Should Canadians Expect a Spring Election?

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Gov. Gen. Mary Simon depart after Dominic LeBlanc, not shown, was sworn in as finance minister during a ceremony at Rideau Hall in Ottawa, Ont., on Dec. 16, 2024. Justin Tang/The Canadian Press via AP, File

News Analysis

There are a few scenarios in which Canadians could be heading to the polls for an early federal election this spring, contributing to the political uncertainty that has marked the latter months of 2024.

Two men hold most of the cards for what comes next: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.

Trudeau is said to be reflecting on his political future over the holidays amid mounting calls for him to step down in recent days from both inside and outside the Liberal Party.

Two Liberal MPs, Anthony Housefather and Chandra Arya, have gone on record saying they believe the majority of the Liberal caucus wants Trudeau to resign.

Meanwhile Jagmeet Singh, after also asking for Trudeau’s resignation, said at the end of last week his party will vote to defeat the minority government in a motion of confidence in the new year.

“No matter who is leading the Liberal Party, this government’s time is up,” Singh wrote in a Dec. 20 letter.

If Trudeau decides to remain in power and Singh proceeds with his declaration, opposition parties will have the opportunity to take down the government at the first vote of confidence, triggering a snap election.

The House of Commons returns from the holiday break on Jan. 27. The opposition must be granted days in the House during which it can table non-confidence motions. The Tories have tabled a number of such motions in the past months that have been defeated, including a recent one using Singh’s own words of criticism against the government.

Other than non-confidence motions brought by the opposition, some votes in the House on spending are by default considered matters of confidence. The budget is usually tabled in April, likely representing the latest point at which the minority Liberal government would fall, provided that all opposition parties do not choose to vote against the Liberals in an earlier confidence vote.

In one particular scenario, because of Singh’s threat to take down the government and Trudeau’s desire to stay on and run in the next election as party leader, the prime minister could ask Governor General Mary Simon to prorogue Parliament.

Prorogation would end the parliamentary session and could be potentially followed in late summer by the start of the electoral campaign for the scheduled October 2025 election.

Such a move would go against the will of the majority of the House of Commons and presumably against a number of disenchanted Liberal MPs who want Trudeau off the ballot to improve their chances of holding on to their seat in the next election.

This is a point Housefather made to CBC News on Dec. 22, saying polling data suggests the Liberal Party would fare better without Trudeau at the helm. “We have to be honest about that. That is clear from all of the polling data that we’ve had for the last year,” he said.

The latest Léger poll on decided voters’ intentions gave 43 percent to the Tories compared to 20 percent for the Liberals and 19 percent for the NDP. The poll said 69 percent of respondents want Trudeau to resign, as opposed to 17 percent who want him to stay on.

On who would make the best prime minister, the survey says Trudeau went down four points to 11 percent, behind Singh at 13 percent and Poilievre at 31 percent.

If Trudeau Leaves

There is some added uncertainty if Trudeau chooses to leave. It’s not clear if the Liberal caucus would elect an interim leader to oversee state affairs while the party runs a leadership contest. Such contests typically run long—six months for when Trudeau became leader in 2013—and the Liberals don’t have the luxury of time whether the election is in the spring or the fall.

Another option would be for Trudeau to ask the governor general to prorogue Parliament for a period of time during which the Liberal Party leadership convention would take place.

Given how Trudeau has responded so far to the loss of Liberal strongholds in summer byelections, to cratering poll numbers, and to unprecedented internal pressure, his resignation is not a foregone conclusion.

With the incoming U.S. administration taking power on Jan. 20 and threatening devastating tariffs on Canada, Trudeau could argue the country cannot afford instability at this time. Based on currently known factors, however, that would buy him only a few months.