Sask Budget Forecasts Small Surplus in Face of US and China Tariffs

Saskatchewan Minister of Finance Jim Reiter (R) presents the provincial budget as Premier Scott Moe looks on in Regina on March 19, 2025. The Canadian Press/Liam Richards

Saskatchewan’s government has tabled its 2025–2026 budget with a surplus of $12.1 million, citing U.S. and China tariffs as points of concern.

Finance Minister Jim Reiter delivered the budget on March 19, saying the threat of more tariffs from the United States presents a challenge. The government has opted to prioritize its affordability promises like pausing property taxes and cutting personal taxes.

U.S. President Donald Trump has put 25 percent tariffs on Canadian imports, with a lower 10 percent on energy imports; however, he has paused the tariffs on items covered by the USMCA free trade agreement. But more tariffs are expected after his officials review existing trade agreements by April 2.

Meanwhile, China has announced 100 percent tariffs on canola oil, canola meal, and peas. The move is in response to levies Canada imposed on Chinese-made electric vehicles, aluminum, and steel.

Reiter said it wasn’t possible to create a contingency for the effects of tariffs into the books.

“The uncertainties will show why including any amount of contingency this time would not be realistic,” Reiter told reporters before introducing the budget in the legislature to open the spring sitting.

He said if the tariffs are on for an extended period, the province would be pushed into a deficit position.

“We understand this budget is being delivered at a very volatile time, due to the constantly changing tariff threats from the United States,” Reiter said. “Right now, we do not know what tariffs the U.S. may impose or how long they may last.”

He said the province’s financial position put it in a good position to weather tariffs.

As part of the affordability measures in the budget, the government has raised the basic personal tax exemption, spousal and equivalent-to-spousal exemption, dependent children exemption, and the seniors supplement by $500 a year for the next four years.

The government said the move was the largest reduction in personal income tax since 2008.

The Active Families Benefit was also doubled from $150 to $300 per child. The income threshold to qualify for the refundable tax credit has been raised to $120,000 for families who pay for sports, arts, cultural, and recreational activities throughout the year.

Saskatchewan will also maintain the small business tax rate at 1 percent.

The government also said it will reduce the education mill rate for homeowners to “absorb the increase in property assessment values.” It’s a move that the province says will save property owners more than $100 million.

The budget also includes $362 million in municipal revenue sharing, which is an increase of $22 million from last year, according to a March 19 government news release.

NDP Leader Carla Beck criticized the government for not making plans for a tariff contingency fund.

Beck said the budget was not focused on the future.

“This budget has no plan for our economy and pretends the last three months haven’t happened,” she said. “No measures to protect workers, producers, businesses, or industry from tariffs.”

This is the first budget Moe’s government has introduced since being re-elected in fall 2024.

Health

The government says that health capital funding will increase by $140 million, for a total of $657 million in this year’s budget.

The funding includes an increase of $485 million for the Ministry of Health for a total $8.1 billion, Sask Health Authority will see a $261 million increase to $4.9 billion, and the Sask Cancer Agency will see a increase of $30 million to $279 million, according to the release.

Mental health and addictions programs and services will see $624 million, which will cover the provincial Mental Health and Addictions Plan to expand treatment spaces across the province to 500.

Education

The Ministry of Education is set to receive $3.5 billion, an increase of $184 million from the previous year, according to the government.

The sum also includes an increase of $130 million to fund the new teacher collective agreement and address growing student enrollment and the challenges facing today’s classrooms.

Law Enforcement

The Ministry of Corrections, Policing and Public Safety will receive $798 million. It includes $119 million for the Saskatchewan Public Safety Agency.

Saskatchewan’s Ministry of Justice and Attorney General will receive $271 million.

The money will cover the hiring of 100 new municipal police officers, 14 new Safer Communities and Neighbourhoods personnel, and funding for the Saskatchewan Police College to train more officers in the province, the government said.

Alberta and BC Tariff Plans

Saskatchewan’s neighbour, Alberta, has forecast a $5.2 billion deficit in its 2025/26 budget, but has made plans for a contingency fund to respond to tariffs.

Unlike Saskatchewan, Alberta has increased its contingency fund from $2 billion in 2024 to $4 billion this year.

In B.C., the government budget has an $11 billion deficit. The province has also set aside $4 billion in a contingency fund to prepare for the impact of tariffs.

The Canadian Press and Carolina Avendano contributed to this article.