Canada’s merchandise trade deficit with the world narrowed to $323 million in November as growth in exports outpaced imports, Statistics Canada said Tuesday.
The result compared with a revised deficit of $544 million in October.
However, TD economist Marc Ercolao said the outlook for Canadian trade this year is cloudy with Donald Trump set to take office later this month and still threatening 25 percent tariffs on Canadian imports.
“Our base case is that Canada largely avoids a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan, given our energy-heavy relationship with the U.S.—though we acknowledge that any tariff levied against Canada has negative consequences for economic growth,” Ercolao wrote.
Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S. was $8.2 billion in November compared with a surplus of $6.6 billion in October as exports to the U.S. rose 6.8 percent and imports increased 4.1 percent.
Overall, Statistics Canada said Canadian exports rose 2.2 percent to $66.1 billion in November as exports of consumer goods rose 4.4 percent, boosted by an 11.9 percent increase in exports of pharmaceutical products.
Metal and non-metallic mineral product exports increased 3.8 percent, helped by an increase in unwrought gold, while higher prices for crude oil helped exports of energy products rise 2.1 percent.
Meanwhile, total imports rose 1.8 percent to $66.4 billion in November, helped by a 3.8 percent increase in consumer goods and a 4.3 percent rise in industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products.
Ercolao noted that merchandise exports in volume terms rose 0.5 percent, while import volumes were up 0.8 percent.
“With two months of Q4 trade data in the cards, it looks like trade will be a slight tailwind to Q4 GDP growth,” Ercolao wrote in a report.
In a separate report, Statistics Canada said the country’s monthly international trade in services deficit was essentially unchanged in November at $300 million as exports of services fell 0.2 percent to $18.2 billion and imports of services edged down 0.1 percent to $18.5 billion.
When international trade in goods and services are combined, Statistics Canada said the country’s total trade deficit with the world was $642 million in November compared with $850 million in October.
