Australia is expected to face limited fallout from the U.S. tariff war compared to Canada, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter told a recent parliamentary inquiry that while the trade war is expected to slow global growth, Australia is far less exposed than its northern counterpart.
A recent analysis by Canada’s central bank–the Bank of Canada—found that a full-scale trade war with the U.S. could cause severe economic damage
“They simulated an estimate of some very substantial negative impacts on their economy– something akin to what they went through in COVID,” she said.
“We don’t think Australia is anywhere near that exposed. We wouldn’t expect that to play out here.
“We’re not as large a trading relationship with the U.S. as Canada, for example. So there is a negative impact in terms of GDP, but it’s in a relative sense, small here, which is obviously somewhat reassuring.”
The U.S. is Australia’s third-largest trading partner, with two-way trade ($98.7 billion) less than one-third of that of China ($325 billion) in 2023.
Economic Growth Expected to Take a Hit
RBA Governor Michele Bullock said that despite Hunter’s comments, the impact of the tariffs remained uncertain.“The bottom line is it’s definitely negative for growth, [but] the impact on inflation is less certain, and it does depend,” she said.
The RBA’s baseline forecast only accounts for U.S. tariffs on China and does not include other U.S. tariffs on different countries.
China’s Response Could Offset Damage
The Reserve Bank also expects that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will counteract U.S. tariffs by pumping money to support its economy.“We expect that [monetary stimulus] to offset the drag from tariffs. That will mean a different composition of growth in China relative to what would otherwise happen,” she told the Standing Committee on Economics.
“So they'll have a weaker net export position. They won’t be able to export as much.”
As the Australian economy is strongly connected with China’s, it is expected that the country will be affected by the tariff war.
However, Hunter said the CCP’s fiscal and monetary stimulus would limit the knock-on negative impacts for Australia.
Currency Fluctuations Could Help—Or Hurt
In addition, the assistant governor stated that Australia’s floating exchange rate could also play a role in reducing the impacts.“We obviously have a floating exchange rate that acts as a substantial buffer on some of those negative demand shocks that can come through from overseas,” she said.
However, the assistant governor pointed out that the floating exchange rate could have a double-edged effect on domestic inflation.
“If there’s a downturn in the global economy, activity starts to weaken. Generally, the exchange rate will depreciate, and that supports our net exports,” he said.
“It provides a bit of a boost to our exporters, [and] makes things a bit more expensive to bring in. So we perhaps import a bit less, and we choose to consume locally.
“Because of these financial market impacts, the sort of that coming through in terms of a positive impulse for inflation.”
Nevertheless, Hunter added that weaker domestic activities and the impact of trade dispersion resulting from a depreciated currency could cause inflation to slow down.
“We’re not really sure what the net impact on inflation would be. It’s very, very hard to tell,” she said.
