With the Senate inquiry into the federal government’s controversial legislation to cap international student numbers in Australia scheduled for this week, Australian universities say these caps will result in significant revenue and job losses, with adverse effects on the broader economy.
A new report by the Australian National University’s (ANU) Migration Hub argues that with nine migration changes already implemented and a tenth to follow, the government has done enough to achieve population moderation.
“Even without policy change, 2025 should be a more ‘normal’ year in international education. Post-COVID pent-up demand should have largely cleared between 2022 and 2024,” it said.
“By 2025, course completions by the commencing cohorts of preceding years should increase, producing more international student departures to offset arrivals, a process that restrictions on applying for further visas will accelerate.”
The report states that on its current trajectory, the government will cause much more damage than is necessary to achieve its policy goals.
“Its mistreatment of people hoping to study in Australia will harm the country’s reputation. Some education providers will close, and others will shrink,” argues the report compiled by Andrew Norton, professor in the Practice of Higher Education Policy at ANU.
“Thousands of people working in the education sector will lose their jobs. Other industries relying on international students as workers and customers will decline.
“International education policy needs a period of pause and reflection, not the current poorly thought-through plan to cap international student numbers”
Speaking to The Epoch Times about the report, Norton said that based on the visa evidence available until June 2024, vocational education international student numbers will fall significantly in the next couple of years due to reduced demand and lower visa grant rates than previously.
“For higher education, student demand and visa grants are lower than the boom levels of 2023, but not yet at a level that would convince the government to abandon the idea of enrolment caps,” he said.
“We should wait and see what happens to the visa numbers in the rest of 2024 and early 2025 before rushing into the caps.”
Further criticising the government for doubling the visa application fees, he described the increase as a clear “rip-off” but noted that it is too early to determine its impact on student demand.
It comes after the University of Melbourne and Monash University released similar reports in June calling international education a vital source of funding for Australia’s universities.
Greens Back Universities, Stand Against Caps
The Greens have come out against the government’s decision to cap the university’s intake of international students.In a statement issued on Aug. 5, Deputy Leader of the Australian Greens and spokesperson for Higher Education, Senator Mehreen Faruqi, said it was “clearly a migration policy disguised as an education policy.”
She accused the Labor government of scapegoating international students in its bid to reduce migration intake.
“Not only are these caps damaging Australia’s reputation as a destination for international students, they are also a direct attack on the fundamental principles of student choice and university independence,” she said.
Faruqi added that such unprecedented ministerial intervention and micromanagement of universities and international students is a “terrible approach.”
Squeezing Student Intake
Education Minister Jason Clare introduced legislation on student caps to Parliament almost immediately after the budget was released.It would grant ministerial powers to regulate international education in Australia by pausing the registration of new providers and new courses, limit the enrolments of overseas students by provider, course, or location over a year, and automatically suspend and cancel courses.
This initiative comes as the government seeks to reduce net overseas migration to pre-pandemic levels of about 260,000 people per year.
Clare said at the time that the changes were aimed at making the sector sustainable.
“The students are now back, but so are the shonks. The shonks and crooks are looking to take advantage of students and make a quick buck at the expense of this critical national asset,” he told Parliament in May.
“Unscrupulous actors ... are a threat to our good name as a place where the best and brightest from around the world can come and get the best education in the world.”
As part of the government’s crackdown on dodgy operators, education institutions also need to prove their track record.
It follows similar actions in Canada and the United Kingdom, which have introduced changes to limit the number of international students in their countries.
The Epoch Times has contacted the Minister for Education Jason Clare’s office for additional comment.
