The Scottish government would be “unlikely” to overcome the opposition from the UK government and succeed in holding a second independence referendum, a former civil servant who negotiated the first independence vote has said.
In the first independence referendum held in 2014, the Scottish electorate voted 55–45 percent to reject independence and remain part of the UK.
Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon kicked off a new campaign for independence on June 14, as she claimed her government has an “indisputable democratic mandate” for another referendum.
But Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the UK government will not grant the Section 30 Order, which is required to hold a second vote.
Sturgeon, who is also leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), said her government would look for a way to hold another vote despite the UK government’s opposition.
Professor Ciaran Martin, who was constitution director at the Cabinet Office between 2011 and 2014, said the Scottish government would be unlikely to win a legal challenge against the UK government, as no court could compel the United Kingdom to dissolve itself.
Speaking to BBC’s The Nine on Wednesday, he said: “Even if, and in my view, it’s unlikely, the Scottish government managed to win their court case. That’s not the end of the UK government’s options to block independence.”
Martin said the current stalemate between the UK and Scottish governments is “completely different” to the discussions had surrounding the independence referendum a decade ago.
He said: “The fundamental difference between now and a decade ago is then the UK government was willing not just to concede a referendum but more importantly to contemplate the breakup of the UK should the referendum be won by the Yes side.
“We’re now in a completely different situation.”
There has been speculation that the Scottish government would pursue a second referendum without a Section 30 Order.
Martin said two things can happen under such circumstances.
One scenario is that the Supreme Court would block the referendum, making any independence vote unlawful.
The other scenario is that the Scottish government goes ahead with a vote, using “slightly weaker form of words” such as “consulting” the people to give the Scottish government a mandate.
If this happens, Martin said, “the UK government and the Unionist parties could say we’re not going to take part. They could say we don’t care what the result of this sham referendum is: we’re not going to facilitate independence.”
