The Trans-Karakoram Valley: Small Civilizational Corridor Is China’s Base to a Larger Geo-Political Game, Analysts Say

A view of the highway through the Karakoram mountains connecting the Kashmir valley with Ladakh, India, on June 21, 2020. (Tauseef Mustafa/AFP via Getty Images)

In the second part of our series on China’s moves to capture resources along the Indian frontier, we focus on the Trans-Karakoram Tract, also known as the Shaksgam Valley—its history, strategic significance, and foremost, the tensions brought about by its contested status between India and China.

A desolate, arid region high in the Trans-Himalayas is now an unlikely pawn in the geopolitical struggle between China and India. 

The Trans-Karakoram Tract is a narrow stretch of land roughly the size of Puerto Rico, sandwiched between South and Central Asia. The distinct geography of the high-altitude region is an intricate mesh of towering peaks, massive glaciers, glacier-fed rivers, and deep gorges.

Despite its inhospitable terrain, however, the Trans-Karakoram Tract has historically been a coveted piece of real estate due to its strategic location between continents. Today, considerable but largely unexploited mineral resources add to its allure. Controlled by China but claimed by India, it is a remote front line in the ongoing struggle between the neighboring giants.

The Trans-Karakoram Tract, also called the Shaksgam Valley, is claimed by both India and China. The graphics show the territory as it appears on both Indian and Chinese maps. On the Chinese map, the Trans-Karakoram Tract is part of Khasghar Prefecture (see enlargement on right). (Illustration by The Epoch Times / Shutterstock)

A Multinational Geography

To understand the geopolitics entrenched in this narrow tract of land, it’s important to understand its complex geography, and in particular, the current context of China’s economic activities there.

Most of today’s contested Trans-Karakoram Tract consists of the Shaksgam Valley, the basin of the glacier-fed Shaksgam River. During colonial times, it also included the Raskam Valley, the basin of the Raskam River to the north.

The Raskam and Shaksgam rivers converge at Chog Jangal to form the Yarkand River, along which the ancient Silk Road ran. The network of Eurasian trade routes, active from the second century B.C. through the mid-1600s, carried goods, ideas, and culture from east to west.

Among the countless travelers who made their way along the 4,000 mile route, one is of special significance in this context: the Chinese Buddhist explorer Fa-hsien, who spread Buddhist teachings from India to China and left a detailed travelogue of his 10,000-mile journey.

According to former Indian diplomat Sujan R. Chinoy, director general of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses in New Delhi, the Raskam Valley was “practically” conceded to the Chinese by the British by 1927, and claimed by China under a “boundary agreement” in 1963. The former ambassador detailed the contentious history of the region in a 2020 paper titled “The Forgotten Fact of ‘China Occupied Kashmir.’”

The wider region that includes the Shaksgam Valley contains three strategic junctions. The first is the Wakhan Corridor, a narrow strip belonging to Afghanistan that lies to the north west. The passageway ends in a tri-junction: Tajikistan to the north, China to the east, and Pakistan to the south.

The second is the Mintaka Pass, which formed the old Silk Road and today is a junction between China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. The seventh-century Chinese Buddhist monk Xuanzang traveled by the Mintaka Pass on his way back from ancient India to Chang'an.

The third is Sia Kangri peak, one of the highest mountains in the world, which marks the junction of India, China, and Pakistan. It lies roughly at the mid-southern point of Shaksgam Valley and is just 140 miles from Mintaka Pass.

This graphic shows the connecting corridor between South Asia and Central Asia vis-a-vis (1) the disputed territory of Shaksgam valley and (2) the Siachin Glacier. Sometimes called "the highest battleground on earth," the Siachin Glacier has been the site of intermittent conflict between India and Pakistan since 1984. (Illustration by The Epoch Times / Shutterstock)

The Mintaka Pass and the Wakhan Corridor have great strategic significance. S.D. Pradhan, former deputy national security adviser for India, told The Epoch Times, “Besides its value as the old silk route, [it] is important for establishing links with Central Asia. Another point is that according to [Pakistan] experts this region is very rich in mineral resources.”

In addition, he said, China considers the territory to be part of the Chalachigu Valley, one of three border crossings between China and Afghanistan.

Thus, the Shaksgam Valley, along with the Raskam Valley and the Pamirs—mountain ranges on China’s borders with Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan—forms a valuable territorial gateway between Central Asia and Xinjiang, and from Central Asia to South Asia.

‘Road to Nowhere’

Prior to today’s technology, it might have taken years for Chinese developments in the region to come to light. Thanks to satellite technology, however, new infrastructure is hard to hide. Thus a new road in Xinjiang, branching off the G219 highway—one of two major routes in the area—and apparently going nowhere, made headlines this spring and caused new strategic concerns in India.

Satellite images captured by the European Space Agency and reviewed by India Today’s open-source intelligence team revealed that construction of the road began in June 2023, according to the news magazine.

