In recent days, Western powers have been warning about and making diplomatic moves related to what they say is a concerning buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine. But a Canadian defence expert says although the situation is unpredictable, the risk of an invasion by Russia is slim.
“Putin always plays his cards to a domestic audience,” he says of the Russian president.
“But whether or not he’s willing to act upon it or just showcase that power? Well, we know he’s capable of it because he did it a few years back in 2014, so there’s always that risk that something will come out of it,” Cormier said, referring to the Russian invasion and subsequent annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.
The paper also warns about Putin wanting to take over Ukraine as a means to bolster his legacy. Cormier, however, doesn’t believe Russia has the intention to conquer all of Ukraine, as it is more interested in creating a sphere of influence and imposing its will rather than trying to break up countries.
“I don’t think it’s realistic to say that they could pull off something similar to what they pulled off in 2014,” he says. “The game has changed a lot since 2014. … There wasn’t the same kind of forward presence of Western troops in the area.”
Warnings
The United States has warned its European allies about the troop buildup, and some Republican House representatives have written to U.S. President Joe Biden calling on him to send additional support to Ukraine.“I cannot go into details about our intelligence,” Stoltenberg said during a press conference with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. “We know that Russia has been willing to use these types of military capabilities before to conduct aggressive actions against Ukraine.”
Intelligence
Some of the intelligence probably informing the United States and NATO was revealed at the beginning of November when Politico published satellite imagery showing a large amount of military vehicles stationed in a camp in the Russian town of Yelnya, closer to Belarus than Ukraine. Politico said the formation included elements of the elite 1st Guards Tank Army.Politico and Bloomberg have quoted defence intelligence firm Janes as saying there was movement of equipment in other areas. Politico said equipment from Russia’s 4th Tank Division was being moved to areas around Bryansk and Kursk, which border Ukraine.
According to Bloomberg, at least a battalion of tanks appeared to be headed to the Pogonovo training ground via rail, located in the Voronezh region bordering Ukraine, based on social media footage from Nov. 7.
Janes said that while an escalation in the Ukrainian conflict was not immediately apparent, “the movements do appear to be outside of regular cycles for Russian Ground Troops.”
Support for Ukraine
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said in a tweet on Nov. 15 that “Canada is deeply concerned by the recent movement of Russian military near Ukraine’s border.”“We call on Russia to reduce tensions and to provide transparency in its military activities,” she wrote.
The statement says Yermak informed Freeland about the security situation in eastern Ukraine but did not give any details about their conversation. Yermak also expressed his appreciation “for the consolidated support of the world community and Canada.”
UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace was in Ukraine on Nov. 16 to meet with President Zelenskiy, as well as his counterpart Oleksii Reznikov.
Cormier says Western support for Ukraine is having an impact.
“The credible deterrent that Russia is up against right now is when France and the UK and Canada and all these NATO countries reaffirm their support for Ukraine’s integrity and territorial integrity,” he says.
“It could very well be why Russia is building up forces but not actually acting upon it. They realize that it would be a very dangerous move.”