President Donald Trump’s dramatic shift of U.S. energy policy could have a knock-on effect on Europe’s ambitious net zero plans, according to analysts.
Trump’s push for more U.S. domestic drilling and more exports of liquid natural gas (LNG) to Europe has eschewed climate change policies, which could have various direct impacts on the bloc’s energy market and policies.
According to some observers, Trump’s announcements alone are accelerating a shift in the debate on energy and climate in Europe, where ambitious climate change goals are increasingly being challenged at the ballot box by a populist backlash.
Those goals remain unchanged, some European leaders maintained, after Trump announced that the United States is withdrawing from the Paris climate accord.
Review of EU Green Deal
Not all EU countries are on board.Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has called for a review of the European Green Deal, warning that high energy prices could topple democratic governments.
Speaking in Strasbourg on Jan. 22, Tusk said some EU regulations have led to a situation in which “energy prices are too high.”
The veteran center-right leader told members of the European Parliament that high energy prices “might bring the downfall of many democratic governments.”
Andy Mayer, COO and energy analyst at the free-market think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs told The Epoch Times that Tusk’s remarks reflect the growing realization among Europe’s decision-makers that “climate optimism is no substitute for dispatchable power.”
He noted that the United States spent 20 years developing its oil and gas resources through fracking, offshore drilling, and pipeline projects, but the EU did not.
“The EU members spent it crippling new nuclear, banning fossil fuels, and being blind to the dangers of dependency on Russia,” said Mayer, adding that the result is higher bills, industrial offshoring, and growing fears of power cuts.
“The trade-off, being the best place in the world to sell renewable technology, has not made the EU world leaders in making it, as like any other heavy industry, competitive advantage in production relies on secure, cheap energy,” he said.
However, Mayer warned that a “green growth paradox” is now translating into the public noticing a relative decline and turning to populist parties for solutions.
‘A Communication Revolution’
Samuel Furfari, a chemical engineer and former top EU energy policy official, told The Epoch Times that Trump has started a “communication revolution” around energy.He said that even before Trump’s first term in 2016, people did not realize the scale of change U.S. shale gas represented, which he called an “energy revolution.”
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, from January through September 2024, the U.S. produced 81.2 billion cubic feet of shale gas per day, extracted through hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling.
“Mr. Trump created a communication revolution, not an energy revolution, because the energy revolution was already in place,” Furfari said.
He said wind and solar energy can only be developed with subsidies.
“The reality is that the price of electricity in Europe is increasing because of renewable energy,” he said.
He explained that Poland managed to diversify its gas sources with supplies from Norway, Qatar, and the United States, as well as a terminal for its own gas in the Baltic Sea, before the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
‘America First’
Think tank MCC’s Brussels energy analyst Richard Schenk told The Epoch Times the winds are changing direction, but the EU is such “a huge anchor” that it can take years to reverse course.Schenk said that ultimately the EU wants to avoid natural gas altogether and have as many renewables as possible.
He estimates renewables can “provide 30 to 40 percent of our electricity needs, but by no means can they completely get rid of fossil or nuclear or anything, because the new storage technologies are still not out there.”
“Hydrogen is basically a dud so far,” he said.
He also said that Trump’s determination to make the EU an even bigger purchaser of U.S. LNG isn’t necessarily a silver bullet to the EU’s energy woes.
“It’s much easier, actually, in the long term, to bring the factories and installations to the U.S. than bringing the LNG from the U.S. to Europe,” he said, noting that one of the biggest German chemical companies, BASF, has already done so.
“These guys actually first substituted Russian gas for American LNG, but now what they’re actually doing is dismantling the entire factory and bringing it to Texas,” he said.
He said LNG is much more expensive than piped natural gas, and because energy prices are already higher in Europe, its industries could continue to shift long-term to the United States.
He said that is what “America First” policies are aiming for.
“Europe has to find an answer to this one,” he said.
Schenk said a commitment to nuclear power would support the EU’s fledgling economy. However, in Germany, the EU’s largest economy, the situation is complicated.
Germany decommissioned its last three operating nuclear power plants in April 2023, following a 2011 decision by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Schenk said Germany could return to nuclear energy after the next election on Feb. 23 if the front runners of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) commit to its election manifesto which includes examining “the possibility of restarting operations at the nuclear power plants that were recently shut down.”
However, chancellor hopeful Friedrich Merz appeared to dismiss this option.
Chances of reactivation are “lower by the week,” Merz added.
“We will see,” said Schenk. “They are changing their minds all the time.”
