Tonga’s New PM May Not Last the Year, Observers Say

Tonga's new Prime Minister designate 'Aisake Valu Eke speaks to his nomination at the Tonga Legislative Assembly before the secret ballot for prime minister in Nuku'alofa, Tonga, on Dec. 24, 2024. Tupou Vaipulu/AFP via Getty Images

The small Pacific nation of Tonga, with a population of around 105,000, has appointed a new Prime Minister, ‘Aisake Eke.

However, political observers are skeptical about his government’s longevity, with many predicting his predecessor, Hu'akavameiliku Saiosi Sovaleni, could return to power later this year.

Solaveni resigned on Dec.9 ahead of a vote of no confidence, the second he faced in 2023.

Under Tongan law, the Parliament elects the Prime Minister. Eke, a former Finance Minister, won in a secret ballot by 16 votes to 8, defeating the only other candidate, Trade Minister Viliame Latu, who the current government nominated.

A Monarchical Democracy

Like Australia, Tonga operates as a monarchical democracy. However, King Tupou VI plays a very different role than King Charles III or the Governor-General. He holds significant powers, including dissolving parliament, appointing judges, and vetoing laws.

In addition to 17 elected MPs, nine nobles are appointed to Parliament by hereditary chiefs, making royal and noble support crucial for any government to hold power.

Eke, who initiated the latest no-confidence vote, reportedly won with the backing of 14 MPs, including three nobles.

However, his path forward may be fraught with the same challenges that plagued Sovaleni’s administration,  who had strained relations with the monarchy after reforms in 2010 transferred power from the royal family and nobles to the people.

Rival May Be Set For a Comeback

Despite his resignation, Solaveni remains a popular figure, particularly in his unchallenged constituency on Tongatapu, Tonga’s largest island and home to two-thirds of the population.

Political commentator Kalafi Moala told RNZ that many believe forming a government under Eke is a “waste of time and money,” as Solaveni is expected to have enough support to be re-elected when the new Parliament is formed.

Eke’s Challenges Ahead

Eke entered Tongan politics in 2010 and held several high-profile positions before losing his seat in 2017.

As Finance Minister, he worked at the World Bank in Washington on financial reform programs for Tonga.

He returned to parliament in 2021 and was in the running for Prime Minister but lost out to Sovaleni.

Among the challenges he will face is ensuring Tonga is up-to-date with preparations to host the 2031 Pacific Games, a multi-sport event held every four years among athletes from Oceania.

For now, Eke leads Tonga’s government, but the looming election may ultimately decide who truly holds the reins of power in the island nation.