The recent increases in CCP virus cases in the UK and Italy, which have similar sized populations, are likely due to mass testing and not to an impending second wave, according to disease experts.
In recent weeks, while case numbers have risen, deaths have not.
This is just over 0.7 percent of the number of confirmed cases.
Italy is presenting a similar picture of rising cases but low death rates, which are currently at around four deaths a day.
“One likely reason is because the test as currently used is not capable of distinguishing those who harbour live virus (infectious) from those who carry fragments of it (not infectious),” Jefferson told The Epoch Times in an email.
“So we have many ‘cases’ which are not infectious or dangerous to the health of the public,” he said.
‘A Bit Alarmist’
Kluge’s comments are echoed by UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock, who said on Tuesday that we “must do everything in our power” to prevent a second wave of the CCP virus.Less Virulent Form
Other reasons for the big discrepancy between cases and deaths were explored by Jefferson and Heneghan in an article they co-authored in the Spectator on Tuesday.Virus mutation to a less virulent form, improved care of virus sufferers, and the preventative measures that were put in place to slow the spread of the disease may all have contributed. None, however, could fully account for the gap, they said.
Heneghan and Jefferson also observed that the demographic of cases testing positive has shifted to a younger age group.
The “very sensitive” PCR tests, they said, are picking up cases which are not infectious but “simply clearing harmless virus particles which their immune system has efficiently dealt with.” Such people are not contagious because “only whole viruses can infect us,” they said
“Young people whose immune systems are relatively more dynamic are exactly in the age group of observed ‘positives’ and least likely to end with severe disease,” they said.
These observations again contrasted with Kluge’s, who said, “I am very concerned that more and more young people are counted among reported cases and among deaths.”
Heneghan and Jefferson suggested the need for an international effort to standardize testing “to avoid this dual reality and the dangers of isolating non-infectious people or whole communities.”