US, Norwegian Officials Concerned Russia Could Deploy Nuclear Weapons in Response to Ukrainian Counteroffensive

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses the U.S. Congress at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, on Dec. 21, 2022. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

A U.S. State Department official and two Norwegian defense-focused politicians are concerned that Russian President Vladimir Putin might deploy a nuclear weapon in response to Ukraine’s planned spring counteroffensive, set to begin in weeks.

The Ukrainian military plans to go on the offensive as soon as Western tanks and long-range rockets arrive, which could be as soon as April, according to Kyiv’s minister of internal affairs Anton Gerashchenko. Its primary regional target will be Russian-occupied Crimea, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed to take back on Feb. 26.

Speaking at the Norwegian Embassy, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Douglas Jones and Norwegian Parliament member Åsmund Aukrust told The Epoch Times there is a real possibility of nuclear escalation in Ukraine and that both NATO members are concerned.

The officials spoke at the Atlantic Council’s “Looking North: Conference on security in the Arctic” event on Thursday, along with Norway’s Chair of the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defense Ine Eriksen Søreide, who echoed the uneasiness of her peers.

The Sum of All Fears

Jones said he was worried. “The comments [Russia] has made about nuclear escalation have been really irresponsible,” he said.

Jones threatened “serious consequences” for Russia if it were to cross the atomic line, though he would not specify what these repercussions would look like. He said non-NATO countries like China and India have made statements in alignment with the United States on this issue.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed on Feb. 23 that the United States worked behind the scenes to encourage foreign powers to preemptively urge Putin against the use of nuclear weapons. While successful, this effort occurred in spring of last year, and China–Russia relations have strengthened since.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks during a news conference on the sidelines of the G-20 foreign ministers' meeting in New Delhi, India, on March 2, 2023. Reuters/Amit Dave

“A nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought,” Jones concluded.

Jones’s Norwegian counterpart Aukrust, the vice chair of the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defense, acknowledged the severity of the nuclear threat.

“It still might happen, and even just to say that shows how extremely dangerous this is,” he said. “It’s important that we don’t underestimate Russia.”

Putin recently pulled out of the New START Treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms treaty between Russia and the United States.

Drawing attention to the Arctic region, Søreide pointed out that much of Russia’s fissile weaponry is housed in the North.

“The high North is most of the home bases and the operational areas for their nuclear capabilities,” she said, implying that these facilities may be engaged if Russian infantry continues to suffer losses. “[This] is a huge strategic challenge to NATO that I’m not sure we’ve fully taken into account what that will mean because we are now staring at how much they are losing on the ground in Ukraine.”

A recent Norwegian intelligence report alleged that ships within Russia’s “North Fleet”—a bastion of the country’s naval forces—carry nuclear warheads. Moscow’s only aircraft carrier and the flagship of the North Fleet departed from its dock on Feb. 22, the first time the vessel has been deployed since 2016.

Risks of Targeting Crimea

Putin stated in September that he will respond with a nuclear strike “if there is a threat to Russia’s territorial integrity.” He considers Crimea—the southern peninsula currently in the sights of the Ukrainian military—to be Russian territory.

Russian forces annexed Crimea in early 2014 in retaliation to the U.S.-backed ousting of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who was removed after snubbing the European Union for a multi-billion-dollar trade deal with Russia.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin (R) and his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yanukovych exchange documents at a signing ceremony after a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, on Dec. 17, 2013. Sergei Karpukhin/File Photo/Reuters

Most of the peninsula’s current residents consider themselves Russian and support Moscow’s leadership.

A 2015 poll conducted by the German data intelligence firm GfK found that 93 percent of the respondents “endorsed Russia’s annexation.”

On Tuesday, MSNBC—with correspondent Keir Simmons on the ground—reported Crimeans “view themselves as Russian” and see de-occupation as “unrealistic.” Simmons warned that a Ukrainian siege of the peninsula would mean NATO weapons could soon be used against Russian civilians, a severe escalation to the one-year conflict.

Simmons added that Putin would do “pretty much anything” to avoid losing the Crimean port of Sevastopol, which provides crucial access to the Black Sea and is Russia’s only warm water port—meaning it does not freeze over in the winter.

According to Politico, Blinken said in February that Crimea is Putin’s “red line” but refused to make a determination, saying the decision to retake the peninsula lies with Kyiv.

Venture capitalist and outspoken critic of the Ukraine war David Sacks responded to the MSNBC segment, saying it exposes the Biden administration’s total lack of foreign policy vision.

“This is a huge admission because it means that Biden’s policy of ‘only the Ukrainians can decide’ the objectives of the war makes no sense,” he wrote on Twitter on Wednesday. “We’re effectively delegating our foreign policy to Zelensky, who is pursuing objectives that we don’t agree with.”