- A Ukrainian soldier prepares to fire a French-made CAESAR self-propelled howitzer toward Russian positions near Avdiivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine, on Dec. 26, 2022. (Libkos/AP Photo)
Wagner Chief: Counteroffensive ‘Inevitable’
There have been indications that Kyiv’s upcoming offensive would focus on the Donetsk region, where Ukrainian forces face superior Russian firepower near the flashpoint towns of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.According to recent reports from Ukraine’s military, Bakhmut—a strategically vital transport hub—remains the primary focus of fighting.
But other signs suggest that Kyiv’s offensive could strike at the southern, Russian-held Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in hopes of severing Moscow’s land corridor to Crimea.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of Russia’s Wagner Group, has predicted that the vaunted counter-offensive would begin in earnest early next month–after the region’s rainy season ends.
The Wagner Group, a Kremlin-linked private military company, has led the fighting in several flashpoint areas, including Bakhmut.
“The Ukrainian offensive is inevitable,” Prigozhin said via Telegram on April 26. “The Ukrainian army is primed and ready.
“Rains are expected to end on May 2. Another week is needed for the soil to dry. Will they do it on May 9 to spoil the holiday?”
On May 9, Russia will celebrate National Victory Day, which commemorates the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.
NATO Confirms Arms Deliveries
Earlier this month, scores of classified U.S. military documents were leaked online, many of which were said to pertain to Ukraine’s long-anticipated counteroffensive.Some documents suggested that Kyiv lacked badly needed arms and equipment, raising questions as to whether the offensive would materialize.
But in recent days, Ukrainian military officials have declared repeatedly that the long-awaited counter-attack—to the east or south—was imminent.
“As soon as there is God’s will, the [right] weather, and a decision by commanders, we will do it,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said at an April 28 press briefing.
A day earlier, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg confirmed that the Western alliance had delivered almost all of the tanks and combat vehicles it had so far pledged to Kyiv.
“More than 98 percent of the combat vehicles promised to Ukraine have already been delivered,” he told reporters at NATO’s Brussels headquarters.
According to Stoltenberg, that includes more than 1,550 armored vehicles, 230 combat tanks, and “vast amounts of ammunition.”
He noted that NATO had also “trained and equipped” nine Ukrainian armored brigades, which would put Kyiv “in a strong position to continue to retake occupied territory.”
‘Unlikely to Shift Momentum’
Stoltenberg’s assertions were echoed by Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s top military commander and commander of U.S. forces in Europe.“I am very confident that we have delivered the materiel that they [the Ukrainians] need, and we’ll continue a pipeline to sustain their operations as well,” Cavoli was quoted as saying by The New York Times on April 26.
However, the newspaper also cited assessments by U.S. officials who believed that the offensive was “unlikely to dramatically shift momentum in Ukraine’s favor.”
Moscow has accused the West of “no longer hiding” its “direct involvement” in the ongoing conflict, now in its 15th month.
“They don’t even hide the fact that they are behind all this military planning,” a Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said on April 27.
“Not only tactical support but also the disposition [of forces] in line with their strategic plan.”
