Trudeau Says Canada Expects to Meet NATO’s Defence Spending Target by 2032

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau walks off the stage following an official welcome at the NATO summit in Washington on July 10, 2024. The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Canada “fully expects” to reach NATO’s defence spending target by 2032, but did not offer up any concrete details on how his government plans to hit the 2 percent benchmark.

Canada’s announcement came on the final day of the NATO Summit in Washington, D.C., after days of criticism for being the lone member country that had yet to lay out a plan to meet the 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) spending requirement.

“We will continue to explore opportunities that will further increase defence spending and advance Canada’s strategic interests,” Mr. Trudeau said at a July 11 press conference.

“We have shown that a responsible government steps up in a changing world and does the necessary work not just to increase defence spending, but to do it in the right way.”

As part of the process, Ottawa has committed to a “regular cycle” of defence reviews which will include a new defence policy update in 2028, the prime minister said.

All NATO allies, including Canada, renewed their pledge last summer to spend at least 2 percent of the country’s GDP on defence. Canada currently spends just shy of 1.4 percent of its GDP on the military. The number of countries expected to meet that goal this year has risen to 23 from 10, but Canada is not among that number.

Canada’s updated defence policy released in April aims to reach 1.76 percent by 2029.

Mr. Trudeau has been under pressure from allies this week to produce a plan showing how Canada will meet its 2 percent commitment.

The prime minister said on July 11 that Canada does have clear plans in place, citing Ottawa’s North Strong and Free defence policy update which lays out “a credible, concrete plan that gets us to 1.74 percent by 2030.”

Add to that the government’s plan to grow enlistment, procure as many as 12 under-ice capable submarines, and continue with “other capabilities that we’re developing” and that means “we can say with confidence and assurance that we will hit the 2 percent spending mark by 2032,” Mr. Trudeau said.

The prime minister said using the 2 percent spending guideline as a metric to judge whether or not a country is living up to its NATO commitments is unfair.

“We continually step up and punch above our weight, something that isn’t always reflected in the crass mathematical calculation that certain people turn to very quickly, which is why we’ve always questioned the 2 percent as the be-all and end-all of evaluating contributions to NATO.”

He went on to say that it would be easy to “shift some accounting,” or hand “every Coast Guard member a handgun” to meet Canada’s commitment, but added that it was more important to make “responsible” investments to build up the military.

“Our approach on defence is … not some nominal targets that make for easy headlines and accounting practices but don’t actually make us automatically safer,” he added.

Words of Criticism

Canada’s approach to meeting its NATO obligation has been met with criticism in the United States, especially from congressional Republican leaders.

“Shared values and close economic ties have always been the strength of the U.S.-Canada relationship,” Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell wrote on X after meeting with Mr. Trudeau July 9. “But it’s time for our northern ally to invest seriously in the hard power required to help preserve prosperity and security across NATO.”

Sen. McConnell delivered similar remarks on the Senate floor the same day. He highlighted different threats faced by the military alliance, saying that is why the 2 percent spending target is a “floor, not a ceiling.”

“These lessons apply as much to America as they do to our European allies. And they apply even more so to our neighbour to the north–Canada is one of the only allies without a plan to reach the 2 percent spending target.”

Congressman Mike Johnson, the Republican majority leader in the House of Representatives, did not meet with the prime minister, but he was also critical of Canada’s defence spending, calling it “shameful.”

“Talking about riding on America’s coattails,” he said while talking with the Hudson Institute on July 9.

The sharp criticism from Congress Republicans came after a group of bipartisan U.S. senators wrote a letter to Mr. Trudeau in May, in reaction to the spending figures projected in the defence policy update.

“As we approach the 2024 NATO Summit in Washington, D.C., we are concerned and profoundly disappointed that Canada’s most recent projection indicated that it will not reach its two percent commitment this decade,” says the letter.

The projection has also been challenged internally by the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO), in a July 8 report.

Based on its calculations, the PBO said Canada is further away from the NATO 2 percent guideline than Ottawa has projected. Instead of reaching 1.76 percent by 2029, the PBO said Canada would reach 1.43 percent of GDP spending on defence.

Noé Chartier contributed to this report.