Terror-related deaths in Africa reached a record high in 2023 on the back of the withdrawal of thousands of French troops from areas where groups affiliated with the terrorist group ISIS are embedded, according to new research.
The Center for Strategic Studies (CSS) at Fort McNair in Washington said that fatalities linked to militant Islamic violence increased by 20 percent last year, to 23,322 from 19,412 in 2022.
This was nearly a doubling in deaths since 2021.
Eighty-three percent of the deaths were in the Sahel, the arid semidesert containing Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, where military juntas forced French troops to leave in 2023, and in Somalia, large parts of which are controlled by the al-Shabaab terror group.
The statistics sparked a warning from a leading terrorism expert.
“The evolution of terrorism in sub-Saharan Africa could pose a threat to homeland security (in the United States) and is a growing danger to U.S. interests abroad,” said Donna Charles, who monitors Islamic insurgencies in West Africa and the Sahel for the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington.
Willem Els, of South Africa’s Institute for Security Studies, told The Epoch Times that the CSS’s new numbers had “cemented” Africa’s status as “the world’s terrorism hotbed.”
“From the statistics, we can see that even though al-Qaeda and ISIS are based across the world, most deaths connected to these organizations are happening in Africa,” the former colonel in the South African police’s counterterrorism section said.
“This tells us that African countries lack the capacity, the expertise, and the political willpower necessary to successfully combat terror groups.”
Ms. Charles, a former U.S. Air Force officer who served in national security for 20 years, told The Epoch Times that she was particularly concerned about al-Shabaab, which she said had evolved over two decades into “the wealthiest, largest, and most lethal al-Qaeda affiliate” in the world.
“Al-Shabaab’s capabilities and tactics in asymmetrical warfare have advanced substantially, and almost proportionately to the group’s capacity to raise funds and collect revenues from a range of illicit activities and ostensibly legitimate businesses,” she said.
The CSS said there was a 22 percent increase in terrorism-related fatalities in Somalia in 2023, reaching a record high of 7,643 deaths. This represents a tripling of fatalities since 2020. The CSS attributed virtually all of this violence to al-Shabaab.
Al-Shabaab (or “The Youth”), a Sunni Islamic group formed in the early 2000s following a protracted civil war, has the stated objective of overthrowing the Western-backed government in Mogadishu and establishing an Islamic caliphate.
On Feb. 10, al-Shabaab fighters attacked a military base in Mogadishu, killing four Emirati officers and one Bahraini soldier who were participating in a training exercise in the capital.
‘Victim of Western Persecution’
U.S. forces have launched hundreds of airstrikes against al-Shabaab since the early 2000s, killing several of its leaders. But Mr. Els said this seemed to be “strengthening the terrorist resolve” and was allowing the group to claim that it is a “victim of Western persecution” in its drive to swell its ranks.“As AU forces, with U.S. support, have driven al-Shabaab out of strongholds, it’s given the group less territory to govern and more time to focus on external operations,” Ms. Charles said.
“The group endures because it’s so pervasive in Somalia and by its capacity to penetrate almost all aspects of Somali society. These include financial services, commerce, and telecommunications.
“The fact that al-Shabaab has the ability to deploy operatives beyond the continent to obtain flight training speaks to the strategic patience of its leadership, planners, and operatives.”
Ms. Charles was referring to an al-Shabaab plot uncovered by Filipino authorities in 2019.
Cholo Abdi Abdullah was subsequently extradited to the United States, and the Department of Justice charged him with six counts of terrorism-related offenses “arising from his activities as an operative of the foreign terrorist organization al-Shabaab, including conspiring to hijack aircraft in order to conduct a 9/11-style attack in the United States.”
Mr. Abdullah remains in U.S. custody.
“There’ve been reports of threats and plots hatched by al-Shabaab against the U.S. homeland over the last decade, but this plot was one of the first indicators that al-Shabaab has both the capability and intent to strike targets outside of East Africa, and likely inside the United States based on evidence found at the crime scene and elsewhere,” Ms. Charles said.
Mr. Els said that the “near constant advancement of information technology,” including social media, means that it’s becoming increasingly complex to track terrorists, and increasingly easy for terrorists to spread their messages and propaganda.
“Most terrorist groups operating in Africa have been using social media to radicalize and recruit for a very long time,” he said.
‘In a League of Its Own’
“Al-Shabaab is in a league of its own when we consider its long history of using social media and other tools to radicalize and recruit youth from the United States, the United Kingdom, and elsewhere,” she said.“Some traveled to Somalia, or attempted to travel there, to fight alongside and work on behalf of al-Shabaab or al-Qaeda in East Africa.”
According to the CSS report, the 11,643 fatalities linked to militant Islamic violence in the Sahel in 2023 is a nearly threefold increase from the levels seen in 2020, when the first military coup in the region occurred.
“Ironically, the leaders of every coup that happened in the Sahel between 2020 and 2023 used deteriorating security as a result of terrorist attacks as an excuse to oust governments,” Mr. Els said. “But here we sit, and there’s more terrorism than ever before.”
He attributed most of the deaths in the Sahel last year to the Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) coalition. He said the situation was particularly bad in Burkina Faso, where the CSS put the 2023 death toll from terrorist attacks at 7,762.
“This is more than double the number of deaths recorded in 2022. JNIM now controls more than half the country,” Mr. Els said.
Mr. Voronkov said ISIS was taking advantage of the lack of counterterrorism operations, especially in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, and there were “growing concerns” about ISIS and al-Qaeda launching major campaigns in the Congo Basin.
Ms. Charles warned that African terrorist groups had “demonstrated the ability to evolve and improve their tactics, techniques, procedures, and targets,” and that ISIS, in particular, was now well-established in South Africa, the continent’s most developed country.
She said it was imperative for the United States to “continue to map and mitigate risks and vulnerabilities in the region that unnecessarily expose the homeland to terrorism threats emanating from the African continent.”
She added that U.S. security agencies should constantly and rigorously assess the vulnerability of the country’s land and air borders.
At least 11 African countries have a “last point of departure air route to the United States,” she said.
She added, “This data point suggests that a terrorist actor in Africa capable and intent on attacking the United States could, after clearing several layers of screening and security protocols, board a flight bound for the United States and use various means to attack the homeland, either before landing or upon doing so.”
She referred to the case of the “Underwear Bomber,” Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab.
The Nigerian national, an al-Qaeda operative, was sentenced in 2012 to life in prison for his role in the attempted Christmas Day 2009 bombing of Northwest Airlines Flight 253.
“While Umar’s flight to Michigan was indirect from Yemen through Europe, this example and others show how terrorists exploit vulnerabilities. They only need to be lucky once to achieve their objectives,” Ms. Charles said.
