Soaring Fertilizer Prices Following Russia–Ukraine War Could Lead to One Million More Deaths: Study

A local farm worker unloads Ukrainian-made fertilizer from a truck to use on a wheat field near the village of Yakovlivka after it was hit by an aerial bombardment outside Kharkiv, Ukraine, on April 5, 2022. Thomas Peter/Reuters

Rising fertilizer prices due to the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war could end up killing a million people globally, act as a major driver of food inflation this year, while affecting most of the poorer segments of society.

“This could be the end of an era of cheap food. While almost everyone will feel the effects of that on their weekly shop, it’s the poorest people in society, who may already struggle to afford enough healthy food, who will be hit hardest,” said Dr. Peter Alexander, citing a study led by the University of Edinburgh’s School of GeoSciences. “While fertilizer prices are coming down from the peaks of earlier this year, they remain high, and this may still feed through to continued high food price inflation in 2023.”

Using computer model simulations, the research team estimated that the combined effect of elevated fertilizer prices, rising energy costs, and export restrictions could push up food costs by 81 percent in 2023 when compared to 2021. Instead of export restrictions, it is fertilizer prices that would have the biggest effect on food prices, the researchers found.

If fertilizer prices continue to remain high, the study estimates that there could be up to one million additional deaths and 100 million more people becoming undernourished. The largest increase in such deaths are predicted to occur in North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East.

While halting exports from Ukraine and Russia would only raise food costs by 2.6 percent in 2023, a rise in energy and fertilizer prices will trigger a 74 percent increase.

Fertilizer and Food Costs

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine last year, food experts have been warning about the catastrophic impact that high fertilizer prices would have on food security.

Much of the components that go into making modern fertilizers come from Ukraine and Russia. Moscow is a major producer of nutrients like phosphate and potash that are key to manufacturing fertilizers.

A sharp rise in fertilizer costs would lead to farmers using these products less. Fertilizers are key to producing high yields, without which more agricultural land would be needed to produce the world’s food.

According to analysis done by the University of Edinburgh, their simulations suggest that the lack of fertilizers can increase agricultural land by an area that is equivalent to the size of much of Western Europe.

This would have serious negative consequences on deforestation, biodiversity, and carbon emissions, the researchers said.

Fertilizer Crisis

A study by the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) published in November called for urgent action to address the fertilizer crisis. It predicts fertilizer shortages to persist in 2023.

This will threaten food security and agricultural production in Africa in particular, as the continent’s farmers are highly reliant on the import of agricultural inputs.

The study shows that 19 WTO members introduced 41 fertilizer-related measures between Jan. 1, 2021, and Oct. 15, 2022, with 75 percent of them in the form of trade policy measures

“Export-restrictive measures accounted for as much as 41 percent of all fertilizer-related measures while increased tariffs and domestic subsidies have placed further upward pressure on international fertilizer prices, especially since late 2021,” according to a WTO news release on Nov. 14.

The study asked the Group of 20 nations to deploy all available policy measures to deal with the fertilizer situation.

Governments should keep fertilizer, feed, and food markets open while avoiding export restrictions that do not align with WTO rules, it argued.