An apparent decision by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to end its decades-long armed insurgency against Turkey could—if implemented—have far-reaching effects for the region, Turkish experts say.
“For the first time, the leader of the PKK has called on the group to renounce its longstanding demand for [Kurdish] autonomy in the region,” Oytun Orhan, a Turkish Middle East analyst, told The Epoch Times.
“He has also renounced the use of violence as a means of achieving the group’s objectives,” added Orhan, who specializes in the Levant region at Ankara’s Center for Middle Eastern Studies.
Late last month, Abdullah Ocalan, the PKK’s long-imprisoned leader, issued a widely anticipated statement calling on PKK militants to lay down their arms.
Ayhan Doganer, a former Turkish diplomat who previously served in both Syria and Lebanon, said Ocalan’s call had created a “sense of cautious optimism.”
Doganer told The Epoch Times that the nascent peace process “is supported by all [Turkish] political parties and civil society organizations.”
Since the mid-1980s, Ocalan’s PKK has waged a violent insurgency against the Turkish state, carrying out numerous attacks on both civilian and military targets.
Ankara, along with Brussels and Washington, has long regarded the PKK as a terrorist group.
On March 1, the PKK leadership, which is based in northern Iraq’s Kandil Mountain region, responded positively to Ocalan’s call to disarm.
The historic call to end the insurgency could “only be realized” under Ocalan’s “practical leadership,” it added.
“There are multiple actors on the PKK side,” said Doganer, a senior analyst at the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies.
Referring to the PKK’s Iraq-based leadership, he added: “The most important actor is Kandil, and Kandil has said ‘yes’ [to Ocalan’s call].”
“A marginal group within the PKK might still provoke disturbances,” Doganer said. “But in 2025, it is not possible for the PKK to continue its struggle with the same founding philosophy.”
‘Historic Step’
Ocalan, 75, founded the PKK in 1978 with the stated aim of establishing a Kurdish state in the region. The group later moderated its stance, however, calling for Kurdish autonomy in southeastern Turkey.In 1999, Ocalan was captured by Turkish security forces and has since been held at an island prison near Istanbul.
Despite his lengthy imprisonment, he is still viewed as the PKK’s de facto leader.
According to Orhan, Ocalan wields considerable “influence and leverage” among those who support the Kurdish cause, including members of Turkey’s DEM Party.
“So his message will certainly have an effect,” Orhan said.
“But I think it’s too optimistic to believe that Ocalan’s call will lead to the full dissolution of the PKK and an end to its armed activities,” he added.
“Nevertheless, it will serve to create a clear distinction between those who still support armed struggle [against the Turkish state] and those who support a purely political approach.”
Ocalan’s call for the group to disarm has been welcomed by the United States, the European Union, and several Middle Eastern states, including Iraq and Iran.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan described the move as an opportunity to “take a historic step on the path to … tearing down the wall of terror.”
Devlet Bahceli, leader of Turkey’s Nationalist Movement Party and an Erdogan ally, hailed the PKK leadership’s positive response to Ocalan’s call.
“In such a critical environment … a historic window of opportunity has been opened for Turkey,” he said on March 1.
The next day, DEM Party Co-chairman Tuncer Bakirhan said the opportunity afforded by the development should not be “squandered.”
Shortly after Ocalan issued the call, Gulistan Kilic Kocyigit, deputy chairperson of the DEM Party’s parliamentary bloc, said the PKK’s disarmament should be accompanied by “democratization” on the part of the Turkish government.
“The government should … take steps for democratization now,” she told Reuters on Feb. 28. “This is our demand as citizens of this country.”
According to Orhan, Kurdish autonomy in the country’s southeast—or some kind of “federalist” system—remains “out of the question” for Turkey.
But Ankara is prepared to “ease pressure” on Kurdish political movements in Turkey “if they distance themselves from the PKK,” he said.
Regional Impact
The peace initiative began last October, when Bahceli, an implacable foe of the PKK, called on Ocalan to instruct his followers to lay down their arms.In return, he said, the authorities would consider releasing Ocalan.
A day after Bahceli made the proposal, PKK gunmen attacked the office of a Turkish defense firm in Ankara, leaving five people dead, along with the perpetrators.
Turkey responded with two days of airstrikes on PKK positions in northern Iraq.
It also struck PKK sites in northern Syria, where the YPG—the PKK’s Syrian offshoot—maintains a significant presence.
In recent years, NATO member Turkey has staged several offensives into northern Iraq with the aim of neutralizing the PKK.
It has also staged incursions into northern Syria, where Turkish forces continue to battle the YPG, which Ankara says is indistinguishable from the PKK.
Iraq and Syria both share borders with southeastern Turkey, which is home to a large Kurdish population.
Ankara accuses the PKK and YPG of seeking to carve out an autonomous enclave in the region from which they could potentially attack targets inside Turkey.
According to the Turkish Defense Ministry, cross-border military operations remain ongoing—in both countries—despite the PKK’s positive response to Ocalan’s call.
“A total of 26 terrorists have been neutralized in the past week, including in northern Iraq and Syria,” a ministry spokesman said on March 6.
Turkey’s armed forces will continue “search-and-sweep activities in the region” and “persist in the fight against terrorism … until not a single terrorist remains,” he added.
According to Doganer, Ankara “appears to be demanding [the PKK’s] unilateral disarmament.”
“However, the PKK will demand the release of Ocalan and other detainees,” he said. “A middle-ground formula will be found here.”
He added, “It is impossible for all sides to get exactly what they want.”
Orhan said the PKK had not yet definitely pledged to disarm.
“It has only declared a cease-fire,” he said.
“Militarily speaking, Turkey believes the PKK is already cornered,” he added. “So it isn’t interested in a unilateral ceasefire.”
Until the PKK lays down its arms, Orhan asserted, Turkey will “continue to maintain pressure” on the group.
Complex Dynamics in Syria
Complicating the situation, the YPG works closely with U.S. forces deployed in northeastern Syria, where it operates under the banner of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).The SDF was established in 2015 with the ostensible aim of helping U.S. forces in Syria—currently estimated at 2,000 troops—fight the ISIS terrorist group.
The SDF is armed, trained, and supported by Washington, which often describes it as a “reliable partner” in the fight against terrorism.
The partnership has caused deep-seated frictions with Ankara, which has repeatedly urged the United States to halt its support for the group.
On Feb. 27, Mazloum Abdi, commander of the SDF, welcomed Ocalan’s call for the PKK to disarm, saying the move would have positive consequences for the region.
He added, however, that Ocalan’s call applied only to the PKK—not the SDF—and was therefore “not related to us in Syria.”
His response contradicted assertions by Turkish officials, who say all Kurdish armed groups in the region—including the SDF—must lay down their arms.
According to Orhan, all such groups are viewed by Turkey as “different branches of the PKK.”
“Turkey regards the YPG and PKK as identical,” he said. “The YPG was founded by the PKK, and its commanders—including Abdi—are core PKK members.”
A Syrian Kurd, Abdi joined the PKK in 1990 and was a personal friend of Ocalan before the latter’s arrest by Turkish security forces in 1999.
“Ankara wants the PKK and all its affiliated organizations to lay down their arms,” Doganer said.
Along with the PKK, YPG, and SDF, Ankara views Syria’s Democratic Union Party, the Kurdistan Communities Union, and the Iran-based Kurdistan Free Life Party as “part of the same entity,” Doganer added.
