Tropical Storm Rafael Strengthens to Hurricane as It Heads Toward Cuba

The National Hurricane Center’s forecasted track of Tropical Storm Rafael as of 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 4, 2024. (National Hurricane Center/National Weather Service).

Tropical Storm Rafael intensified into a Category 1 hurricane as it moved through the Cayman Islands in the Caribbean on Tuesday, heading toward Cuba, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Rafael reached maximum sustained winds of 75 mph at 7:20 p.m. ET on Nov. 5, moving northwest, with its center located 20 miles southeast of Little Cayman in the Caribbean Sea, the NHC said on X.

The center said the storm could “rapidly intensify” into a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall in Cuba, and then moving toward the Gulf of Mexico.

“Rafael could briefly weaken over Cuba but is then expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane,” the NHC stated in its advisory.

A hurricane warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth, according to the advisory.

The Cayman Islands government issued a shelter-in-place advisory for Sister Islands and Grand Cayman on Nov. 5, urging the public to stay away from the coastlines until an official all-clear is issued. An all-clear was later issued for Grand Cayman early Nov. 6.

The government warned of possible damage to power lines and water systems due to the storm but assured residents that it had prepared all the necessary resources.

“As the storm approaches, the public is reminded that expected impacts include damage to infrastructure, property and foliage,” it stated.

The storm could bring hurricane-force winds, flooding in low-lying and coastal areas, occasional lightning and thunder, along with a storm surge of up to 3 feet in the Cayman Islands, the government said.

The U.S. State Department also issued an advisory for Cuba on Tuesday, allowing the voluntary departure of non-emergency staff and their eligible family members from the island.

The department also urged U.S. citizens in Cuba who wish to depart the island to do so immediately and advised Americans to reconsider travel to Cuba due to the potential impact of the storm.

The NHC stated that heavy rainfall will affect Jamaica and the Cayman Islands through Thursday, extending into southern and western areas of Cuba. Rainfall totals are expected to range from 3 to 6 inches, which could lead to flash floods and mudslides. The center also forecasted that rainfall could reach 1 to 3 inches in the Lower Florida Keys.

The center warned that storm surges could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands. Water levels are expected to increase by 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along the southern coast of Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, on Wednesday.

The NHC also warned of the possibility of tornadoes over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland on Wednesday.