Tropical Storm Bret Strengthens in Atlantic, Poses Potential Hurricane Risk to Caribbean Islands

A geocolor satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret, which formed in the Tropical Central Atlantic with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, on June 19, 2023. National Hurricane Center

Tropical Storm Bret, which formed in the central Atlantic Ocean on Monday, has the potential to become a hurricane and poses a risk to the eastern Caribbean by Thursday, followed by the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the upcoming weekend, according to forecasters.

As of 5 p.m. on Monday, Bret had sustained maximum winds of 40 mph (65 kph) and was moving westward at a speed of 21 mph (33 kph) across the Atlantic.

Over the next two days, forecasters anticipate Bret to intensify and reach hurricane strength of Category 1, with winds reaching 74 mph (120 kph) by Wednesday night near the Lesser Antilles. However, due to wind shear, the storm is not expected to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane.

Bret is anticipated to cross the Lesser Antilles as a hurricane on Thursday and Friday, resulting in heavy rainfall, potential flooding, and the threat of dangerous storm surges and waves, the National Hurricane Center wrote in a forecast discussion post. While still situated in the eastern Caribbean region, the storm is expected to gradually weaken.

However, the National Hurricane Center cautioned that the accuracy of this forecast remains uncertain, noting it as a prediction with low confidence.

Tropical Storm Bret's forecast track map, on June 19, 2023. National Hurricane Center

“Everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor updates to the forecast for this system and have their hurricane plan in place,” the center said.

The National Hurricane Center indicated that there is a chance that Bret could alter its course and veer northward or continue westward, potentially posing a threat to the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and other neighboring islands.

The center acknowledged the existence of “larger than usual uncertainty” regarding the storm’s projected path.

It is uncommon for storms to form in this region in June, and it is one of the few tropical storms to receive a name in that area during this month.

According to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University, it has been 90 years since a storm in the tropical Atlantic intensified into a hurricane during the month of June. He noted on Twitter that the last such recorded storm was Trinidad in 1933.

The first named storm of the 2023 season, Tropical Storm Arlene, formed earlier this month but dissipated within two days without posing a risk of landfall. Previously, a subtropical storm had developed in the Atlantic Basin in January.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a forecast for this year’s hurricane season, predicting a total of 12 to 17 named storms. They anticipate that between five and nine of these storms may become hurricanes, including the possibility of up to four major hurricanes reaching Category 3 or higher.

Additionally, the National Hurricane Center has identified a tropical disturbance trailing behind Bret, which currently holds a 60 percent chance of formation—up from 50 percent earlier on Monday, according to Klotzbach.

The Associate Press contributed to this report.