The Challenges Ahead for High-Speed Rail Line Between Toronto and Quebec City

The first Paris–Berlin high-speed train stops at a platform at the Gare de l'Est station in Paris on Dec. 16, 2024. AP Photo/Aurelien Morissard

The federal government’s ambitious Toronto–Quebec high-speed rail project has a number of precedents to draw lessons from, many of them successful, but also many of them notoriously over budget and behind schedule. But the bigger question is whether the project will get built at all, given other infrastructure priorities a future government may have.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced last week that the rail network’s trains would travel up to 300 kilometres per hour, doubling the speed of Via Rail’s existing trains to cut travel times between Toronto and Montreal nearly in half.

The proposal is not a new idea. The desire for high-speed rail services in Canada dates back to the 1970s during Pierre Trudeau’s tenure as prime minister.

Although the country has yet to build a high-speed network, railroads have long been an economic driver in Canada. The introduction of steam-powered railways during the 19th century was a key part of the nation’s development. Railways in the 1800s were instrumental in the formation of Canada, linking regions and opening access to new markets while increasing demand for resources and fuelling technological progress.

The federal government is characterizing the Toronto–Quebec project as a driver of progress and economic growth. It says the high-speed network is expected to boost GDP by up to $35 billion annually while creating jobs both during and after construction and “unlocking enhanced productivity for decades to come.”

The project has a number of sizable hurdles to clear before it becomes a reality.

Two of the chief reasons such a network doesn’t already exist in Canada is the cost to finance such a major undertaking and the time it would take to see it through. In many cases, timelines for such projects extend past a government’s mandate, meaning a future government can easily alter or terminate the plans.

If the Liberals are ousted in this year’s federal election, the next government could choose to scrap the plan and allot the money to other nation-building projects, such as a cross-country oil and gas pipeline, which has seen renewed support in polling recently amid U.S. tariff threats.

Should the next government decide to endorse the high-speed train project, it will have several examples that can serve as lessons learned.

Successful High-Speed Rail Projects

Japan’s Shinkansen bullet train network is one of the earliest examples of a high-speed success story, with the first line constructed in 1964. It was originally created to connect distant Japanese regions to the country’s capital city, Tokyo, but now has nine lines across the country. The trains reach a top speed of 320 km/h.

France’s TGV represents another notable success story. The TGV is the country’s intercity high-speed rail service with commercial operating speeds of up to 320 km/h on the newer lines. The service’s first line between Paris and Lyon became active in 1981 but has since expanded to connect major cities across the country.

Spain’s AVE system came on the scene a decade later in 1992, connecting Madrid and Seville at speeds of up to 310 km/h, with stops at several other cities along the route.

Struggling High-Speed Rail Networks

Not all high-speed train projects have been successful, however, with many being notoriously over budget and behind schedule.

California’s publicly funded high-speed rail system has been subject to delays and cost overruns due mainly to snags in acquiring the land necessary for construction. The project connecting San Francisco to Los Angeles was authorized in 2008, and was supposed to be completed by 2020 at an estimated cost of US$33 billion.

However, cost estimates have since ballooned to $130 billion and the completion time extended by over a decade. Nearly $16 billion has been spent on the project so far.

An aerial image of construction of a high-speed rail project through the Central Valley in Fresno, California, on August 26, 2021. Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced last month that state authorities were finally ready to start laying track.

The publicly funded California High-Speed Rail is broken into two phases. The first will see a 795 kilometre line run from San Francisco to Los Angeles and Anaheim via the Central Valley. The proposed second leg would extend north to Sacramento and south to San Diego, for an additional 1,249 kilometres of track.

The United Kingdom’s HS2 line has faced similar problems. The high-speed railway, which has been in the works for more than a decade, has been hampered by environmental concerns, cost overruns, and local opposition.

Costs first estimated at 32 billion pounds in 2011 had skyrocketed to nearly 80 billion pounds by 2019. Construction is still underway and trains aren’t expected to be up and running anytime soon.

Building issues have also plagued Germany’s InterCity Express (ICE) trains. Construction commenced in 1973, but legal disputes, funding issues, and various other delays prevented the operation of trains on the initial line until 1991.

Several lines have been added over the years, but nine are still under construction and an additional seven remain in the planning phase.

Aside from the project taking far longer to complete than anticipated, ICE is also plagued by punctuality and reliability issues, according to a report from Germany’s public auditing body. Trains regularly run behind schedule, sometimes by as much as two hours, and costs are on the rise.

Major Transport Projects in Canada

Canada has had its own issues with transportation projects over the years, and the transit system in the country’s capital are a prime example of that.

The City of Ottawa’s Light Rail Transit (LRT) has been rife with problems since it began regular service in September of 2019.

The line has experienced electrical problems, faulty doors, tunnel leaks, and on-board computer failures while two separate derailments led to a two-month shutdown in 2021.

An Ottawa Light Rail Transit (OLRT) train travels along the tracks in Ottawa on June 22, 2022. Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press

The LRT has frequently had to be shut down for short-term maintenance due to weather-related issues such as cold temperatures, freezing rain, and a lightning strike.

A public inquiry into the LRT in 2022 found “persistent failures in leadership, partnership and communications in the construction and maintenance.”

Problems continue with the line today as ongoing delays have become a hallmark of the proposed extensions to the LRT. The Trillium Line, designed to connect the southern suburbs and the airport to the downtown area, opened at the beginning of 2025, roughly two years behind its original timeline.

Calgary’s Green Line LRT has also been fraught with problems. The LRT has been in the works for several years but the ballooning cost of the project, delays due to design changes, and the impact it would have on traffic flow during construction have played a role in its moving ahead.

Alberta Transportation Minister Devin Dreeshen sent a letter to Calgary Mayor Jyoti Gondek last fall describing the original plan for a tunnel LRT as a “multi-billion dollar boondoggle” and said Alberta would not support it.

A report commissioned by the province proposed an elevated Green Line in the city’s downtown and Beltline areas, an option the province estimated could be up to $1 billion cheaper than a tunnel. However, the proposal has raised concerns from businesses and residents alike about its potential negative effect on property values as well as the city’s aesthetics.

Toronto–Quebec City Line

Ottawa has completed the first phase of the Toronto–Quebec City network project: choosing the winning bidder from a pool of three competing consortia.

Minister of Transport Anita Anand said Cadence had the winning bid, a consortium that includes CDPQ Infra, SYSTRA Canada, Keolis Canada, and AtkinsRéalis, formerly known as SNC-Lavalin.

The rail project will be overseen by the Crown corporation Alto, previously known as VIA HFR.

The second phase of the project will see the track’s design, route alignment, station placement, and regulatory work completed. Indigenous consultations will also be held.

Anand has previously described rail as a key component to Canada’s productivity. She said it would “improve efficiency,” lower carbon emissions, and allow for “more housing to be built on these rail lines.”