The Conservative party has maintained its large lead over Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals according to a new poll, despite a host of new funding announcements in the government’s recently released budget.
The Pierre Poilievre-led Tories have a 21 percent lead across all demographic groups in every region of the country with the exception of Quebec, a new poll from Abacus Data suggests.
“There has been no movement in the polls in favour of the Liberals over a week after the federal budget was announced,” Abacus CEO David Coletto said in a blog post. “At 21 points, this Conservative lead represents the largest we have ever measured for the party.”
Canadians were also asked to choose their preferred candidate for prime minister. Mr. Poilievre led Mr. Trudeau by 20 points overall and was the No. 1 pick in every region or province in the country, including in Quebec.
Last month Abacus reported the Tories had a 20-point lead ahead of the governing Liberals with the Conservatives’ vote share at 44 percent nationally.
If an election were held today, 44 percent of committed voters still say they would vote Conservative, the latest poll said. The Liberals would garner a 23 percent share of the vote, while the NDP would nab 17 percent and the Green Party 4 percent.
The Conservatives enjoy a substantial lead in the Prairies, averaging a 60 percent share of the vote compared to the Liberals at 13.5 percent. In Ontario, 46 percent of those surveyed said they would vote Conservative while 27 percent indicated they would vote Liberal. Support was also high for the Tories in Atlantic Canada at 49 percent compared to 28 percent for the Liberals.
The Tories enjoy 43 percent support in British Columbia compared to 19 percent for the Liberals. The two parties are neck-and-neck in Quebec at 28 percent while the Bloc Quebecois has 33 percent support.
Accessible Voter Pool
Voting intentions may not have changed over the past few months, but the accessible voter pool has changed dramatically according to the poll.When asked if they would consider voting for each of the main political parties, 53 percent of those surveyed said they were open to voting Conservative, unchanged from the previous poll.
Only 37 percent were open to voting Liberal, however, down four points over two weeks, while 40 percent were open to voting for the NDP. The change means the NDP now has a larger accessible voter pool than the Liberals.
While the Liberal support appears to be on the decline, impressions of the prime minister remain consistent. Fifty-eight percent of those polled said they had a negative impression of Mr. Trudeau while 24 percent had a positive view for a net score of -34.
In contrast, Mr. Poilievre’s image improved with 40 percent viewing him positively and 34 percent negatively for a net score of +6.
Voter Issues
The issues near and dear to voters’ hearts have not changed since the beginning of the year, Mr. Coletto said.“The cost of living, housing, and health care are the top issues followed by the economy, immigration, and climate change and the environment,” he wrote. “There has been no notable shift in issue salience since February.”
The Conservatives were considered the best party to deal with the rising cost of living, housing, the economy, and immigration, the survey said. The results put the NDP at the top for handling inequality and poverty, while the Liberals led on climate and the environment. The three parties tied on health care.
“Since February, the Liberals have seen modest improvements on health care, housing, and inequality but the Conservatives have gained as much or more on the same issues,” Mr. Coletto noted. “The NDP has seen drops in all of the issues.”
