Ukraine at Risk of Losing Kursk Bridgehead Inside Russia

Russian forces reported they have been retaking at least a dozen settlements in the Kursk border region since March 8.

Service members of Ukraine's 117th Brigade of the Territorial Defence Forces operate a Ukrainian-made 120mm mortar towards Russian positions in Sumy region, Ukraine, on March 9, 2025. Diego Fedele/Getty Images

After holding onto a swathe of Russian territory for more than seven months, Ukraine’s occupation of the Kursk region is at a growing risk of collapse.

Ukrainian forces first entered the Russian border region in a surprise Aug. 6 assault, and have since proceeded to battle it out for continued control over that patch of their enemy’s land. At the height of their operation, those Ukrainian troops had managed to seize control over a swathe of territory spanning about 500 square miles. Last month, the Russian military reported it had retaken about 300 square miles of that territory it had lost last summer.

Kyiv’s forces have gradually lost more and more land in the Kursk region over the past several months, albeit over the course of a grinding attritional battle. This past week, Ukraine’s zone of control inside Russia’s borders has rapidly shrunk.

On March 8, reports began to circulate online of a Russian assault force bypassing the Ukrainian lines around the Kursk town of Sudzha, by crawling for miles through a defunct gas pipeline before emerging at a point a short distance north of the key town.

Russia’s Tass news agency reported the pipeline assault force consisted of elements of Russia’s Akhmat special operations unit and 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment. Akhmat commander Lt. Gen. Apty Alaudinov said the infiltration attack threw Ukrainian forces in the area into a panic.

While Alaudinov portrayed a Ukrainian force in disarray, Ukraine’s military General Staff initially said its forces had quickly detected the infiltration and began to eliminate the Russian element with rockets, artillery shells, and attack drones.

“At present, Russian special forces are being detected, blocked, and destroyed. The enemy’s losses in Sudzha are very high,” the Ukrainian military leadership said in a March 8 Facebook post.

Moscow Touts Battlefield Successes

While Ukrainians said they have inflicted heavy casualties on their enemies, the Russian side has portrayed the operation as an overall success. As of March 11, Tass reported the Russian forces had managed to capture 12 settlements surrounding Sudzha, covering an area of about 40 square miles.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense reported its forces had retaken another five settlements in the Kursk region on March 12.

“Except for two or three villages around Sudzha, all other communities are under the control of Russian troops,” Alaudinov told Tass.

The Kremlin shared another video on March 12, purporting to show Russian President Vladimir Putin, dressed in camouflage fatigues, meeting with military leaders in the Kursk region to discuss the recent turn of events.

“Our immediate task is to inflict a complete defeat on the enemy that has dug in in the Kursk Region and still keeps fighting here as promptly as possible, and to completely liberate the entire region,” Putin said.

The Ukrainian military’s General Staff issued a new statement on Wednesday, saying the fighting near Sudzha continues.

A Ukrainian soldier, as seen in a file photo, patrols in the town of Sudzha, in Russia's Kursk region on Aug. 16, 2024. Yan Dobronosov/Reuters

Kyiv’s military leadership also said the Russian side has paid a heavy cost to retake the Kursk territory. In all, the Ukrainian side said has inflicted more than 54,000 casualties on Russia’s forces in and around Kursk since August.

Exact casualty figures cannot be independently verified at this time.

Implications for Peace Negotiation

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had proposed using the territory that Ukrainian forces have held inside Russia’s borders as a bargaining chip for some of the territory that Russia has seized from Ukraine since 2014. It remains to be seen if Ukrainian forces can hold onto any Russian soil long enough to trade it in a potential land swap.

On Tuesday, Ukrainian representatives voiced support for a proposed 30-day cease-fire deal with Russia, which could potentially be extended along the path to a full peace settlement. Moscow has yet to accept the proposed halt in the fighting, which could freeze the conflict along its current battle lines. In addition to announcing the cease-fire proposal, the Trump administration said it would also resume U.S. intelligence sharing and other forms of military assistance to Ukraine.

Addressing the cease-fire proposal and the developments in the Kursk region on Wednesday, Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s military leadership is doing what it can to preserve the lives of its forces.

In an interview with Russia’s Dozhd TV on Wednesday, Russian analyst Ruslan Leviev assessed that the Ukrainian incursion in the Kursk region is likely to draw to a close soon.

“Maybe this story will end today. Maybe they will try to hold the border villages for another couple of days. But overall, the story of the Kursk bridgehead is coming to an end, and Ukrainian troops are leaving,” Leviev said.

Reuters contributed to this report.