President Donald Trump returned to the White House last month vowing to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, which has just entered its fourth year.
The administration has already made considerable progress to this end, pursuing a relatively friendly approach to Moscow and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
On the same day, U.S. and Russian officials met in Istanbul, where they agreed on a range of measures aimed at normalizing relations after years of hostility.
Two weeks earlier, Putin and Trump held a landmark phone conversation, which the latter subsequently described as “lengthy and highly productive.”
The next day, Trump called for Russia’s readmission to the G7 (formerly G8) group of nations, from which Moscow withdrew in 2017 after its membership was suspended three years earlier.
“I’d love to have them back,” Trump told reporters. “I think it was a mistake to throw them out.”
Sergey Shoigu, head of Russia’s Security Council, has described Trump’s conciliatory approach to Moscow as nothing short of “revolutionary.”
According to Stanislav Aleksandrovich Pritchin, a Russian political analyst, Shoigu’s cautious optimism coincides largely with Russian public opinion.
“During Trump’s first term, expectations were high [in Russia] that bilateral relations would develop positively,” Pritchin told The Epoch Times.
“But this failed to materialize,” he said.
“For this reason, Russian public opinion is still divided on Trump,” added Pritchin, who heads the Central Asia desk at Moscow’s Institute of World Economy and International Relations.
Ferit Temur, a Turkish political analyst specialized in Eurasian affairs, said public perceptions of Trump in Russia are “generally positive.”
“There is an expectation that Trump’s approach will be effective in finding a solution—in Moscow’s favor—to the Ukraine issue,” Temur, who has studied and worked in both Russia and Ukraine, told The Epoch Times.
On Feb. 18, U.S. and Russian officials—including both countries’ top diplomats—held a first round of talks in Saudi capital Riyadh to discuss possible means of ending the conflict.
Since then, both sides have repeatedly said that preparations are now underway for a face-to-face meeting between Putin and Trump.
“The first stage of negotiations in Riyadh, and Trump’s positive statements vis-à-vis Russia, have been well received by the Russian public,” Pritchin said.
“They have created a basis for optimism regarding upcoming talks and a potential resolution of the Ukraine crisis,” he added.
However, Pritchin also asserted that the two sides continue to have “different visions” regarding “certain aspects of international relations.”
“Therefore,” he added, “some Russians—especially experts—aren’t entirely sure that these moves [by the Trump administration] will lead to a full restoration of ties.”
Facing Reality
In February 2022, Russia invaded and—after holding referendums—effectively annexed four regions of eastern Ukraine, which it now regards as Russian territory.According to Moscow, its “special military operation” in Ukraine was aimed at protecting ethnic Russians and halting NATO’s further eastward expansion.
Moscow also asserts that Kyiv’s 2014 “Maidan” uprising, which swept Ukraine’s pro-Russia president from power, was a U.S.-orchestrated “coup,” otherwise known as a “color revolution.”
Russia’s terms for ending the current conflict include the withdrawal of all Ukrainian forces from the four regions claimed by Russia (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia) and guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO.
On Feb. 26, Trump said he would “try very hard” in upcoming talks with Russia to ensure that Ukraine gets “as much [territory] back as possible.”
But in previous remarks, members of Trump’s foreign policy team have conceded that any future settlement would have to take battlefield “realities” into account.
Shortly before Trump’s inauguration, his national security adviser, Mike Waltz, told ABC News: “I just don’t think it’s realistic to say we’re going to expel every Russian from every inch of Ukrainian soil.”
According to Waltz, Trump has also “acknowledged that reality.”
Since returning to office, Trump has made a number of statements suggesting that Moscow’s concerns about NATO enlargement were justified.
“They’ve been saying that for a long time—that Ukraine can’t go into NATO,” he added. “And I’m okay with that.”
On Feb. 26, Trump went further, saying Ukraine could “forget about” joining the Western alliance.
Pritchin described Trump’s acknowledgment of Russia’s security concerns—as they pertain to NATO enlargement—as a “very positive” sign.
“However,” he said, “there are certain European leaders who lack this understanding, and who will continue to pursue policies that threaten Russia.”
“Even with a better understanding between Russia and the United States,” he added, “it will be difficult to reach a compromise in this Russia–EU–U.S. triangle.”
“For this reason, I remain skeptical about the short-term prospect of setting up a stable security architecture in Europe,” Pritchin said.
According to Temur, recent divergences between the Trump administration and Washington’s traditional allies in Europe could provide Russia with opportunities to “maximize its regional and global interests.”
Strong but Impetuous
While the Russian public sees Trump as a strong leader, the U.S. president is also perceived by many as rash and impulsive, according to Pritchin.“He’s viewed as a strong leader with an ability to make difficult decisions,” Pritchin said. “But he’s not consistent or systematic.”
“He’s impetuous and can easily change his mind, which creates an atmosphere of unpredictability,” he added. “So expectations among the Russian public are guarded.”
Pritchin cited Trump’s stormy relations with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy as an example of the U.S. president’s seeming inconsistency.
In a Feb. 19 social-media post, Trump described Zelenskyy—whose presidential term expired last year—as an unpopular “dictator,” later calling on Kyiv to hold fresh elections.
Zelenskyy has suggested that Trump had been duped by Russian “disinformation.”
According to Pritchin, many Russians were gratified by Trump’s characterization of the Ukrainian leader as a “dictator.”
Moscow, he said, has “consistently stressed the impossibility of signing any agreements with him because he isn’t the legitimate president.”
“But here we see another reversal by Trump, who just walked back his earlier statements regarding Zelenskyy,” Pritchin said.
At a Feb. 27 joint press conference with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Trump was asked by a reporter if he still viewed Zelenskyy as a “dictator.”
The next day, Zelenskyy met Trump at the White House to sign an agreement to jointly develop Ukrainian mineral resources with the United States.
The deal, however, was overshadowed by a dramatic—and very public—spat, in which Zelenskyy openly challenged Trump’s recent overtures to Moscow and Putin.
Trump accused the Ukrainian leader of “gambling with World War Three,” warning that if Kyiv refused to make compromises for peace it risked forfeiting U.S. support.