The road winds through the Aghil Pass, an old mountain pass used by camel caravans, and disappears into the mountains in the Shaksgam Valley at a point approximately 50 miles north of Indira Col, the northernmost point administered by India.

“The Shaksgam Valley, we consider it our own territory,” said Randhir Jaiswal, the spokesperson of the Indian External Affairs Ministry during a regular press briefing on May 2. “We have registered a protest with the Chinese side against illegal attempts to alter facts on the ground. We further reserve the right to take necessary measures to safeguard our interests.”

A new road built by China in the Shaksgam valley branches out from G219 (that connects Xinjiang to Tibet) and disappears 50 miles north of India’s northernmost administered point, Indira Col, in Siachen Glacier. (Illustration by The Epoch Times / Shutterstock)

Mr. Pradhan said he believes the road could actually be leading to arms silos like the nuclear silos that China has built in Tibet. He points out that the extreme cold and the desolate location of the Shaksgam Valley are ideal for storing spent nuclear fuel.

“China, which is producing every year a large number of nuclear weapons, must be finding it difficult to keep the spent nuclear fuel (SNF) safely. The SNF can be reused until all its uranium is exhausted. Thus, it cannot be thrown away as a waste,” Mr. Pradhan said, adding that the SNF must be kept in storage pools for at least a year to allow it to cool down before being recycled or disposed of.

“I think China is using this region for keeping its spent nuclear fuel. In that cold environment, the SNF can be safely kept there for the required period. In addition, this can provide a safe region to deploy its nuclear weapons/missile and for strengthening its deterrence against India. Such a deployment would be India specific.”

Significantly, the new road goes eastward, connecting it with the G219 highway that links Xinjiang with Tibet, according to Mr. Pradhan. Since 2018 there has been no effort to construct westwards, he added.

This map shows the location of the Karakoram Highway vis-a-vis the Raskam Valley and the Shaksgam Valley, and the location of the Trans-Karakoram Tract with respect to the trails of the ancient Silk Road. Trail 1, between Gilgit and Khasgha, roughly followed the ancient grand trunk road to the Indian sub-continent. Meanwhile, Trail 2 went from Leh to Yarkhand. From Leh through Himachal Pradesh it went across the Himalayas and to other towns in India. China used Trail 1 to build the Karakoram Highway.  (Illustration by The Epoch Times / Shutterstock)

The Friendship Highway

Today, one of the major routes of the old Silk Road is roughly traced by the Karakoram Highway, the other major route through the region. The highway, one of the highest paved roads in the world, was built as a “friendship highway” by Pakistan and China as part of a 1963 border agreement.

Construction of the Karakoram Highway began in 1966 and was finally completed 12 years later. The “friendship highway” has been realigned multiple times since its completion, adding to the geo-political drama of the region.

Originally 715 miles long, the highway begins in Pakistan, then runs through the disputed Gilgit-Baltistan region—controlled by Pakistan but claimed by India. It then winds through the Hunza Valley and enters Xinjiang through the lofty Khunjerab Pass at a breathtaking 15,397 feet elevation. It then roughly follows the traditional path of the Silk Road to the legendary caravan city of Kashghar.

Despite its high elevation and the hostile terrain that made its construction difficult, the highway has seen several improvements and realignments since its completion. In 2010, a large landslide on the bank of the Hunza River created a huge, potentially unstable barrier lake, inundating the highway for miles, and making it necessary to reroute it around the new lake. The China Road and Bridge Corporation and the Pakistan National Highway Authority worked together on the project.

Mr. Pradhan’s apprehension about China establishing arm silos for SNF in Shaksgam Valley is linked to the wider region’s nuclear history, particularly that of the Karakoram Highway. In addition to its more benign role as a tourist attraction, the highway is also known as the “highway of nuclear and missile proliferation.”

In 2001, American satellites reportedly detected 12 consignments of Chinese missiles being shipped to Pakistan by way of the Karakoram Highway, according to a 2009 report from the Congressional Research Service.

Lt. Col. (res.) Dany Shoham, a former senior analyst in military intelligence for the Israeli Defense Forces, described the Karakoram Highway as a “concealed terrestrial interface between North Korea and Pakistan via China,” in a BESA Center Perspectives Paper in 2020.

“Intelligence satellites have detected that the Karakoram Highway has been used to supply illicit nuclear material and dual-use items for missiles,” he said.

In fact, the entire corridor in this frontier has been a nuclear belt since the 1950s.

Iqbal Chand Malhotra, in his book “Dark Secrets,” wrote that the Soviets “single-handedly” extracted uranium and other key elements from Aksai Chin, the vast desert adjoining the Trans-Karakoram Tract. Aksai Chin is also controlled by China but claimed by India. The materials were reportedly shipped by road to the Soviet Union in late 1954, he said.

Now, one analyst says a new road—little more than an unpaved track—signals that China continues to exploit the region for its nuclear program.

