Taiwan a Model for Post-Communist China: Commentator

Taiwan's first locally built submarine "Narwhal" is seen during an unveiling ceremony at the CSBC Corp. shipbuilding company in Kaohsiung on Sept. 28, 2023. Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images

Taiwan’s democratic system is the best way forward for a post-communist China, argues a popular online commentator, who himself is a communist “princeling.”

“Taiwan has been democratised for about 30 years after Lee Teng-hui became the first president of the Republic of China,” Wu Jianmin, a China affairs commentator told an event in Sydney, Australia on Nov. 12, 2023.

“After 30 years, Taiwan’s democracy is now quite mature,” he said. “Among democracies worldwide, Taiwan’s contribution and its implementation of the system is now among the best in the world, not much worse than that of the United States.”

Mr. Wu was a student leader in Nanjing City in the Tiananmen Square protest (June 4).

In 1990, he was arrested by Chinese Communist Party (CCP) authorities and convicted as the supposed “principal criminal in organising and leading a counterrevolutionary group.”

He was sentenced to ten years in prison. He was later released in 1997 after the Bush administration’s Secretary of State James Baker visited China for the first time after the June 4 movement.

Mr. Wu went into exile to the United States in 2015.

A “red second generation” himself, Mr. Wu’s father is a military doctor who graduated from Second Military Medical University, a veteran of the CCP’s Second Field Army, and a retired cadre at the division level in the 1980s.

Taiwan Proves China Can Practice Democracy

Mr. Wu said the “brightest and most ideal path” for post-communist China was to emulate the democratic system in the Republic of China (Taiwan).

He said it proved that, first of all, “Chinese people can practice democracy,” dispelling a common myth propagated by the communist regime that Chinese cannot practice democracy.

The commentator also said the Taiwanese did not initially have a clear understanding of such a system, yet in the past 16 years under Presidents Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen, the self-ruled island has completely and smoothly transitioned to a democratic society.

“Taiwan is now close to Western developed societies,” he said.

“It’s only that Taiwan’s GDP now has not yet fully reached the indicator of Western democratic developed societies, but whether its democratic construction, and economic construction.

“In other words, Taiwan has a ready-made democratic system and template. What’s more, they are people connected by blood with mainland Chinese, who share the same ancestors and the same culture.”

Power Struggle Likely Post-Xi

The China expert also said a post-communist China may not be far away, considering the health of current leader Xi Jinping, who is 70 and showing signs of illness in recent years.

“He did not dare to set up an heir, because all dictators treat this issue as taboo, since heirs are the ones who eventually seize power,” Mr. Wu said.

He said there were a few likely successors to Xi, pointing to CCP Premier Li Qiang, the second-highest member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau, or Cai Qi, the fifth-highest ranking member of the Committee.

The Central Guard regiment are all commanded by Cai Qi.

“Zhang Youxia [Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission] may also want the position with the troops he controls,” Mr. Wu said.

“In the end, whether they are members of the Politburo Standing Committee or Politburo members, including senior CCP founding members, they will all speak out,” he said.

China affairs commentator Wu Jianmin‘s fan meeting in Sydney, Australia on Nov. 12, 2023. Credit to Federation for a democratic China

“When the time comes and no one can stabilise this regime, and no one obeys anyone else, [they] may listen to the people. This possibility exists,” he said, adding that the people needed to revolt to make their voices heard.

“Be it June 4 movement in 1989, or the White Paper revolution we have seen in the past two years ... if something like that breaks out across the country, and people rush to the streets, this regime will probably collapse at that time.”