JOHANNESBURG—Military instructors from Russia’s Africa Corps, successors to the Wagner Group, have arrived in the West African nation of Niger, with a complete air defense system and other weaponry, security analysts told The Epoch Times.
They’re the latest troops to enter one of Africa’s most dangerous battlegrounds, the Sahel desert region, where jihadists are fighting government forces from several West African countries, including Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.
Senior army officers have staged coups in these countries, expelling French forces who had been battling several terrorist organizations, most notably al-Qaeda and ISIS.
“The West should be very worried about what’s happening in the Sahel,” Dean Wingrin, a military analyst at Johannesburg-based DefenceWeb, a portal that analyzes security and defense-related developments in Africa, told The Epoch Times.
“Russia is strengthening its grip on one of Africa’s most strategically important areas, and one Moscow could use to launch actions into other parts of Africa and beyond. The United States is the big loser under this scenario because you can bet China will be hot on the heels of its partner to win even more influence in West and North Africa.”
The U.N. says the Sahel is also one of the world’s most youthful regions, with almost 65 percent of the population being younger than 25.
“Therefore, investments in education and vocational training could yield huge demographic dividends. The Sahel is also endowed with enormous renewable energy potential; it has more solar energy production capacity than other regions of the world,” part of the U.N.’s brief reads.
Russia’s Africa Corps already controls many oil fields in Libya and gold and diamond mines across Central Africa.
Both West and Central Africa are also the scenes of several ongoing conflicts and jihadist rebellions.
“Russia’s entrance into the Sahel is straight out of the Wagner playbook,” Mr. Wingrin said.
“The Kremlin sends its mercenaries into conflict-ridden areas, props up dictators and military juntas who are always at risk of losing power, and in exchange, Russia gains access to immense amounts of mineral wealth.”
Moscow sent 100 Africa Corps troops to Burkina Faso in late January.
The Africa Corps stated on Telegram that the “servicemen” had flown to Burkina Faso to “ensure the safety of the country’s leader Ibrahim Traore and the Burkinabe people.”
African Initiative, a pro-Moscow Russian news agency, said the Russian troops would train Burkinabe soldiers and “help patrol dangerous areas.”
Niger’s Tele Sahel broadcaster on April 18 showed a Russian transport plane arriving at Niamey Airport.
It stated that “the latest military equipment and military instructors from the Russian Defense Ministry” had arrived and that Russia would “install an air defense system ... to ensure complete control of our airspace.”
The broadcaster quoted a Russian instructor as saying: “We are here to train the Niger army and help it use the equipment that has just arrived. The equipment is for different military specialities.”
The arrival of the Africa Corps in Niger followed a telephone conversation between the leader of Niger’s military government, Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani, and Russian President Vladimir Putin in late March.
At the time, local media reported that the two leaders discussed “security cooperation” and “global strategic cooperation” against “current threats.”
Under the terms of that pact, the United States built several installations, including a desert drone base costing $110 million, in northern Niger and has 1,000 troops in the country.
“American soldiers are still in Niger, but they ceased military operations last July, after the coup,” said professor Deon Visser, military analyst at Stellenbosch University in South Africa.
“At face value, Niger may not seem so important to the United States. But one must remember it has been a crucial springboard for the U.S. Army to fight terrorism in Africa since 2013. The fact that America has now been rejected and replaced by Russia is a significant blow to the United States on several levels, including psychologically and on the propaganda front.”
“The loss of the bases in Niger creates real problems for U.S. interests in Africa while serving as a tremendous boost to Russia and China,” he said.
“American drones launched from Niger have been extremely successful in monitoring and collecting intelligence on ISIS and al-Qaeda, across the Sahel but also in Chad, Cameroon, and Nigeria. I’m pretty sure these actions have led to the elimination of more than a couple of terrorist leaders in the past decade.”
Should U.S. forces withdraw completely from Niger, China would likely “enter the breach,” according to Mr. Visser.
Writing for Military.com, professors of political science Michael A. Allen of Boise State University, Carla Martinez Machain of the University of Buffalo, and Michael E. Flynn of Kansas State University said the United States is now looking for alternatives to its lost drone bases in Niger.
“While the United States has historically worked with and can influence nations where the military also runs the government, in the post-Cold War period the United States generally aligns itself with democratic countries.
“As United States rivals such as China and Russia gain influence in the region, it may become more expensive for the United States to set up new military bases in Africa. Research shows that when host states can choose between major powers to cooperate with, it requires more economic incentives to gain their favor. This means that it is not clear to what extent the United States can maintain a presence in western and central Africa.”
Mr. Wingrin said that the “inevitable” withdrawal of U.S. troops would be “an end to all hopes for the West to maintain relations with Sahel countries, and a trumpet call to Russia and China to enter the region with significant forces.”
Mucahid Durmaz, senior West Africa analyst at global risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, told The Epoch Times: “Washington’s main concern was to prevent Russia from entering the Sahel arena militarily. Africa Corps are already deployed to Mali and Burkina Faso.”
Sahel military governments are ramping up anti-Western actions.
On April 18, Burkina Faso expelled three French diplomats for “subversive activities.”
After coming to power in a September 2022 coup, the junta began distancing itself from France, which ruled the country until 1960. It canceled a 1961 military accord between the two countries, and the French ambassador was withdrawn after the coup.
On Dec. 1, 2023, four French officials were arrested, charged, and imprisoned in the capital Ouagadougou, with Burkinabe authorities accusing them of being “spies” for French intelligence.
Paris insisted that they were IT support staff.
“It’s an understatement, but things are not looking good in the neighborhood for the West,” Mr. Visser said. “Things could get a lot worse, because the military leader of Chad visited Putin and the Kremlin in late January.”
Mahamat Deby seized power in Chad following a coup in 2021.
After their meeting, Mr. Putin congratulated Mr. Deby on his success in “stabilizing” Chad, saying Russia was closely monitoring the country’s security situation.
