Retired Army Officer, Former State Department Official Weigh In on Israel Attacks

Artillery shells are lined up next to an armoured vehicle as Israeli soldiers take positions near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 9, 2023. Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images

Retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. Darin Gaub and former U.S. State Department official Gabriel Noronha are offering their assessments of the recent attacks on Israel, how the Israeli military will respond, and how Iran may have contributed to the carnage from behind the scenes.

Mr. Noronha believes Iran played at least some role in enabling Palestinian groups to breach the Israel–Gaza barrier and carry out widespread attacks across southern Israel on Oct. 7.

“Iran has not yet entered the fight, but they’ve supported it at every step,” Mr. Noronha said in an interview with NTD’s “Capitol Report” on Tuesday. “They previously have provided $100 million in aid to Hamas each year, sometimes going as high as $300 million. They trained 6,500 of their fighters previously. They funneled rockets, weapons, munition rounds, guns, and so they’re responsible for this war.”

Mr. Noronha served as the special adviser for the Iran Action Group at the U.S. Department of State from 2019 to 2021 and is now a fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA).

Mr. Noronha said the Iranian government has never directly attacked Israel, but said the latest attacks against the country are consistent with an Iranian strategy of equipping proxy forces throughout the Middle East to attack Israel.

“What they do is they send missiles and various equipment to Syria to Lebanon to Gaza Strip, and allow their proxies and militias to do the fighting for them,” Mr. Noronha said. “And the reason is because Iran always wants to avoid a direct confrontation. They don’t like having missiles launched back at them into Iran.”

Thus far, U.S. and Israeli officials have yet to specify a direct link between Iran and the Oct. 7 attacks launched into southern Israel.

At a White House press briefing on Monday, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said neither the United States nor Israel had identified a specific “smoking gun” but said that Iran still holds a “degree of complicity” in the attacks due to its historic support for Hamas, which is designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. government. Mr. Kirby said the U.S. and Israeli governments would continue investigating the possibility of direct Iranian involvement in the attack.

The Iranian government has also denied specific involvement in the attacks, but has endorsed the actions of the Palestinian terrorists involved.

“So in the early hours of the war, [Iranian officials] were very giddy and talking about how they fully supported the action. And then as I think they realized the magnitude of what Hamas had done, they realized they may have bit off a little too much,” Mr. Noronha assessed.

The former State Department official said Iranian officials are denying direct involvement in the attacks on Israel to avoid being targeted in an Israeli response.

As of Tuesday afternoon, the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs placed preliminary casualty assessments from the attacks on Israel at approximately 900 people killed and 2,700 wounded. The Israeli government estimated another 100 people have been taken hostage in Gaza.

Israel’s ‘Octopus Strategy’

Mr. Noronha said Israel could target Iran if it ultimately determines the Iranian government played a role in the recent attacks. He explained that Israel has a doctrine known as the “octopus strategy,” so named because it calls for striking the head of the proverbial octopus, rather than simply attacking its tentacles.

“[Israel] won’t just hit the tentacles like Hamas and Hezbollah, they will strike the head of the octopus, which is Iran,” Mr. Noronha said.

He added that Israel may take time to ultimately assign culpability to Iran and retaliate.

“I don’t expect that to happen today or tomorrow, but ... in the coming months, I think we will see Israel retaliate to what it views as the ultimate party responsible for these horrific attacks,” Mr. Noronha said.

Thus far, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have conducted strikes throughout the Gaza Strip and have blockaded the territory following the Oct. 7 attacks. IDF officials have stated the ultimate goal of their retaliatory military campaign—dubbed “Operation Swords of Iron”—will be to destroy Gaza-based terrorist groups, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

IDF Chief Spokesman Brig. Gen. Daniel Hagari said on Sunday morning that the Israeli military is making preliminary plans to send ground forces into Gaza to clear out the Palestinian terrorists and could mobilize hundreds of thousands of reserve forces for such an operation.

As of Tuesday afternoon, Gaza’s health ministry placed preliminary casualty assessments at 765 people killed and more than 4,000 wounded as a result of Israeli strikes on Gaza.

Mr. Gaub said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should feel encouraged to “do what’s best for Israel” regardless of public opinion about the ongoing fighting, but said the United States should still offer some guidance for how to exercise restraint.

“[Mr. Netanyahu] knows better than anybody what war is like over there. Their family has a history of fighting on the side of Israel at many levels, and he’s exactly the kind of leader Israel needs,” the U.S. Army veteran said. “And I think we need to talk with him and offer our support to him and just, you know, maybe make some recommendations here and there, that they not expand it too far, but to be willing to do whatever is necessary for the survival and sovereignty of Israel.”

How Will the US Respond

Since the attacks on Israel, the U.S. military has already ordered the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group to reposition to the eastern Mediterranean Sea, placing the carrier’s airwing and supporting guided missile cruisers and destroyers closer to Israel’s shoreline. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has also ordered the U.S. Air Force to deploy additional F-35, F-15, F-16, and A-10 fighter aircraft squadrons to bases in the region.

Mr. Gaub said the additional U.S. military warships and aircraft can serve as a deterrent against future attacks on Israel, but he’s hopeful that U.S. forces will not become directly involved in the fighting.

“Our Constitution says those decisions and declarations of war are made inside the Congress because that’s how it’s supposed to work,” the U.S. Army veteran said. “The presidents are prone to want to just go to war, leaders are want to just go to war right away. We as a nation make these decisions through our representatives. We don’t have a king. So that’s critical to remind the American people that Congress needs to make that decision.”

Mr. Noronha called on Congress to take some action to at least replenish Israel’s stocks of military equipment and stressed that the House of Representatives needs to move quickly to appoint a new speaker in order to facilitate such efforts. The House is set to hold a vote on Wednesday to select the next speaker, after Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) brought a motion last week to oust Rep. Kevin McCarthy from the position.

House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) have both launched bids to become the next speaker. Both lawmakers have expressed support for Israel and condemnation of the Hamas attacks. As his first order of business if selected as the next speaker, Mr. Jordan said “there’ll be some resolution on the floor to support the state of Israel.”

Mr. McCarthy initially said he would not seek a return to the speakership. Following the attacks on Israel however, Mr. McCarthy expressed newfound openness reprising his speakership role if the selection process becomes deadlocked.

“It is important that the House Republican Conference decide on a speaker, whether that’s bringing Kevin McCarthy back, whether that’s Scalise or Jim Jordan, and ... that decision needs to be made fast. Because it’s important that aid get approved ... to Israel shortly,” Mr. Noronha told NTD on Tuesday. “We need to replenish their supplies of Iron Dome interceptors, munitions, aid. There’s there’s a lot to do here.”

While Mr. Noronha urged the United States to replenish Israel’s weapon stocks, Mr. Gaub expressed some reservations about the United States becoming overextended with providing support to both Israel and Ukraine.

“I’m concerned about continuing to fund and provide logistics to Ukraine at the same time we’re doing that to Israel, really, which is impacting our military readiness here and the ability to respond to threats elsewhere around the globe,” Mr. Gaub said. “So first of all, I think Israel can handle what is happening right now. And if it doesn’t go bigger than this, by and large, we just need to stay out of it and let them settle it.”

From NTD News