Frank Lehberger, a Europe-based sinologist, told The Epoch Times he has analyzed the “dirt track,” which branches from the provincial road that connects the Karakoram Highway and G219. That track “ends in the wilderness some 40 kilometers northeast of Aghil Pass,” he said, citing Google Earth.

“However it largely bypasses [the] Aghil Pass by another valley which runs east to west some 50 kilometers to the north. Google earth only shows an extension from this provincial road in form of a dirt track of [about] 20 kilometers in length, but which ends in the wilderness some 40 kilometers north east of Aghil Pass,” he said.

Mr. Pradhan told The Epoch Times that the presence of a dirt track from the provincial road connecting G219 with the Karakoram highway could mean two things. First, it could mean that the Chinese are exploring mineral resources in that area, including nuclear resources like uranium. Indirectly, the region is a source of plutonium, which is extracted from uranium.  

“It is certain that uranium is there including in [larger] Gilgit-Baltistan. The Chinese are badly in need of plutonium for their nuclear reactors,” he said.

The dirt track could also signify that the Chinese are trying to develop more infrastructure and roads in the inhospitable region to solidify their control over the territory, he said.

Locals herd sheep on the Karakoram Highway near the village of Gulmit, in the Hunza Valley, in northern Pakistan on Sept. 29, 2015. (Aamir Qureshi/AFP via Getty Images)

Untapped Water and Mineral Resources

Apart from its strategic and economic value for China due to its proximity to Afghanistan, Tajikistan, India, and Tibet, the Trans-Karakoram Tract is notable as being one of the world’s highest glacial regions. Its 242 glaciers, significant water resources and minerals contribute to its great interest to China, according to experts.

Control over water resources is important to industrial development, Mr. Pradhan said, and the resources of the Trans-Karakoram Tract should be understood in light of China’s massive infrastructure development in the larger region under its control, as well as its industrial investment in Pakistan.

According to experts, the region’s glaciers represent a critical freshwater reserve, which is vital given the extensive requirements of water for industries in Xinjiang such as microchip manufacturing.

“All of China’s major rivers, like the Yangtze, the Yellow River and the Mekong, are already choked with effluents. The Taklamakan desert provides sand in abundance, and there is a huge reserve of water stored in the lakes, rivers, and glaciers in the Himalayan and Karakoram Mountain ranges,” analyst Vikas Kapoor said in a 2020 article in the Daily Excelsior, a local daily published in Jammu and Kashmir.

Microchips require two critical raw materials: sand and freshwater, Mr. Kapoor noted. A 30-centimeter silicon wafer requires almost 10,000 liters (about 2,200 gallons) of fresh water for its manufacture.

China’s “water vision” and “quest for water” are crucial motivators behind its Belt and Road Initiative, Mr. Kapoor said. The Trans-Karakoram Tract has untapped resources to quench that thirst.

A group of researchers from Japan’s leading tech and geological research institutes discussed the region’s distinctive resources in a 2018 paper in the journal “Mountain Remote Sensing.” The glaciers support the livelihoods of around 130 million people, they said, calling the valley of “special interest for glacier-climatological studies.”

Notably, the researchers said, previous studies have observed “abnormal behaviors of the glaciers in this region compared to the global trend of glacier retreat.”

The researchers said: “Due to the special location of the region, the Shaksgam Valley is under the complex influences of both the Indian monsoon and dry arid climate systems. The area is rich in water resources due to many glaciers, which contribute significantly to the regional hydroelectric power generation by feeding the Yarkand River, a tributary of the Tarim River.”

The Yarkand River was recently dammed by the Altash Water Conservancy Project, also known as the Aritash Hydro-junction Dam. The huge project is far away from the Indian border, in southern Xinjiang, situated close to the township of Kosrap, which made headlines when its residents were relocated in 2018 due to the project, Mr. Lehberger noted.

In an email to The Epoch Times, Mr. Lehberger described the “huge dam,” with a height of 165 meters (about 550 feet). “The Chinese have dubbed it the ‘Xinjiang 3-Gorges Dam’, because the Yarkand is dammed into huge lakes that extend for dozens of kilometers,” he said.

There is no serious mining activity in the Trans-Karakoram Tract itself, due its remote location and a breathtaking altitude that ranges from 14,000 to 18,000 feet above sea level.

The only publicly known mine was in the Raskam Valley, a few kilometers away from the confluence of the Raskam and Yarkand rivers, and it was closed in 2018, according to a report by Chinese state media Xinhua.

However, Mr. Pradhan said, the wider region surrounding the Trans-Karakoram Tract—which ranges from the northern area near Pakistan, to Xinjiang and the area claimed and administered by India—has a unique geology. Its natural resources include water rich glaciers, minerals, precious stones, metals, oil, and hydrocarbons. Whoever controls the region will control those abundant resources and tap the potential of this resource-rich land.