President-elect Donald Trump said NATO member Turkey will hold the “key to Syria,” where the ruling regime collapsed last week in the face of a rebel offensive supported by Ankara.
Addressing reporters on Dec. 16, Trump also said the rebel groups that captured Damascus—and most of the country—were “controlled by Turkey.”
“And that’s okay,” said Trump, who will return to the White House on Jan. 20, 2025, for his second presidential term.
Speaking to The Epoch Times, Omer Onhon, Ankara’s former ambassador to Damascus, partially agreed with Trump’s assessment, acknowledging that Turkey was now a “major actor in Syria.”
“But it’s a bit unfair to say Turkey holds ‘the key’ [to Syria],” said Onhon, who served as ambassador from 2009 to 2012, when Ankara severed diplomatic ties with the government of Syria’s then-president, Bashar al-Assad.
“That would imply that Turkey should assume responsibility for all that happens in Syria, both positive and negative,” he said. “And that cannot be the case.”
“The Turks are significant players ... in whatever the outcome in Syria is going to be,” Kirby said.
But according to Onhon, such assessments of Turkey’s role in post-Assad Syria “should not be exaggerated.”
Rehabilitation of the war-torn country, with which Turkey shares a 566-mile-long border, will be an “international effort,” Onhon said.
‘Unfriendly Takeover’
Assad’s government abruptly collapsed on Dec. 8 after heavily armed rebel fighters overran Damascus, along with other key cities in northwestern Syria.The lightning offensive originated in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province, which, for years, was controlled by armed anti-Assad groups supported by Turkey.
The offensive was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an internationally designated terrorist group, which now reportedly controls most of Syria.
In his recent remarks, Trump said that Turkey, by supporting the rebels, “did an unfriendly takeover [of Syria] without a lot of lives being lost.”
Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s foreign minister, took issue with Trump’s remarks, calling it a “grave mistake” to characterize events in Syria as a takeover by Turkey.
“If there is any takeover, it’s [by] the will of the Syrian people.”
He rejected claims that Turkey sought domination in Syria.
Speaking earlier this week, Fidan also sought to downplay Ankara’s role in coordinating the rebel offensive that ultimately toppled Assad.
Nevertheless, according to Onhon, the offensive—which captured Damascus in less than two weeks—was most likely prepared well in advance.
“That kind of operation doesn’t happen overnight,” he said.
“If you look at the [military] formations, the uniforms, the discipline—they were obviously training and preparing for something.”
Onhon also asserted that “all major actors in the region”—he did not say which ones—had played “some part” in the operation.
“But in what way exactly, of course, I don’t know,” he said.
HTS in Control
On Dec. 10, HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly known as Mohammed al-Golani) appointed Mohammed al-Bashir to lead Syria’s caretaker government until March 1, 2025.A self-styled “technocrat,” al-Bashir led an HTS-backed Syrian government-in-exile in Idlib in the years leading up to Assad’s abrupt departure.
Previously called the Nusra Front, HTS is an ideological offshoot of al-Qaeda.
This has raised fears that the group may try to impose its arch-conservative worldview on Syria, which has long been known for its ethnic and religious diversity.
“Syria is a multiethnic, multi-religious country,” Onhon said.
“If a particular group—Salafists or jihadists—tries to impose its ideology on the rest of the population, this would negate the reason for Assad’s ouster.
“You would basically get rid of one autocratic system and replace it with another one.”
In a Dec. 18 statement, Pedersen also called for an “inclusive” political transition to include “the broadest range of Syrian society and Syrian parties.”
HTS, for its part, has sought to reassure critics, distancing itself from its earlier ties with extremist groups.
In remarks to the Italian press last week, al-Bashir pledged to ensure the rights of “all people and sects” in Syria.
“HTS is trying to give a moderate impression,” Onhon said.
“Words are nice. But whether they mean what they say will depend on their actions.”
He also warned against possible reprisals against the minority Alawite population by the country’s new HTS-backed leadership.
Syria’s Alawite community, from which the long-ruling Assad family hailed, is said to account for roughly 10 percent of the country’s total population.
