled authoritarian state, which made him the top leader of the country. He also served as the leader of Vietnam from 2018 to 2020.
During Nguyen’s more-than decade in power, Vietnam pursued “bamboo diplomacy,” balancing between the United States and China. He advocated the approach of “more friends, fewer foes” in diplomacy.
In September 2023, President Joe Biden’s visit to Hanoi, Vietnam, elevated Vietnam’s relationship with the United States to the highest diplomatic status, alongside China, Russia, India, and South Korea.
In December 2023, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping visited Vietnam—amid disputes over the CCP’s unrecognized claims over maritime territories in South China Sea—to promote closer relations between Hanoi and Beijing. Vietnam elevated Japan to its highest diplomatic status in 2023. Vietnam also hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin in June.
Vietnam has implemented economic reforms since 1986. However, international human rights groups believe that Nguyen presided over a further crackdown on dissidents, jailing activists, journalists, and social media commentators.
Opportunity for Transformation
Feng Chongyi, associate professor of China studies at the University of Technology–Sydney, told The Epoch Times on July 20 that there has always been a dispute between the northern and southern factions in Vietnam’s political arena.“People who grew up in south Vietnam, like the former prime minister, are more liberal,” Feng said. “Nguyen belonged to the northern Vietnam faction, who are more stubborn and conservative communists. They are now at least having an opportunity to further reform and open up, which is provided by the sudden death of Nguyen.”
Although Nguyen adopted reforms to some aspects of Vietnam’s political system, Feng said, such reforms could only go so far.
“After all, it is still the party-state of the Communist Party and a communist regime,” he said.
Vietnam now has a good opportunity for change, Feng said, “that is, the United States, Europe, and Japan are all de-risking and decoupling from China economically.”
Successor To Lam
To Lam became the leader of Vietnam in May. Previously, he served as Vietnam’s public security chief.Feng said that because To has been in charge for only a short time, his true political stance is unclear, and his background as minister of public security doesn’t necessarily mean that he will be more authoritarian.
“If he has a certain level of political wisdom, he should move in a more open and liberal direction,” Feng said. “That would be a positive thing for him to consolidate his power and to promote Vietnam’s economic development and social opening.”
Sun Kuo-hsiang, professor of international affairs and business at Nanhua University in Taiwan, is cautious about which direction To will steer Vietnam.
“In communist Vietnam’s constitution, the Communist Party of Vietnam is the only legal political party to rule,” he said.
Nguyen’s passing may represent the end of an era and the beginning of a new one, Sun said.
“But at the beginning of this new era, it still has to face the fact that the Vietnamese Communist Party, which is like the CCP, is in control of the military, police, and public security,” he said.
Impact on China–Vietnam Relations
The CCP sent condolences for the death of Vietnam’s communist leader on the day that he died.Besides China, there are only four remaining communist regimes in the world: Cuba, Laos, Vietnam, and North Korea.
Feng said that losing a veteran communist leader is a negative thing for the Chinese communist regime.
“Among the few communist regimes left, Vietnam is very important because its population and economic size are only next to China. North Korea, Laos, and Cuba are too small,” he said.
However, for China as a whole, it’s positive news, according to Feng.
“If a communist regime is lost or weakened, it is good news for ordinary Chinese people,” he said.
Nguyen’s death is indeed a new blow for the Chinese regime and China–Vietnam relations, Sun said.
“The CCP immediately sent Vietnam its condolences on the death of Nguyen, which is actually its attempt to cultivate and build connection with the successor. We will also see how the West would communicate with To Lam,” he said.
Sun said that because of Nguyen’s sudden death, “there must be an internal power reshuffle” and that during that process, “external forces may have the opportunity to exert influence.”
“In other words, it’s very important which outside forces can help To Lam to stabilize his power, and whether the United States and Japan or China can influence To Lam more,” he said.
“Of course, the most critical thing is whether Vietnam’s internal power transfer is stable, and how to reassess Vietnam’s positioning in the Indo-Pacific region after the transfer of power, and the relationship between Vietnam and China, as well as Vietnam’s relationship with the Western world.
“After the overall power balance is reached, we can see that there may be some adjustments in the relationship between China and Vietnam, but significant changes may not happen in the short term.”
