Solomon Islands to Get New Prime Minister as Pro-China Leader Exits Race

Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare addresses the 78th U.N. General Assembly in New York City on Sept. 22, 2023. Leonardo Munoz/AFP via Getty Images

The pro-China prime minister of the Solomon Islands, Manasseh Sogavare, has withdrawn from the race to lead the next government following a decision by opposition parties to form a coalition aimed at taking power.

Mr. Sogavare’s ruling Ownership, Unity, and Responsibility Party, also known as the OUR Party, won 15 parliamentary seats in the April 17 elections, less than the 26-seat majority needed to form a government. The opposition CARE coalition—which consists of the Solomon Islands Democratic Party (SIDP), UMI 4 Change, and the Democratic Alliance Party—picked up 13 seats.

On April 29, Mr. Sogavare held a press conference in Honiara, the Solomon Islands capital, to announce the decision. Solomon Islands Foreign Minister Jeremiah Manele will run for the prime ministership on behalf of a coalition led by the OUR Party.

The CARE coalition inked an agreement with the Solomon Islands United Party (SIUP) on April 29 to form a coalition government with 20 seats. On April 30, the coalition announced that Matthew Wale, the SIDP’s leader, will be its candidate for the position of prime minister.

The 50 newly elected lawmakers are scheduled to vote on May 2 for a new prime minister.

China

The outcome of the May 2 vote will have geopolitical implications, particularly for the United States and Australia, since the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has significantly increased its influence in the Pacific nation during Mr. Sogavare’s tenure in office.

In 2019, Mr. Sogavare switched diplomatic relations from Taiwan to China, prompting concerns from U.S. officials about China’s effort to undermine regional stability. In 2022, Mr. Sogavare signed a security agreement with China. At the time, the U.S. Institute of Peace published an article on its website, expressing concerns about the implications of the bilateral pact.

“The pact grants permission for the Chinese navy to dock and replenish in the Solomon Islands, laying the groundwork for a facility that could be expanded over time,“ the article reads. ”China likely aims to establish a permanent military presence, but will do so in a way that allows the two sides to deny that it is a base.”

In 2023, Mr. Sogavare inked a separate deal on police cooperation with China as part of an upgrade of their bilateral ties. In the same year, the Solomon Islands awarded a multimillion-dollar contract to a Chinese state-owned company to upgrade an international port in Honiara.

On April 30, Shailendra Singh, an associate professor of journalism at the University of the South Pacific in Fiji, took to social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, to warn that “China will simply start courting whichever new government comes in with renewed vigor” in response to Mr. Sogavare’s decision to not run in the prime ministerial race.

Patricia O’Brien, a faculty member in Asian Studies at Georgetown University and a contributing author to The Diplomat, published an article on April 30 discussing Mr. Sogavare’s decision. She wrote that Mr. Sogavare “may rise up the leadership ranks again,” and if so, Beijing “will no doubt be happy to aid him.”

In 2019, Mr. Sogavare defeated Mr. Wale to become prime minister. Previously, he served as prime minister three different times: from 2000 to 2001, 2006 to 2007, and 2014 to 2017.

“The coming days will show how much Sogavare’s agenda has united his political opponents, who are currently forming complicated coalitions to get the requisite numbers to form [a] government,“ Ms. O'Brien wrote. ”If they manage to achieve this, the world will be watching to see how far a new government will go to temper Sogavare’s stance as a champion of Beijing.”

Manele Versus Wale

The nominations for prime minister closed at 4 p.m. local time on April 30, and it appears that the race is a matchup between two candidates, Mr. Manele and Mr. Wale.

Mr. Manele has promised to continue Mr. Sogavare’s pro-China policies, according to Al Jazeera.

As foreign minister, Mr. Manele also supported Mr. Sogavare’s 2019 decision to establish diplomatic ties with China. According to a press release on his meeting with a Chinese official in October 2023, Mr. Manele said the diplomatic switch was the “right decision” and that it put his country “on the right side of history.”

The CCP has cited history in its propaganda asserting a territorial claim over Taiwan, even though China’s communist regime has never ruled the island. Currently, Taiwan is a de facto independent nation with its own democratically elected government, currency, and military.

On April 30, SIUP leader Peter Kenilorea Jr. issued a statement endorsing Mr. Wale’s candidacy for prime minister.

“I throw my full support behind his candidature for PM,” Mr. Kenilorea said. “The country had spoken loud and clear about the need for change by voting 25 new MPs into Parliament, a show of the great hunger for change.”

Months before the 2022 security deal between the Solomon Islands and China was officially announced, Mr. Wale wrote an article published by The Guardian. In his article, he warned that the security agreement would be “counterproductive to the security interests of Solomon Islands and the Pacific Islands region.”

“There are several reasons it poses serious challenges,” Mr. Wale wrote. “When it comes to national security, they will affect how and what training is conducted, how arrests are done, the manner in which courts function, the extent to which individual rights can be expressed, and ultimately, how the rule of law is perceived.”

Reuters contributed to this report.