The Sudanese government on Jan. 4, recalled its envoy to Nairobi, citing Kenyan President William Ruto’s decision to welcome the leader of the paramilitary group Rapid Support Force (RSF).
RSF leader Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo was reportedly treated to a kingly experience during a tour of Kenya on Jan. 3. This move has unsettled the region and raised questions about the future integration of East Africa.
Dagalo was in Nairobi as part of a tour of several African countries since his group started fighting with the military government of Sudan. He has visited Uganda, Ethiopia, and Djibouti, and is headed to South Africa to meet President Cyril Ramaphosa after he visits Kenya.
When he arrived at Kenya’s Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA), he was welcomed by internal security cabinet secretary Kithure Kindiki, spy agency chief Nordin Haji, and other high-ranking government officials. While there, Dagalo was greeted at the presidential pavilion with a red carpet and a troupe of dancers performing in the glare of cameras.
Once at the State House, President Ruto embraced him with a friendly hug and pat, calling him “my good brother” and welcoming him to his “other home.”
These actions by Kenya rattled Khartoum.
A statement carried by Sudan’s state news agency SUNA quoted the country’s acting foreign minister, Ali al-Sadiq, saying that the ambassador had been recalled for “consultations in protest of the official reception organized by the Kenyan government for the leader of the rebel militia.” He added that the consultations would “cover all possibilities for the outcome of Sudan’s relations with Kenya.”
Kenya’s action complicates regional integration, as the country, considered the East African regional hegemon, sets the pace for other ‘rival’ countries in the region seeking dominance.
Dr. Edgar Githua, a professor of international relations at the United States International University Africa, says that the issue complicates regional integration.
“From a regional perspective, which is the East African Community (EAC), it means that relations within the community are going to become weaker and fragmented because when you have countries that belong to the same organization who do not see eye to eye or who are not on good terms, it complicates the regional integration question. Remember, DRC [Democratic Republic of the Congo] is the newest member of the EAC other than Somalia.
“And so when it already has problems with Kenya and Tanzania, and it has not yet built the roots, or strong networks within the region it means it might even start reconsidering its association or its partnership or its membership within that organization,” Dr. Githua explains.
He adds that Dagalo’s visit to Kenya will complicate the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) effort to bring about peace between Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Dagalo in Sudan. The reason is that mediators or those chosen to help negotiate peace must appear unbiased, and the conflicting parties must be comfortable with the individuals sent.
Political Instability
Sudan has been in a state of political instability since the ouster of President Omar al-Bashir in 2019. Following his departure, the military took power under Ahmed Awad Ibn Auf, who became the chairman of the Transitional Military Council.However, the agreement to have a powersharing deal between the military and the civilians was abruptly cut off in October 2021 after a coup that was necessitated by mistrust between the civilians and the military officials.
During the 2021 coup, the military, backed by the paramilitary group led by Dagalo, took over power. The alliance lasted until April 2023, when they started fighting due to disagreements over transitioning to an internationally recognized leadership style.
The disagreement between the two leaders has resulted in heightened tensions, prompting talks between the rivals in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. However, these discussions, led by Saudi, U.S., and African mediators, failed to achieve a ceasefire between the warring factions, leading to the suspension of the talks.
However, on Nov.7, 2023, the two parties agreed to measures that would facilitate humanitarian access to civilians and implement confidence-building steps. These steps include arresting former regime leaders who escaped from prison at the start of the war and joined the army.
As the situation in Sudan raises questions about regional integration, it places Kenya at the center of the turmoil, given its major role in ensuring the stability of the EAC. The role comes with several challenges, including those faced with Tanzania. Both countries view each other as economic rivals, competing for trade with other landlocked members due to their advantageous positions on the East African coast.
This became evident in Uganda’s recent decision to sue Kenya at the East African Court of Justice over issues related to the importation and transportation of oil from the Mombasa port through Kenya to Uganda
When Kenya launched a new military alliance with the Congo in its capital, Nairobi, it rattled the DRC. In response, the DRC recalled its ambassadors to Nairobi and Dodoma, further undermining East African integration.
Dr. Githua says all of these factors mean that the unity of IGAD, an international organization comprising eight member states within the Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes region, is at stake.
Ready for Peace
While in South Africa on Jan. 4, Dagalo announced that he was ready for peace with the military leader and had mentioned that in talks with President Ramaphosa.“I provided a comprehensive explanation to his excellency [Ramaphosa] about the reasons for the outbreak of war in the country, the parties behind it that support its continuation, the extent of the destruction and deliberate sabotage that affected basic infrastructure, and the killing and displacement of thousands of civilian victims due to aircraft bombing,” Dagalo said.
He also praised the country’s ability to lead peace talks across the continent saying: “I emphasized the great position that South Africa enjoys in the middle of the African continent and the efforts expected from his excellency to play a role that contributes to helping our people overcome this crisis to achieve security, stability, and sustainable peace in the country.”
General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan immediately quelled these sentiments by issuing a statement. He expressed a firm rejection of reconciliation with the RSF and dismissed the latest peace efforts. Burhan accused RSF members of committing war crimes across the country and expressed his intention to arm civilians under army command for self-defense against the RSF.
While referring to the recent foreign support for the RSF leader, Gen. Burhan said: “Any hospitality extended to the leadership of this rebel group constitutes complicity in their crimes and collaboration in the killing and destruction of the Sudanese people. Moreover, hosting any party hostile to the state and its government is considered overt hostility, and the state has the right to take measures to safeguard its sovereignty and security. I urge nations harboring their (RSF) leader to cease interfering in Sudan’s affairs.”
On Jan. 5, Dagalo left South Africa for Rwanda, where he was welcomed by President Paul Kagame. He expressed his satisfaction with meeting with the president on X (formerly Twitter).
“Today, I was honored to meet with His Excellency the President of the Republic of Rwanda Paul Kagame as part of our meetings with a number of leaders of brotherly and friendly countries. I discussed with His Excellency the exceptional conditions that Sudan is witnessing due to the war and the resulting negative effects that have doubled the suffering of our people,” he said.
However, Dr. Githua says that nothing will stop sovereign countries from taking steps in their best interest.
“Countries will always act in their own best interest, regardless of whose toes they are stepping on. So, if Kenya feels that talking to Dagalo is serving its interest, Kenya will talk to Dagalo regardless of what Gen. Burhan says. Sometimes the repercussions are usually dire, but countries will always pursue state interests,” he concluded.
