If a federal election were called today, 44 percent of committed voters would cast a ballot for the Conservatives, according to a newly released poll.
The Pierre Poilievre Conservatives have a substantial 20-point lead ahead of the governing Liberals with the Tories leading among all age groups polled, the Abacus Data survey found.
“This 20-point lead is the largest we have ever measured for the Conservatives and the first time the Conservative vote share has hit 44% nationally,” said a release from Abacus on the survey results.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals would garner just 24 percent of the vote, while the NDP sits at 17 percent support, and the Greens at 5 percent, according to the survey data. The Bloc Quebecois has 29 percent support in Quebec.
Abacus Data CEO David Coletto noted in the release that the April 1 increase in the carbon tax did not appear to impact the Liberals’ polling numbers but said more weeks of data could be required to confirm the numbers and the impact of the increase. The survey of 2,000 people was held between April 3 and 9.
Recent federal budget announcements, in which the prime minister has promised billions of dollars in spending for housing initiatives and child-care programs, have also not had much impact in boosting the Liberals, Mr. Coletto noted.
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“This is where I think the Trudeau government finds itself right now. The problem may not be one of policy but of leadership,” he said.
The Tory lead is among the highest for the party since Mr. Trudeau’s initial electoral win in 2015.
While the Abacus Data polling doesn’t estimate how the national polling would translate into seats in the House of Commons, past polling by the firm 338Canada, which put the Tories at 42 percent, estimated the party could win between 180 and 226 seats, well above the 170 seats required for a majority.
Abacus Data notes the Tories hold a commanding lead across all provinces except Quebec where they trail only slightly behind the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois.
In Atlantic Canada, formerly a stronghold for the Liberals, the Tories are approaching 50 percent support and in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba they have surpassed the 50 percent mark.
The Tories also lead in every single age group, including the 18 to 29 bracket where they have 42 percent support. The party leads the Liberals by a substantial margin among both men and women.
Abacus Data has linked the loss in popularity for the Liberals to a loss of confidence in the direction of the country among Canadians over the last two years.
Polling by Abacus Data found that while 41 percent of Canadians felt the country was heading in the right direction in early May of 2022, that number had shrunk to just 26 percent as of this month.
Impressions of Mr. Trudeau and his government have also slumped, with 58 percent of respondents now having a negative view of the prime minister, while 60 percent disapprove of his government.
While the Tories hold a commanding lead over the Liberals, views of Mr. Poilievre are somewhat mixed, with 39 percent approval and 34 percent disapproval.
Mr. Poilievre is viewed as a leader on most issues for those polled, including making life more affordable for Canadians and building more housing, while Mr. Trudeau enjoys more confidence among voters on environmental issues and making child care more affordable.
