Uncertainty Surrounds Alleged Assassination Attempt on Former Bolivian President

Former Bolivian President Evo Morales speaks on the phone before taking part in the so-called 'March to Save Bolivia' against his former ally, leftist leader Luis Arce- in Ayo Ayo, Bolivia, on Sept. 21, 2024. Aizar Raldes/AFP via Getty Images

News Analysis

Shots were fired at a vehicle transporting former Bolivian President Evo Morales while traveling in Cochabamba department on Oct. 27. The event triggered fierce accusations between the former head of state and the administration of current President Luis Arce.

In a video, Morales can be seen ducking down in the passenger seat of a car while a woman is shouting, and holes are visible in the car’s windshield.

Morales and his supporters say the gunfire was an assassination attempt on the part of Arce’s government. The attack occurred against the backdrop of increased political tensions in recent months, economic turmoil, and a criminal indictment against Morales over the alleged rape of an underage girl.

Arce’s administration has denied any involvement in a plot against Morales. On Monday, Defense Minister Edmundo Novillo officially denounced Morales’ claims of an assassination attempt.

“I want to clarify and deny that both the Armed Forces and the [Bolivian] Police, the Minister of Defense, the Minister of Government and the President had planned to kill former President Evo, something that is totally and absolutely false. We categorically deny it,” Novillo told local reporters.

Bolivia’s Minister of the Government, Eduardo del Castillo, shared a video interview in which Morales admitted to firing on a car that approached his vehicle during the disputed Oct. 27 incident, which took place in the narco-trafficking region of Cochabamba called Chapare.

In the video, Morales admits to shooting first at the wheel of a suspicious car and then trying to escape pursuit. It was during the subsequent chase that the narco-trafficking enforcement unit known as FELCN caught up to Morales and returned fire, according to Castillo.

“I shot at the car wheels that were there, then we escaped,” Morales said in the video interview with Gigavision.

Morales quickly backtracked after the video aired, saying his words were misinterpreted and claimed having a poor understanding of the Spanish language. On social media threads, many Bolivians pointed out that Morales only speaks Spanish and doesn’t speak any indigenous language. This was a point of contention with the opposition during his presidency, which lasted until 2019, since Morales ran on a platform of representing the Andean indigenous people.

During a Monday press conference, Castillo fired back at the accusations against Arce’s government.  “Mr. Morales, nobody believes the theater you have staged,” he said.

Opposing Forces

An increasingly hostile political rivalry has developed between Morales and Arce, who represent the Movement for Socialism party (MAS). The conflict has been worsened in recent months by ongoing fuel shortages, inflation, and depleted foreign currency reserves. The formal accusations against Morales further complicated this, igniting his supporters to establish roadblocks throughout the country in protest. Demonstrators who support Morales are demanding the underage rape charges be dropped along with economic improvements like lower inflation.

As of Oct. 29, local reports stated that the Morales supporter’s roadblocks had endured for 16 days. This includes the departments of Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, and Potosi.

Supporters of former Bolivian President Evo Morales block a road linking Cochabamba with La Paz, near the village of Khora, 20 km from Cochabamba, Bolivia, on Oct. 28, 2024. Aizar Raldes/AFP via Getty Images

Near the community of Mairana in the department of Santa Cruz, clashes between police, local journalists, and supporters of Morales turned violent on Oct. 29 when protesters attacked law enforcement and reporters during the dismantling of a roadblock. A reported 13 police officers were injured as the protesters took journalists and law enforcement agents hostage during a tense standoff that lasted several hours.

The violent escalation arrived just one day after Tarija prosecutor Sandra Gutiérrez prepared to release a “detailed report” in the rape case against Morales.

Gutiérrez told local reporters that she received threats related to the case against the former president, who has been accused of raping and impregnating a girl who was 15 at the time of the alleged incident. Morales has denied the charges, which the prosecution says took place during his presidency in 2015.

During an Oct. 4 press conference, Morales verbally lashed out at Arce and said the accusations were an attempt to further erode his political influence.

“It’s all false. [This case] is closed. [It] is being handled politically to wear down Evo’s image,” he said during the press conference. When a reporter asked Morales if he fathered a child with a minor, he replied: “How many children do you have? Lucho [Arce] said ‘Don’t mess with the family. The family is sacred.’”

The day before Morales’ cryptic remarks, Arce requested a formal investigation into allegations of human trafficking and rape involving Morales.

“This is an issue that, from our point of view, requires the corresponding investigation. For the protection of the minor and the family, who are involved in these issues, we are going to request that it be declared confidential. It cannot be that such a delicate issue that affects even the conscience of all Bolivians is politicized,” Arce said in a statement on the Vice Ministry of Communication’s website.

Bolivian President Luis Arce waves a Bolivian flag at the balcony of the Government Palace in La Paz on June 26, 2024. Aizar Raldes/AFP via Getty Images

Arce was the minister of the economy under Morales’ administration, which ended with both officials resigning and fleeing the country in the wake of widespread protests and evidence of fraud in the 2019 general election. The Organization of American States said the results of their audit of the 2019 election showed “intentional manipulation” and “serious irregularities.”

Since Arce was elected in 2020 and the MAS party returned to power, the current head of state and Morales have engaged in a bitter struggle for power and influence among the indigenous communities and worker unions.

Among the most significant challenges Arce faces is reducing Bolivia’s soaring inflation rate. The annual rate of change in the consumer price index in September 2024 was 6.2 percent.