“Alawites should not be punished or marginalized because of their sectarian identity,” Onhon said.
“Otherwise, we’ll see another insurgency—this time by the Alawites.”
Showdown With the YPG
The situation in Syria is complicated further by the presence of 900 U.S. troops in the country’s northeast, where the United States has kept a substantial military presence since 2015.The deployment is part of a U.S.-led coalition tasked with fighting the ISIS terrorist group, which seized much of Syria—and next-door Iraq—from 2014 to 2019.
U.S. troops in Syria work closely with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), an umbrella group of armed factions cobbled together in 2015 to fight ISIS.
The SDF is led by the Kurdish YPG, the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which both Turkey and the United States designate as a terrorist group.
Despite its terrorist associations, the YPG is considered a regional ally by Washington, which has often described it as a “reliable partner” in the fight against ISIS.
This partnership has led to friction with Turkey, which has fought a decades-long insurgency by the PKK that has killed thousands of people, both civilian and military.
Ankara also accuses the PKK—and its U.S.-backed affiliate—of seeking to carve out an autonomous enclave in Syria from which it could stage attacks on Turkey.
“The PKK’s occupation of Arab territories in Syria ... must come to an end,” Fidan said in his remarks on Dec. 15.
He said that the U.S.-backed YPG was “run by international terrorist fighters.”
“Although the Americans may market this situation ... differently, the reality is clear,” Fidan said.
Earlier this month, as rebel groups advanced on Damascus, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) launched a separate offensive in northern Syria, where it wrested significant territory from the YPG.
Last week, Washington brokered a cease-fire between Turkey and the U.S.-backed SDF, of which the YPG represents the main component.
“We don’t want to see any party take advantage of the current unstable situation [in Syria] to advance their own narrow interests,” he said.
According to Onhon, the YPG hopes to exploit the volatile situation in Syria to carve out an “autonomous administration” in the region.
Nevertheless, he said, the abrupt collapse of the Assad government has served to put the group in a “difficult position.”
“The U.S. doesn’t sound as supportive or enthusiastic [about the YPG] as it used to,” Onhon said.
“The [Turkish-backed] SNA is moving in on them and the Turkish army is there.”
In 2019, during his first term as president, Trump vowed to withdraw U.S. forces from Syria—a promise that ultimately failed to materialize.
At the time, Trump’s pledge drew fierce criticism from his political opponents, who accused him of seeking to “abandon” Washington’s Kurdish allies.
Israeli Strikes, Expansionism
Another challenge facing Turkey in Syria will be the aggressive approach adopted by Israel in the wake of the Assad government’s collapse.Shortly after the fall of Damascus, Israeli forces entered Syrian territory in the Golan Heights region, where they have since occupied areas of Mount Hermon.
Israeli officials said the move was a “temporary measure” meant to ensure Israel’s security but have given no indication of when those forces would be withdrawn.
Last week, Israel’s defense minister ordered troops to prepare to spend winter on Mount Hermon, which overlooks both the plain of Damascus and southern Lebanon.
Several countries—and the U.N.—have condemned the move as a violation of a 1974 Disengagement Agreement with Syria, with which Israel has fought three major conflicts since its creation in 1948.
Israeli warplanes have struck hundreds of targets throughout Syria, including some in Damascus, effectively destroying the country’s military infrastructure.
“Israel’s occupation of the green line in the Golan Heights region and its attacks on Damascus ... are the latest indicators of our justified concern,” he said in remarks cited by Turkey’s Bianet news agency.
He went on to call Israel an “aggressor state,” which, he claimed, was “dragging the region into great danger.”
According to Onhon, Ankara “is very unhappy with what Israel is doing now.”
“Israel is taking advantage of the situation, even though Ahmed al-Sharaa has said that HTS has no interest in conflict with Israel and poses no threat to it,” he said.
Israel’s military actions in Syria, Onhon said, “will only complicate the regional situation and won’t help Israel in the long run.”
“If you start dividing Syria into mini-states, this wouldn’t be very helpful for the country’s future,” he said.
“It could lead to another dangerous situation. Or even war.”
