Universities’ Push for Quantity Over Quality Results in Higher Failure Rates

University graduates in an undated file photo. Chris Ison/PA

Financial incentives are encouraging Australian universities to admit more and more high school graduates that receive low Australian Tertiary Admission Ranks (ATAR) or use alternative admission schemes, resulting in a soaring number of dropouts, a new report found.

While there are calls to scrap ATAR entirely, the Centre of Independent Studies argues that greater, not less, the focus should be placed on ATAR-based university admissions.

Rob Joseph, a data scientist specialising in education, found that higher-ranked ATAR students achieve the highest tertiary completion rates (finishing their degree on time).

Students walk around Sydney University in Sydney, Australia, on April 6, 2016. Brendon Thorne/Getty Images

“Non-ATAR based admissions are almost twice as likely as ATAR-based admissions to drop out of university in their first year,” he said.

“Additionally, completion rates are falling faster for non-ATAR based admissions than any other ATAR band, declining by 4.9 percentage points over the decade, more than twice the drop for all school leavers.”

Fees Taking Precedence Over Ability

Joseph found evidence that universities have been relaxing their admission standards while chasing a “naked desire for more fees revenue.”

Three in ten students enrolled in bachelor courses fail to obtain their degree within six years, and almost one in five drop out completely.

This is not only a waste of taxpayer resources but also a waste of time and money for the students themselves, Joseph said.

Further, he found that only half the students admitted from a low to no ATAR basis have a chance of completion.

Therefore, it seems that past academic success continues to be a significant predictor of future academic success.

Despite this, universities have increased their offer rates from 80 to 90 percent between 2011 and 2021. The greatest increase in offers is seen for low ATAR students—from 18 to 55 percent for students with ATARs under 50.

Meanwhile, the number of students admitted on a non-ATAR basis has increased from 15 percent in 2016 to 25 percent now, a figure that is increasing every year.

According to data from the Department of Education, six-year completion rates fall, and attrition rates rise as the ATAR band gets lower.

Just four percent of school leavers with an ATAR of 95 and above drop out completely, a significantly lower portion than the 39 percent of those with an ATAR of 30-49.

However, the University of Notre Dame was noted as an exception, where almost 90 percent of students are admitted on a non-ATAR basis yet has a completion rate of 72 percent—comparable to the Group of Eight universities and above the national average.

Universities Should Pay Up

While there are some unavoidable circumstances, such as leaving due to factors outside of their control, Joseph said the universities must take some responsibility for this growing issue.

“Some blame must go to the universities themselves for either admitting school leavers with a poor chance of success or not providing them with the support necessary to succeed. That is, universities have a duty of responsible admission standards and providing sufficient student support,” the report said.

Joseph called on the federal government to require universities to foot part of the bill when students drop out.

“This would correct the distorted financial incentives for universities—to enrol as many students as possible and teach them as cheaply as possible—and encourage them to invest in making their admissions process more rigorous and to improve support for students at risk of attrition,” he said.

While universities have opened the door for more young people to obtain a degree, many young people have also left institutions with nothing. Joseph believes the goal should be to help more young students finish their degrees, not just start one.

For high school graduates, completion rates are highest at the University of Melbourne, Bond University, and the University of New South Wales.

Other characteristics associated with lower completion rates include off-campus attendance and low socio-economic background.

Additionally, males have lower completion rates than females, and people who come from an English-speaking background have lower completion rates than people from a non-English-speaking background.