“As Chancellor, I put in place the funding to support the development of four CCUS clusters by 2030, which I believe will protect vital industries and jobs in the UK.”
While Sunak brings the same wide-eyed optimism to the table as many other green proponents, some analysts think rigid renewables goals aren’t realistic.
“The policy of ‘net zero by 2050’ ... is a myth and simply is not going to happen—no matter what policy changes are made immediately,” geopolitical analyst and president of Scarab Rising, Inc., Irina Tsukerman, told The Epoch Times.
Tsukerman explained that for Sunak to achieve a true net zero 2050 goal, irrational and extreme economic shifts would need to happen.
“For instance, all plastic products would have to be banned completely. Whenever anything carbon based is utilized, some level of emission can be expected,” she said, adding, “This is even more unrealistic than the ‘zero COVID’ policy in China.”
She noted that committing to overly optimistic energy goals is great for generating votes, but considers it “highly irresponsible.” Tsukerman thinks it is setting the country up for failure. Further, she said foundering energy policies just “kicks the can down the road” to future leaders who inevitably have to either lower expectations or admit defeat.
Sunak’s jump on the green energy bandwagon in recent months has some scratching their heads. That’s because, historically, his record shows he’s voted against several important policies addressing the popular notion of climate change.
In 2016, he voted against lowering the maximum rate of CO2 emissions in new homes and also opposed the establishment of a formal decarbonization target for Britain. Sunak took a similar stance in 2020 by voting against a proposal to eliminate nearly all transportation emissions by 2030.
Moreover, he originally opposed a windfall tax on gas and oil companies. During an interview with the BBC, Sunak said he was not “naturally attracted” to the concept of a windfall tax, but would be “pragmatic” about instigating one.
He also wrote an article for The Telegraph in August that argued being pro-farmer meant restricting ground-based solar development on UK agricultural land.
Energy Independence
Part of Sunak’s long-term plan is to make the UK completely energy independent by 2045, as he told UK media.“I will lead a national effort to increase our domestic energy supply and cut our energy waste. We need more offshore wind, more rooftop solar, and more nuclear.”
Central to this plan will be the creation of a new energy security task force that will report directly to the prime minister.
Learning from the harsh lessons imparted by Russia’s war in Ukraine, Sunak has said he aspires to increase North Sea gas production and strengthen domestic gas storage. Reform for regulations and licensing are also reportedly in the works so investors can build and scale up offshore wind, solar, and nuclear facilities at a faster pace.
Yet beyond the opening moves, some analysts don’t see how Sunak can make the dramatic shift in spending that would be necessary to dig Britain out of recession and move forward with such lofty energy goals.
“There is no indication how Sunak ... will switch from being the free-spending, debt-incurring figure who poured vast sums of cash into the British economy ... to a prime minister who now has to find savings after savings, or impose tax after tax, in order to balance the books,” nonresident senior fellow with the Global Energy Center, John M. Roberts, told the Atlantic Council.
And that’s because big goals tend to cost big money.
In May, the former chancellor announced a 15 billion pound spending package to help struggling residents with the increased cost of living brought on by inflation.
Long-Term Green Collaboration Unlikely
When it comes to close allies like the United States or the European Union, Tsukerman believes a lasting collaboration on the green agenda is unlikely.“Sunak will likely use this goal to push for greater cooperation and more cordial diplomatic relations with European and U.S. leaderships. However, it will likely backfire in the long run,” she said.
With the U.S. presidency possibly flipping back to Republican in 2024, Tsukerman says no conservative will support Sunak’s green energy goals. Further, she noted he’s unlikely to receive any support from Eastern or Central European countries since, individually, they have other priorities.
She also points to Europe’s existing policies toward energy being what landed the entire region in a hotbed of inflation.
“Continuing to pretend that similar types of [green] policies are either possible or desirable is not only sheer lunacy but leads to the popular distrust of governments,” Tsukerman said.
Energy policies aside, most analysts agree the UK will remain a reliable NATO ally.
“We can expect the same government support for Ukraine as under [Liz] Truss and [Boris] Johnson, though it is less predictable how the former chancellor will address the dark money problems London still faces,” analyst for the Europe Center, Livia Godaert, said in an Atlantic Council brief.
