Saskatchewan’s provincial election promises to be the most hotly contested in two decades as the long-governing Saskatchewan Party faces challenges from the NDP and several newer parties on the political right.
The election, set for Oct. 28, was the latest date possible under the province’s fixed election dates. The writ was dropped Oct. 1.
Premier Scott Moe launched his campaign by promising tax relief. His plan calls for raising the personal income tax exemption, spousal exemption, child exemption, and seniors supplement by $500 each year for the next four years—all in addition to automatic increases related to inflation.
“When combined with our government’s indexation of personal tax rates, a family of four will save more than $3,400 and a senior couple will save more than $3,100 over the next four years,” Moe said in an Oct. 1 press release.
The cut to personal income taxes would be the largest since 2008, a year after Brad Wall led the Saskatchewan Party to power for the first time. Moe took over as premier in 2018 and led the party to its fourth straight majority government in 2020.
Carla Beck, a Regina MLA since 2016 and Saskatchewan’s NDP leader since 2022, is campaigning on change, promising to address affordability issues and increase spending on health care and education.
“This election comes down to one question: Are you better off under Scott Moe? Across the board, the answer is no. Our health-care system is in crisis, our kids’ classrooms are underfunded, and families that used to be able to afford that yearly vacation are now struggling just to make ends meet,” Beck said in an Oct. 1 press release.
The NDP has also promised to suspend the 15-cents-per-litre provincial tax on gas and diesel for six months and remove the provincial sales tax from kids’ clothing and ready-to-eat grocery items while not raising taxes.
Beck has also said her party’s promises amount to $3.5 billion over four years with the aim of a balanced budget by the final year.
Both leaders have promised to fully cost out their platforms. Both have also been outspoken opponents of carbon taxes. The Moe government stopped collecting carbon levies on home heating bills in January this year in defiance of Ottawa.
Saskatchewan wrapped up the 2023–24 fiscal year with a $182 million surplus, the province reported in June. The current fiscal year’s first-quarter results increased the 2024–25 forecast deficit to $354 million, up $80.6 million from the 2024–25 budget’s forecast of $273.2 million. Budget spending includes $2.2 billion in school operating funding, up $180 million from last year, and $7.6 billion in health funding, up $726 million from last year, Finance Minister Donna Harpauer said in her budget address in March.
More Parties
The Saskatchewan Party was formed in 1997 by four Progressive Conservative and four Liberal MLAs and has ruled in majority governments since 2007. In the 2020 election, out of 61 seats in the provincial legislative assembly, Moe’s party took 48 seats while the NDP won the remaining 13.There are other parties on the right in this election cycle, including the Buffalo Party, which first ran in the 2020 provincial election, and the Saskatchewan United Party (SUP), registered as a political party in 2022.
The Buffalo Party, which advocates for independence for most of Western Canada, finished at a distant third in the popular vote while placing second in four ridings in 2020. The Buffalo Party and legacy Progressive Conservatives discussed joining forces last month but talks fell through. Both parties will run candidates in the upcoming election, as will the new SUP.
Longtime Sask. Party MLA Nadine Wilson, currently an Independent, and former Sask. Party MLAs Greg Brkich and Denis Allchurch will run under the SUP banner in this year’s election. The party is led by former oil executive Jon Hromek, who placed second in the Lumsden-Morse byelection, a Sask. Party stronghold, in 2023.
The Sask. Party has undergone significant renewal prior to the current campaign, as 22 of the party’s 48 MLAs elected in 2020 are not seeking re-election. The latest Saskatchewan political polling by Insightrix Research for CTV, from September, suggests that the NDP leads in Regina and Saskatoon while the Sask. Party is ahead in areas beyond the province’s two largest cities. Polling aggregator 338Canada.com projects the Sask. Party will win 39 seats and the NDP will win 22.
Main Issues
Among the most heated issues ahead of the election between the governing party and the NDP is Bill 137, the Parents’ Bill of Rights.Moe passed the bill last October using the charter’s notwithstanding clause, requiring schools to obtain consent from parents of students under age 16 before using the student’s new gender-related preferred name or gender identity at school. The legislation also requires that parents be made aware of other important aspects of their child’s school participation.
The NDP, unions, and some advocates remain opposed to the legislation. Saskatchewan’s Court of Appeal on Sept. 24 concluded a two-day hearing in a legal challenge against the bill issued by UR Pride, a peer-to-peer support group for LGBT individuals. The court reserved its decision to a future unspecified date.
Another major issue is health care. Saskatchewan faced long wait times and physician shortages as it emerged from the pandemic. A Health Human Resources Action Plan launched in September 2022 has resulted in 218 physicians recruited from outside the province, including 35 from outside Canada. More than 1,400 nursing graduates have been hired over the past two years, and around 870 new training seats in 33 health-care programs at post-secondary schools have been created across the province.
The NDP is proposing to invest $1.1 billion for recruitment, retention, and retraining of health-care workers including doctors, nurses, and specialists.
Days before the election was called, Saskatchewan Health Minister Everett Hindley wrote to four health-care provider unions inviting them to join a nursing task force that would include nurses and their unions. The idea of a task force to address a nursing shortage was first proposed in 2022 by the Saskatchewan Union of Nurses and has long been supported by the NDP.
In addition, an unresolved teachers’ contract dogged the final year of Moe’s first full term as premier. The Saskatchewan Teachers’ Federation, without a contract since Aug. 31, 2023, rejected a tentative agreement reached in May for a 3 percent increase in 2023–24 and in 2024–25 followed by a 2 percent increase in 2025–26.
A resolution regarding issues of wages and class size and complexity has yet to be found. Proposals by negotiators for the federation and the provincial government will go to binding arbitration in mid-December.
Sask. Party says since its time in power, it has increased the education budget by 112 percent, lowered education property tax reductions, and built 65 new schools. The NDP says it will focus on fixing overcrowding in classrooms by setting appropriate caps on class sizes, ensuring children get the “one-on-one attention they need,” and tackle bullying.
