Tories Tied With Bloc in Quebec, Immigration at Play: Pollster

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre speaks to the media during a press conference in Montreal on July 12, 2024. (The Canadian Press/Christinne Muschi)

A new survey shows the Conservative Party is in a statistical tie with the Bloc Québécois in Quebec, a development that may be linked to changing opinions on immigration, the pollster suggests.

Abacus Data published its latest national poll on Aug. 11, with some longtime trends such as a solid Tory lead being maintained. If an election were held now, 43 percent of committed voters said they would choose the Conservatives, whereas 23 percent would elect the Liberals.

The Conservatives are keeping their lead nationally, but they’re also gaining ground in Quebec, where they capture 31 percent of committed voter intentions compared to 30 percent for the Bloc.

Abacus CEO David Coletto noted in a related Substack post that it’s been some time since a poll has shown this much support for the Conservatives in Quebec.

“The result had me and others wondering if it was caused by normal sampling error or whether something real was happening in Quebec,” Coletto wrote, noting caution is in order given the small sample size.

The pollster said attitudes around immigration have shifted rapidly during the past 14 months and is becoming a top concern as a “scarcity mindset” sets in due to affordability issues.

“The link between the affordability crisis and the rise in anti-immigration policy sentiment is very strong,” said Coletto.

The Abacus survey suggests one in four Canadians sees immigration as a top issue. The cost of living tops the list of the most important issues facing Canada at 64 percent, followed by health care at 44 percent, housing at 43 percent, and the economy at 32 percent.

Immigration and climate change and the environment are tied for fifth place at 25 percent.

As for Quebec, worries about immigration climb to 35 percent, the highest level among provinces and regions. Factors such as concerns about preserving Quebec’s culture and language play a role, said Coletto.

The pollster said this has the potential to shift political allegiances in Quebec to the benefit of the Conservatives.

He notes that among the 35 percent of Quebecers who view immigration as a top issue, 47 percent support the Tories, 27 percent support the Bloc, and 18 percent support the Liberals.

Quebecers who don’t prioritize immigration support the Bloc in larger numbers (32 percent), followed by the Liberals at 27 percent and the Conservatives at 22 percent.

This is a “clear indication that views on immigration may be impacting support in Quebec,” Coletto said.

He noted that the issue is not just “peripheral” but has the potential to be a “driving force” in the province, and said it explains why Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is raising the issue.

Poilievre’s main message has centred around affordability and fighting crime, but when prompted he has criticized Ottawa’s immigration policies. Asked by reporters to comment on the rising youth unemployment rate and temporary foreign workers on Aug. 9, Poilievre said he challenges the government to “bring the numbers down.”

Statistics Canada noted in its latest Labour Force Survey that youth unemployment is at its highest since 2012 (14.2 percent), outside the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. Meanwhile, the agency counted more than 1.6 million holders of work permits and work and study permits in the second quarter of 2024.

The temporary foreign worker program “should never be used to bring in low-wage workers from poor countries, to take jobs away from or suppress the wages of Canadian workers,” Poilievre said.

Ottawa has reacted to the trend, with Employment and Social Development Canada saying last week it would apply its program rules more stringently to reduce fraud and misuse. Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault has also signalled he could stop processing requests under the low-wage stream.

Impressions of Poilievre

Aside from noting changes in Quebec, Abacus also reported an increase in positive impressions of Poilievre and an increase in the Conservatives’ voter pool.

Abacus says the Conservative pool is 16 points larger than the Liberals’, with 55 percent of respondents saying they’re open to voting for the Tories compared to 39 percent for the Liberals.

Positive impressions of Poilievre reached 42 percent, the highest ever measured by the firm, Abacus said. In contrast, 35 percent of respondents had a negative view. Poilievre’s positive impressions increased by four points over the summer and his net score of plus seven is also the highest measured by Abacus.

Impressions of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have not changed. Twenty-five percent of respondents have a positive view and 58 percent have a negative view of him, the survey found. Negative views have hovered between 57 and 59 percent since the start of the year.

The poll also said that 84 percent of respondents are ready for political change, with 53 percent saying there’s a “good alternative” to the governing Liberals.