Ukraine’s recent offensive in Russia’s Kursk region has disrupted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war narrative, raising doubts among Russia’s elites about the trajectory of the conflict, according to top U.S. and UK intelligence officials.
Launched in early August, the Ukrainian offensive saw forces push into Russia’s Kursk region, seizing key territory and capturing prisoners of war.
“It’s typically audacious and bold on the part of the Ukrainians to try and change the game,” Moore said, while Burns referred to the operation as a ”significant tactical achievement“ that has ”raised questions across the Russian elite about where is all this headed.”
Putin’s narrative of an inevitable, grinding victory is now under greater scrutiny. Burns said that the Russian president has claimed that it’s only a matter of time before Kyiv’s forces are ground down and their Western supporters are worn out.
“What these events have done—the Kursk offensive most recently—is to put a dent in that narrative, and it does raise questions in the Russian elite about what is all this for?” Burns said.
Despite Kyiv’s military gains, Burns and Moore cautioned against viewing the operation as a decisive shift in the conflict. Moore noted that while Ukraine’s actions in Kursk have indeed changed the dynamics of the war, the durability of these territorial gains remains uncertain.
Putin has sought to downplay the significance of the Kursk incursion, asserting at an economic forum in Vladivostok on Sept. 5 that the Ukrainian offensive has had minimal impact on Russia’s broader military strategy. He said that by Kyiv shifting well-prepared Ukrainian units into Russian territory, Russia was able to accelerate its offensive operations in the Donbas region, which remains a key focus for Moscow.
Putin also portrayed the incursion as unsuccessful in dividing Russian society, instead claiming that it had strengthened national unity and led to a rise in military enlistments.
Russian forces have indeed intensified operations across eastern Ukraine in recent days, according to an assessment from the Institute for the Study of War, although the think tank said that Putin’s claim that the Kursk offensive has had no impact is “demonstrably false.”
“The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast has had theater-wide impacts and these impacts will likely continue to affect Russian offensive and defensive capabilities beyond the Pokrovsk offensive,” the institute wrote in its assessment.
The Russian military has concentrated some of its efforts on the strategic city of Pokrovsk, which lies along critical supply routes in eastern Ukraine. The offensive is part of a broader attempt to expand Russian control over the western Donetsk region, aimed at cutting off Ukrainian reinforcements and securing more territory, according to the think tank.
Operational pressures caused by Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk have forced Russia to stretch it resources thin, undermining the Pokrovsk offensive despite Putin’s claims, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
