Russia Swears Off Boeing and Airbus, Seeks to Build Self-Reliant Aviation Industry

Grounded Boeing 737 MAX aircraft parked at Boeing facilities at Grant County International Airport in Moses Lake, Wash., on Nov. 17, 2020. Lindsey Wasson/Reuters

The Russian aviation industry is preparing to ditch big manufacturers such as Boeing Co. and Airbus SE, aiming to focus on producing necessary aircraft locally.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Western countries imposed sanctions on Moscow that severely affected its aviation sector. Due to prevailing sanctions, Russia can’t secure the required spare parts to maintain its foreign-manufactured aircraft. Rostec, a state-owned defense conglomerate, is looking at the situation as an opportunity to boost local aircraft manufacturing.

“Foreign aircraft will drop out of the fleet,” Rostec told Reuters. “We believe that this process is irreversible and Boeing and Airbus planes will never be delivered to Russia. ... We don’t expect sanctions to be eased and we are building our plans based on the existing tough scenario.”

Aircraft made by foreign manufacturers such as Airbus and Boeing are used for 95 percent of Russia’s passenger traffic. Of the 1,287 aircraft that operated in Russia as of April 20, only 470 were planes produced in the country, Interfax reported, citing ministry data.

The ministry’s baseline scenario estimates the total fleet in Russia to shrink to 999 aircraft by 2025, including 427 foreign-made aircraft. By 2030, fleet numbers are expected to jump to 1,602, including 208 foreign aircraft, due to boosted domestic output.

Between 2022 and 2030, Russia has said it plans on delivering 1,036 passenger planes.

Richard Aboulafia, managing director of U.S.-based AeroDynamic Advisory, told Reuters that Russia’s plan to build 1,036 airliners within seven years is “basically impossible.”

Russia and the former Soviet Union have only built a total of about 2,000 large commercial airliners, he pointed out.

“Even when they could get semiconductors and other vital components from the West, they were having a very hard time producing more than a handful of jets," Aboulafia said.

Cannibalizing Other Aircraft

In June, the Russian government advised airline companies to use parts from some of their aircraft to make sure that the remaining planes can keep operating at least through 2025.

At present, there is no national regulation as to how airlines can use existing parts to repair their fleets. The aviation industry has asked the government to codify rules on the practice. The new regulation is expected to come into effect by early 2023.

Even if Russia seeks to secure aircraft components via other nations that don’t face any sanctions from the West, firms in these countries aren’t likely to do business with Russia due to fears of retaliation.

Moscow is forecasting passenger traffic to remain unchanged at 100 million this year. However, traffic is expected to drop to 76.3 million in 2025 as per the baseline scenario, while a pessimistic scenario notes traffic falling to 58.2 million passengers by 2025.