Hamas could continue to trouble Israel for years to come, according to a new global threat assessment prepared by the U.S. intelligence community.
“Israel probably will face lingering armed resistance from HAMAS for years to come, and the military will struggle to neutralize HAMAS’s underground infrastructure, which allows insurgents to hide, regain strength, and surprise Israeli forces,” the U.S. intelligence community report states.
This ODNI assessment was prepared on Feb. 5, and an unclassified version was published on March 11.
Humanitarian and Diplomatic Considerations
The report also states that the continuation of the current Gaza conflict could galvanize international pressure against the Netanyahu administration, particularly as international observers focus on the impact that the war is having on the civilian population in the Gaza Strip.“Media coverage of the destruction and loss of life are being amplified by active social media campaigns on all sides, roiling public reactions among neighboring countries and around the world. Israel will face mounting international pressure because of the dire humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip,” the report states.
Exact casualty assessments are difficult to independently verify at this time. The Gaza Health Ministry, a ministry operating under the auspices of Hamas’s political control of the Gaza Strip, estimates that more than 31,000 people have been killed in the embattled Palestinian territory since Oct. 7, 2023. The Gaza Health Ministry doesn’t differentiate between combatants and noncombatants when assessing these casualty figures. The Gaza Health Ministry estimates that more than 72,000 others have been injured in the fighting.
The United Nations estimates that as many as 1.9 million more Gaza residents are internally displaced within the territory amid the ongoing fighting.
The ODNI report indicates that Israel’s efforts to completely eliminate Hamas before ending the war could pose a further challenge for neighboring Arab countries, which will have to balance diplomacy with Israel against the increasingly negative attitudes that their populations have toward the Jewish state as the war continues.
“The Gaza conflict is posing a challenge to many key Arab partners, who face public sentiment against Israel and the United States for the death and destruction in Gaza, but also see the United States as the power broker best positioned to deter further aggression and end the conflict before it spreads deeper into the region,” the ODNI report states.
A recent incident during a Feb. 29 humanitarian aid delivery in northern Gaza prompted backlash from Israel’s neighbors. About 100 people were killed, and several hundred more were reported injured as crowds thronged the aid delivery route. Israeli military officials reported that most of the casualties resulted from trampling injuries among the crowd, but other reports have suggested that dozens were struck by gunfire, potentially from Israeli forces operating near the delivery route. The foreign ministries of Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia blamed Israel for the deaths in the immediate aftermath.
Netanyahu ‘May Be in Jeopardy’
How Israeli and Palestinian negotiators address issues such as humanitarian aid and post-war reconstruction “will be key components of the long-term Israeli–Palestinian relationship,” the ODNI report states. The report notes the Netanyahu administration’s opposition to dealing with the Palestinian Authority after the war and the pursuit of a “territorial compromise.”It warns that Mr. Netanyahu’s control over the Israeli government could be another deciding factor in the ongoing conflict. While the U.S. intelligence report suggests that Hamas maintains “broad popular support” among Palestinians and could persist for years, it also notes that Mr. Netanyahu’s political influence may be waning.
“Netanyahu’s viability as leader as well as his governing coalition of far-right and ultraorthodox parties that pursued hardline policies on Palestinian and security issues may be in jeopardy. Distrust of Netanyahu’s ability to rule has deepened and broadened across the public from its already high levels before the war, and we expect large protests demanding his resignation and new elections,” the ODNI report states. “A different, more moderate government is a possibility.”
Mr. Netanyahu served as prime minister of Israel across five government coalitions from 2009 to 2021. His fifth coalition lasted just more than a year, from May 2020 to June 2021, after which he lost the prime ministership. Mr. Netanyahu returned to the office in December 2022.
